Crypto刘青松

大餅信仰者，Web3從業人，運營老油條。🎾🎬🎵

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

即将见证新的历史。🫡

一年前是天才法案，一年后是清晰法案，前进步伐无法阻挡。

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

👍

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

《Circle稳定币网络全景图》从强网络效应护城河的构建角度去看Circle与币安的深度合作。昨晚披露币安跟Circle的深度合作，对于Circle来说跟最大的加密交易所进一步深度绑定，意义重大。但更深入的去看，这就是一个如何一步步从无到有建立起业务护城河和典型商业案例。

8月初有聊过，强网络效应平台的护城河，核心是“规模+密度+切换成本”。这些东西在起步阶段几乎都不存在，必须靠产品、补贴、营销、收购或监管套利，在真实竞争中一点一点积累。一旦过了临界点，效应会自我强化，看起来像“天生壁垒”，但回头看，几乎没有一家是躺着拿到的。

1、再回看Circle在CEX上的布局
1）coinbase自然不用说，USDC最核心的深度分销关系，“储备分成+全产品介入”模式；
2）币安，之前已经开始战略合作，昨晚更深度合作之后，这已经是Circle目前唯一同时具备股权 + 长期激励费 + 钱包基础设施嵌入的交易所关系，绑定深度仅次于Coinbase；
3）OKX
去年7月战略合作，给6000万+用户提供1:1的USD↔USDC兑换，打通银行出入金，并做教育和社区推广，

今年9月再升级，扩大OKX现货、保证金、期货里的USDC计价市场；推出由Circle出资的USDC保证金增长计划（满足持仓和交易量条件可领奖励）。跟OKX合作，从出入金打通，做到交易场景全覆盖

4）Bybit：把USDC从交易对扩到理财、返现和日常支付
5）Kraken：补USDC深度，同时导入EURC

2、Circle的整体布局
除了CEX的布局动作，还要把Circle在链上、企业资金流、支付、银行层面的合作放在一起看。以前 Circle 是：
发行 USDC，让更多交易所支持 USDC。

现在它正在变成：
用 Coinbase、Binance、Hyperliquid 控制“钱停在哪里”；
用 Intuit、JCB、Nium、Tazapay 控制“钱怎么流”；
再用 CPN + Arc 尝试控制“钱怎么结算”。

这意味着USDC开始争夺交易和支付系统里的“默认结算资产”位置。

3、Circle已经开始形成一张完整的分销网络：
银行美元
→ BNY / Standard Chartered
→ USDC
→ Coinbase / Binance / Hyperliquid
→ CPN / Arc
→ Nium / Tazapay / JCB / Intuit
→ 企业、商户、个人

这个网络也是分层的：
1）交易平台解决的是“USDC 放在哪里、拿来交易什么、能不能当保证金”；
2）支付平台解决的是“USDC 能不能真正进入企业资金流、商户收款和跨境结算”；
3）再往下一层，Arc + CPN 则试图把这些合作伙伴连接成 Circle 自己的一套网络。

一旦这个闭环真正跑起来，USDC 的竞争逻辑就会变成：
“谁控制的美元结算网络更广、场景更深、用户资金停留时间更长。”

最后就形成下面这幅《Circle 稳定币网络全景图》，这样我们会直观地看出 CRCL 已经从“稳定币发行商”走到哪一步。

也是8月初推文聊到的：稳定币法案通过也才一年时间，稳定币领域正在打这场垒“网络效应”筑“护城河”的仗，战斗正酣。

之前聊60上下是Cricle的安全边际：
https://t.co/b0dvHyqyC0
之前对Circle的理解竞争力的理解： https://t.co/cyuMsZ1xZZ
现在能看出来网络效应正在初步建立，虽然还没有完全建立支配地位，但这个势头已经开始显现

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

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[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Bitcoin’s SuperCycle

A supercycle is more than a long bull market. It is a structural re-rating, usually lasting at least five years, in which an asset’s role in the global economy changes so profoundly that the old valuation framework no longer applies.

Commodity supercycles emerge when a new source of demand meets constrained supply. China’s entry into the World Trade Organisation in 2001 is the modern example. China did not invent steel, copper, oil or coal. It unlocked a vast new market for them.

The commodities did not change. The market around them did.
Bitcoin may be approaching a similar institutional opening.

For most of its existence, Bitcoin has been a scarce global asset constrained by limited access to conventional capital. Banks faced legal uncertainty, pension funds faced custody and compliance hurdles, and corporations faced accounting and reputational risk. Bitcoin therefore traded largely as a speculative asset, driven by retail enthusiasm, specialist funds, liquidity cycles and the mechanical halving of its mining reward every 210,000 blocks.

That is beginning to change.
America is building the framework for a regulated digital financial system. The GENIUS Act creates federal rules for payment stablecoins. The SEC and CFTC are establishing clearer definitions and oversight for digital assets. Tokenised Treasuries, money-market funds, private credit, equities and other financial claims are moving onto blockchain rails.

The likely result is not the displacement of the dollar. It is the digitisation of dollar finance.
Stablecoins may become digital money, used for payments, settlement and collateral movement. Tokenised securities may become digital financial claims. Bitcoin can occupy a separate role, digital capital: scarce, liquid, portable and independent of any corporate or government issuer.

That is Michael Saylor’s central proposition. Bitcoin does not need to defeat stablecoins in payments. Stablecoins are better suited to daily transactions because they preserve dollar stability. Bitcoin’s opportunity is to become the reserve asset held beneath a growing system of digital money and digital credit.
This is where the supercycle argument becomes serious. A Bitcoin halving reduces new supply, but it does not create a supercycle. A supercycle needs a new marginal buyer.

China’s WTO accession created a new marginal buyer for commodities. Regulatory clarity, stablecoins, tokenised capital markets and institutional infrastructure could create one for Bitcoin: corporations, asset managers, insurers, pension funds, sovereign entities and global savings pools able to own, custody, finance and collateralise it at scale.
AI adds a further layer.

It is accelerating demand for data centres, power and machine-speed financial infrastructure. Bitcoin miners control power capacity, land, cooling and grid connections, assets increasingly valuable to the AI economy. More stable AI-related revenue could reduce forced Bitcoin sales by miners.

The key condition for a Bitcoin supercycle is not that Bitcoin itself changes. Its supply schedule, network and monetary rules remain the same. It is that the global financial system around Bitcoin changes, becoming more digital, tokenised, regulated and institutionally accessible.

The elements are now lining up: shrinking new supply, regulated digital dollars, tokenised markets, institutional access, AI infrastructure and Bitcoin-backed credit. None guarantees a straight line higher. But if these changes create a permanent new class of Bitcoin buyers, as China’s WTO entry created a vast new source of demand for commodities, Bitcoin could shift from a recurring halving trade to a genuine supercycle re-rating as the reserve capital of a digital financial system.

#Bitcoin $MSTR $STRC

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

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[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC Chair Mike Selig says the agency is preparing for the "era of onchain systems, mass tokenization, 24/7 trading, and agentic finance."

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

🧐

[TechFlow 深潮｜APP 已上线 @TechFlowPost]

比特币链上分析师 James Check @Checkmatey 从 2 月开始加大定投，到 8 月已经部署了 90% 的计划资金，但随着 BTC 接近 10 万美元，他准备收手了。

有意思的是，他做出这一系列判断，几乎没有依赖大家熟悉的“四年周期”。

在他看来，四年周期更像“一块坏掉的钟”，真正值得看的，是顶部买家什么时候亏到投降、长期持有者什么时候停止卖出，以及筹码最终流向了谁。

这期播客里，他还直接表示自己对山寨币“毫无兴趣”，持仓为零。

分享里面几个核心观点：

1. 6 万和 5.8 万美元没有本质区别，真正重要的是中间隔了六个月

2 月跌至 6 万美元是“价格痛”，6、7 月跌至 5.8 万美元则是“时间痛”。两轮投降式抛售完成后，大量高成本筹码已经转移到更高信念的持有者手中。

2. 利空砸不下去，本身就是底部信号

ETF 净流出 85 亿美元等利空集中出现，BTC 却横盘两个多月。James 将其视为典型的卖方枯竭。

3. 400 万枚 BTC 从浮亏转为浮盈，市场心理已经发生变化

约占供应量 20% 的 BTC 在本轮反弹中重新进入盈利状态。在 James 看来，这种规模的成本基础修复足以改变持有者行为，让下一次回调更容易迎来买盘。

4. 他已经完成 90% 的资金部署，10 万美元附近停止加仓

James 从 2 月开始重手 DCA，并不执着于精准抄到最低点。对他而言，6 万、6.2 万还是 5.9 万美元并不重要，关键是在“深度价值区”完成筹码积累。

5. 真正会让他改变判断的，是长期持有者反常抛售

如果“老钱”在明显低于历史高点的位置就开始大量派发，他才会重新审视当前的看多框架。目前他并没有看到这种行为。

6. 四年周期已经不是一个好指南针

市场不会因为日历走到某个月就自动见底。真正的循环是：

顶部买家被套 → 浮亏扩大 → 实亏抛售 → 横盘磨底 → 最终投降 → 筹码重新进入长期持有者手中。

所以 James 给出的那句话，可能才是整期播客最值得记住的：“寻找证据，而不是看日历。”

至于山寨币，他的态度更加极端：零持仓，也没兴趣。

即使代币化股票大规模上链，他也认为真正有价值的是特斯拉、英伟达这些资产，而不是承载它们的区块链“铁轨”。

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

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[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: 🇷🇺 Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin says:

"The circulation of cryptocurrencies has also become legal in the country starting from September 1. The relevant law was signed by the president." 👀

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

😎

[Crypto Tice @CryptoTice_]

EIGHT WEEKS AGO BITCOIN WAS IN MAXIMUM PANIC AT $63,000.

Today perfectly average costs $85,000.
That's a 29% rally just to get back to normal.

The Mayer Multiple Z-score went from -1.6σ all the way back to zero.

Think about what that means.
Maximum fear created a 29% discount on perfectly normal Bitcoin.

The people who bought panic…
Just got paid.

This is how Bitcoin works every single cycle.
Extreme fear creates extreme opportunity.
And extreme opportunity rewards the people with conviction.

The panic buyers at $63K aren't lucky.
They were paying attention.

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

🫡🫡🫡

[BlackRock @BlackRock]

Our latest research paper explores the growing connection between AI and digital assets and explains why broad AI adoption may drive new demand, utility and applications across the digital asset economy. https://t.co/z5T88Orble

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

好好好。

[Shibo @GodsBurnt]

Just got off the phone with a REAL Crypto OG who's been around since 2010.

He said the SuperCycle is real.

He said this feels much more like a slow and stretched out version of the second half of 2021 than a 2022-like bottoming in terms of sentiment.

If you weren't around back then here's what this means:

- bitcoin:native is going back to ATHs in the next 2-3 months.
- Alts are going to go completely PARABOLIC (10-100x current prices)
- Retail mania is going to start
- Everyone you know from CT is going to make 6 or 7 figures

It's about to get CRAZY around here.

Get ready.

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

😎😎😎

[Joe Burnett, MSBA @IIICapital]

Bitcoin is the new American dream.

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

😂

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

A week after the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, @Strike CEO @jackmallers told @jennsanasie the bill is irrelevant to Bitcoin:

“Does it impact Bitcoin's 21 million hard cap? No.”

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

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[Jeff Swanson @theswansjr]

To believe that Bitcoin has no intrinsic value means:

1. Believing that having a decentralized, global payment and settlement network outside the conventional financial system has no value.

2. Believing that having a way to protect your purchasing power from inflation has no value.

3. Believing that being able to store your wealth without counterparty risk has no value.

4. Believing that the ability to send $5 or $50 million anywhere, anytime, with minimal fees has no value.

Yet, people say bitcoin has no utility or value.

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

🫡🫡🫡

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: Legendary American financial advisor Ric Edelman compares buying Bitcoin today to buying Amazon in 1999:

"Back in 1999 people were arguing over whether to invest in Amazon. Nobody has that argument. Everybody owns it, and Bitcoin will have the same trajectory in the future."

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

😼

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

Something very unusual is happening in the crypto market right now.

Bitcoin just absorbed 5 major bearish headlines in a single week, and it's still green over the week.

1. The CLARITY Act failed in the Senate.
2. The Fed hiked rates.
3. The Bank of Japan hiked rates.
4. The dollar index crossed back above 100 for the first time in 7 weeks.
5. Oil is climbing too.

Despite all of that, Bitcoin is still trading above where this week started.

Something similar happened back in 2023.

The SEC labeled major altcoins as securities. The SEC sued exchanges. The Bitcoin ETF got delayed again. The Fed kept hiking rates.

Bitcoin still never made a new low during that entire stretch.

Usually when this exact pattern has shown up before, the market absorbing back to back bearish news without breaking down, it often means the bottom was in.

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

同意，50-100,50稳稳的。

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: $337 billion asset manager founder Ric Edelman predicts Bitcoin will go to $500,000 by 2030 🚀

"My prediction is actually kind of low compared to many others." 👀

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

好好好。

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨TWO MAJOR CRYPTO BILLS CLEAR HOUSE COMMITTEES

1. American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026
2. Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act

Both bills now advance toward a full House vote before moving to the Senate if approved.

Even with the CLARITY Act stalled, Congress is still moving forward on other major crypto legislation.

SEC and CFTC also moving ahead with crypto rules under existing law.

These bills could boost crypto adoption by giving investors clearer tax rules and strengthening Bitcoin's role as a US strategic reserve asset.

Key Provisions of American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026:

1. Creates an official US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

2. Government Bitcoin must generally be held for at least 20 years

3. Federal agencies must report their Bitcoin and crypto holdings

4. Treasury must publish regular reports and audits

5. Other crypto held by government could be sold to buy Bitcoin or reduce debt

6. Government would study ways to acquire more Bitcoin without raising taxes or borrowing.

7. Protects the right to buy, hold, transfer and self-custody Bitcoin.

US government holds around 328,000 Bitcoin, and this bill could keep that BTC locked up for years while allowing the government to acquire more.

Key provisions of the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act:

1. Tax relief for crypto fees under $10

2. New rules for mining and staking income

3. Clearer tax rules for stablecoins

4. Wash-sale rules extended to crypto

5. Crypto lending treated more like traditional securities lending

6. Changes to crypto broker reporting requirements.

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

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[U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission @SECGov]

🚨 TODAY: The SEC issued an order granting temporary, conditional exemptive relief to Tokenized Securities Venues from the definition of “exchange” in the Exchange Act to trade tokenized NMS stock using innovative permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools.

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

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[Altcoin Daily @AltcoinDaily]

JUST IN: 🚨 Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire suggests the CLARITY Act could still make a comeback:

"If you remember like the GENIUS Act, it failed cloture vote too... & then weeks later it passed."

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

好好好。🫡

[Royal Kane @RoyalKane_X]

Everyone is keeping a close eye on the CLARITY Act, and I am certain it will be approved.

However, the timing of its approval depends on liquidity, and it is likely to come as a surprise.

Since this is major news, Bitcoin will surge significantly once the Act is approved.

The approval will likely happen at the very moment when everyone is skeptical and shorting Bitcoin

[Crypto刘青松 @CryptoCrisp2021]

👍

[Eleanor Terrett @EleanorTerrett]

🚨NEW: A group of seven Senate Democrats, including @gillibrandny, @MarkWarner, @SenRubenGallego and @Sen_Alsobrooks, say they are “committed to working in a bipartisan fashion” to pass the Clarity Act.

The statement comes amid early efforts to restart bipartisan talks and gauge the appetite on both sides for returning to the table and getting the Clarity Act passed before the end of the year, according to three sources familiar with the discussions.

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%.

We are in an early bull market structure based on long term investor liquidity returning.