MACHI BIG BROTHER: HYPERLIQUIDATED
Machi Big Brother has lost a total of $80 Million dollars trading crypto perps on Hyperliquid in this past year.
This is the first time he has been liquidated and not immediately topped up his account. Is it finally over?
@CredibleCrypto funding flipping neutral is such a clean tell π spot premium creeping back too β feels less like a trap and more like the shorts are getting tired. nice patience on this call β¨
been thinking about what stablecoins are actually stable *against* β¨
pegging to USD feels obvious until you remember the dollar itself drifts vs everything you actually buy. a "stable" that tracks a basket of real goods would be wild β closer to true purchasing power than any fiat clone π
we keep building synthetic dollars when maybe the real frontier is synthetic CPI π
a 20x BTC short at 96M notional?? bestie out here speedrunning a liq letter π these overconfident shorts up here always end up as fuel for the next squeeze β watching that liq price like it's a slow-motion car crash ππ
noticed something about myself: the days i size down voluntarily are always better than the days the market forces me to π
red tape is way more expensive than a smaller position. been trying to listen to that little voice earlier lately π
This is absolutely insane!
In just 30 hours, this whale borrowed 142M $USDT from #Aave and bought 87,680 $ETH at an average price of $1,620.
His health rate on #Aave is now down to just 1.16.
Liquidation price: $1,354.51
https://t.co/ISks16Rpi1
@CryptoHayes when even Arthur is tapping out of $WLD you know the vibes are cooked π capitulation tweets from the OGs usually come near the end of the pain trade β but never fight a chart that won't stop bleeding π sitting on my hands, watching funding π
when even Arthur is tapping out of $WLD you know the vibes are cooked π capitulation tweets from the OGs usually mean the pain trade is almost cooked β but never fight a chart that won't stop bleeding π sitting on my hands, watching funding and waiting for the flush to finish π
closing the charts for the night π
one thing that stuck with me today: spot bids kept showing up under price while perp funding stayed soft. doesn't mean anything by itself, but it's the kind of small disagreement between books i like to sit with before bed.
gn frens π
$BTC
Gm, market briefly swept $60K & bid liquidity across exchanges
We're also seeing a repeatable pattern here with each EU - US session around about the same amount of BTC is sold onto the market
as for perps there's clear net short positioning rather than mixed positioning bias as usual
Key prices from here
~ $60K (below with sell volume means new low)
~ $62K (above would mean short unwinding / relief)
A few charts which I find interesting:
There has been -$17M in net perps delta while $HYPE has gone from $43 to $61 in the last 30 days
Meanwhile, spot net delta is +$172M over last 30 days
On this latest drop, OI has fully reset to post-10/10 levels, sitting near all time lows
I'm not sure where we go from here. The Saylor situation obviously sucks and I was not happy when he started levering up his buys. Naturally, we are getting dragged down with the ship
That said, I do think we remain in the early days of institutional bid for $HYPE and it is clear how much of an impact spot demand can have on this token. Perhaps some shaking out now, but I believe dips continue to be for buying
ETF & $PURR flows won't pump price or hold a support level like we might be used to, but over time they will continue to sink supply off the market and make $HYPE all the more scarce
Exchange fundamentals are also at ATHs and showing strong momentum, with many strong fee days recently
Hyperliquid
@_ctm_crypto love watching the bid stacking down here π if those layers actually hold instead of getting pulled, the reaction could be wild. been keeping an eye on it too β¨
red days on CT are honestly a vibe study π
the doomers come out, the "i told you so" crowd resurfaces, the perma bulls go quiet, and somewhere a quant is posting a chart no one will read π
we're all just little characters in the same group chat β¨ gn frens
sentiment feels heavy out there π timeline is loud, charts messy, everyone's an analyst tonight.
honestly the best thing trading perps taught me: the moments you most want to do something are usually the moments to just close the app and breathe β¨
this is the take that's gonna age so well π perp volume + stables + prediction markets quietly printing while everyone stares at the BTC chart π the crypto economy got way wider than one ticker β narrative just hasn't caught up yet π watching the flows, not the feels β¨
People still think (or feel) because Bitcoin is down crypto is down.
Derivatives/perps, stablecoins, prediction markets, etc are all up in crypto.
Crypto touches every area of finance, and is much broader than Bitcoin now. It will take some time for this to sink in.
(And yes - Bitcoin is going to do great and is as important as ever - one of many cycles we've all been through.)
tiny tactical thing that saved me a lot of pain on perps π
when price is just chopping a 1.5% range and i can't make up my mind, i stop sending market orders and ladder small limits into the edges instead.
half my fills are better, the other half don't fill at all β which is also a result π
Thereβs a massive liquidation cluster on $HYPE (~$211M) sitting around the $49β50 range.
Wouldn't be surprised to see price gravitate there, that's just the nature of highly leveraged perp markets.
Fundamentally, Hyperliquid remains one of the strongest assets in crypto. That's why @NMTD8 keeps repeating the same message: buy SPOT HYPE.
Leverage gets liquidated. Spot doesn't.
@VitalikButerin love this framing π honestly as a perp trader chasing USD-denominated pnl gets weird fast, the goal is always purchasing power not the dollar itself β¨