Crossover Kid

Magnas inter opes inops

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

@alexolegimas My intuition is that we are still very early, so this isn’t a big issue.

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

@alexolegimas Taking data at face value, question is if slower adoption of Fable is evidence we are locally saturating marginal demand for higher intelligence / capabilities. Given cost/fixed unit of intelligence is declining fast, need Q demanded at the frontier to keep growing very rapidly

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

There would be far fewer drugs if there were no patents!

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

Many reasons why this wouldn’t be the case (RSI, limits of distillation, switching costs, etc) - but it is conceivable that a fully commoditized model layer wherein impossible to recoup training costs in economic profit would be bad for semis/world.

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

@Duderichy https://t.co/Flo7y9jCAn

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

@duncancampbell @johnarnold Related point, but much like stocks I think people index on their expectations for the future moreso vs. present conditions. To extent those expectations have diminished / become more uncertain vs. prior, unsurprising people feel things have gotten worse.

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

@deanwball I think a fair number of elites have updated intellectually, though I’d be curious how many have deeply internalized it. To wit, understanding the underlying drivers of progress and reckoning with the likely consequences. Exponentials are hard!

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

@ModeledBehavior Generally agree, though at least over the short/medium-term you need to contend with the geographic concentration of datacenters/compute which are both heavily skewed to US & China. Capital, energy, and chip restriction reqs likely to keep this the case for some time.

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

dorsey read the citrini memo and decided it starts with him

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

The old world is dying and the new struggles to be born - Antonio Gramsci on SaaS in 2025

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

Live footage out of DC

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

Chutes and cliff jumps have nothing on low nets and tight risk controls

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

@enlightenedcoop I think you mean a safe boyfriend that feels very dangerous

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

@enlightenedcoop @vanillaopinions Lol Seattle over Austin for sure

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

Austin in a single image

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

I’m seeing a lot of retail for rent signs around downtown SF, clearly a sign of nationwide consumer macro weakness

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

Only ever been four ways to get sh*t rich in Australia: mines, media, real estate, and bug fix software

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

Landing at MSP always feels like beaming down to a less technologically developed but highly functional society in Star Trek

[Crossover Kid @CrossoverKiddo]

@MRatable This guy is short rates, a man after my own heart 😍