JDB_Crypto

I love Taco Bell™ Algorand and @BaldJohnGreen. He’s big, he’s fast, he’s got a nice mustache.

over 2 years ago

I just did my crypto taxes with @CoinTracker so I won't go to jail (at least not for inaccurate crypto taxes). Try it for yourself: https://t.co/3rMRLmeSqp

CryptoJdb retweeted

Balaji

@balajis

over 2 years ago

The internet vs the government Social media vs legacy media Innovation vs regulation Uber vs taxi medallions Technology vs politics Bitcoin vs the dollar SpaceX vs FAA OpenAI vs NYT Crypto vs SEC Cloud vs land Bits vs atoms It’s all Network vs State.

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Nayib Bukele

@nayibbukele

over 2 years ago

El Salvador's #Bitcoin investments are in the black! After literally thousands of articles and hit pieces that ridiculed our supposed losses, all of which were calculated based on #Bitcoin’s market price at the time... With the current #Bitcoin market price, if we were to sell our #Bitcoin, we would not only recover 100% of our investment but also make a profit of $3 620 277.13 USD (as of this moment). Of course, we have no intention of selling; that has never been our objective. We are fully aware that the price will continue to fluctuate in the future, this doesn’t affect our long-term strategy. Nonetheless, it is important that the naysayers and the authors of those hit pieces take back their statements. The responsible thing to do would be for them to issue retractions, offer apologies, or, at the very least, acknowledge that El Salvador is now yielding a profit, just as they repeatedly reported that we were incurring losses. If they consider themselves true journalists, they should report this new reality with the same intensity they reported the previous one. We’ll see… Stay tuned!

nayibbukele's tweet photo. El Salvador's #Bitcoin investments are in the black!

After literally thousands of articles and hit pieces that ridiculed our supposed losses, all of which were calculated based on #Bitcoin’s market price at the time...

With the current #Bitcoin market price, if we were to sell our #Bitcoin, we would not only recover 100% of our investment but also make a profit of $3 620 277.13 USD (as of this moment).

Of course, we have no intention of selling; that has never been our objective. We are fully aware that the price will continue to fluctuate in the future, this doesn’t affect our long-term strategy.

Nonetheless, it is important that the naysayers and the authors of those hit pieces take back their statements. The responsible thing to do would be for them to issue retractions, offer apologies, or, at the very least, acknowledge that El Salvador is now yielding a profit, just as they repeatedly reported that we were incurring losses.

If they consider themselves true journalists, they should report this new reality with the same intensity they reported the previous one.

We’ll see… Stay tuned!

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Who to follow

Caphits.freak

@caphits

Martin

@martinflo_

Studying AI, loves sports science, cycling and running. Occasional DJ

CryptoJdb retweeted

Chamath Palihapitiya

@chamath

over 2 years ago

Magnificent Seven (M7) or Bust? While the M7 has been trouncing all other stocks this year (see chart 1), it is also true that it’s multiples are approaching some very heady territory (see chart 2). The problem is what do you do if you want exposure to the M7 but not through a traditional market cap weighted index which counts M7 for almost 30% - creating a very undiversified index. A potential solution is to look at the Nasdaq100 equal weighted index - which means each company counts equally vs a percentage based on their market cap. It looks like the Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight does better than the S&P500 Index. It essentially gives you exposure to M7 without it having to be almost 30% of the index. So it mimics the return without the concentration. The problem with the N100 is that there are a bunch of companies in there that are now losing money and others, still, that need to refinance debt soon which will be hard/expensive when Fed Funds are >5%. Nothing is perfect which explains why so much money continues to pile up on the sidelines (chart 4). Onwards! (All charts via Bloomberg)

chamath's tweet photo. Magnificent Seven (M7) or Bust?

While the M7 has been trouncing all other stocks this year (see chart 1), it is also true that it’s multiples are approaching some very heady territory (see chart 2).

The problem is what do you do if you want exposure to the M7 but not through a traditional market cap weighted index which counts M7 for almost 30% - creating a very undiversified index.

A potential solution is to look at the Nasdaq100 equal weighted index - which means each company counts equally vs a percentage based on their market cap. It looks like the Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight does better than the S&P500 Index. It essentially gives you exposure to M7 without it having to be almost 30% of the index.

So it mimics the return without the concentration. The problem with the N100 is that there are a bunch of companies in there that are now losing money and others, still, that need to refinance debt soon which will be hard/expensive when Fed Funds are >5%.

Nothing is perfect which explains why so much money continues to pile up on the sidelines (chart 4).

Onwards!

(All charts via Bloomberg)

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over 2 years ago

@chamath Is it b/c we got Putin?

CryptoJdb retweeted

Jack Farley

@JackFarley96

almost 3 years ago

Losses mount on some regional banks' derivative books Interest rate hedges (receive fixed // pay floating swaps) on variable rate loans have steep losses as rates have risen A few examples from today... 1/8 🧵

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CryptoJdb retweeted

almost 3 years ago

You wouldn't expect it based on Twitter sentiment, but Bitcoin has quietly been the best-performing asset class of 2023 so far.

WClemente's tweet photo. You wouldn't expect it based on Twitter sentiment, but Bitcoin has quietly been the best-performing asset class of 2023 so far. https://t.co/7GyaVqLW3H

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CryptoJdb retweeted

Krown

@KrownCryptoCave

almost 3 years ago

Bitcoin - needs recovery before daily close or next move down

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CryptoJdb retweeted

almost 3 years ago

Despite being down nearly 70% from its 2021 highs, there is still a high likelihood that Bitcoin succeeds. With the market going sideways, Bitcoin volatility near all time lows, and me losing my mind, decided to compile a few thoughts on why: It is widely known that Bitcoin was created out of the 2008 financial crisis, with the foresight of Satoshi that the moral hazard and incentives set in place during that time period of central bank intervention would cause an alteration in the fabric of financial perception due to continued monetary expansion. In the 15 years since, federal debt as a percentage of GDP (The US economy's output) has risen from 60% to 120% today. There are two ways to resolve this from first principles: Either we must increase the growth of the economy at a greater pace than debt creation or lower the amount of debt created relative to the growth of the economy. While the economy surprised estimates and grew by 2.4% (annualized) in the second quarter, during that time period public debt grew by 2.7%, which comes out to 10.8% annualized. To keep pace with decades of debt creation, the US would need nothing short of an AI-fueled utopian miracle. On the other hand, political incentives to be liked and re-elected leave a low probability that elected leaders will prioritize greatly cutting spending. At the same time baby boomers are coming into retiring age. The social security programs that they rely on must be supported by the new working class, which is smaller and in a tougher environment for relative wealth creation than baby boomers. These factors combined leaves us with a high probability of debt relative to GDP increasing. So with debt growing relative to the output of our economy, how will be service the debt? The answer is quite convenient when you have the global reserve currency like the US does, which is through monetary debasement. To keep things simple, if the United States issues debt at a 5% annual interest rate, they can simply increase the amount of monetary units (5% in this case) that they are paying the interest in accordingly. This means that they are paying back their debt in nominal terms (raw dollar value), but not in real terms (adjusted for debasement), and it’s the countries that we issue debt to that get screwed in the process. However, from the US’ perspective, why would you not just continue debasing the debt away? At this point we have continued to do so for so long that the amount of debt we’ve accumulated relative to GDP leaves only one realistic option to avoid defaulting, which is monetary debasement. Many would consider the structure what the US is doing to be a ponzi scheme, as they issue debt that’s paid down by issuing more monetary units and newly issued debt. So, what assets should benefit from this over the long term? This largely boils down to growth and scarcity. Stocks are a decent option, which is obvious by just looking at a chart of equities over the last 15 years. Interestingly, relative to M2 money supply the S&P 500 has barely made new highs. Real estate seems like a decent option as well, but isn’t highly liquid. Venture/angel investing is an option, but will be highly difficult to properly execute on by an every day citizen that hasn't gone through Y-Combinator. Commodities seem like a decent long term bet, but ultimately the choosing of which largely can boil down to scarcity, utility, and monetary properties. While gold has traditionally been widely viewed as the go-to commodity to own during periods of debasement, after the next Bitcoin halving, the digital asset will have a higher stock to flow ratio than both gold and silver; while also being more transportable, divisible, verifiable, and provably scarce than all other commodities on the planet. While the recent rate hiking campaign (that is increasing federal debt as treasury yields rise) to combat the rise of CPI in late 2021-early 2022 has put a damper on most assets, this does not alter the long-term trend of the monetary/debt situation in the US, which with enough time will lead to money printing. This is not to mention the increasing likelihood of something “breaking” the higher and longer that the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, that will ultimately be met with intervention – the timing of which has been wrongly speculated on for over a year by commentators (including myself), so refer to your favorite macro pundit. I recently read through a report from the United Nations which included a couple very interesting charts regarding trends on global sentiment and perception around living standards; some of which I think also point towards pre-conditioning that is favorable for Bitcoin to reach mass adoption. For one, negative news about the world has surged to new highs (chart below), which could partially be attributed to the polarization of these headlines and incentive for journalists to write negative news for click based advertising dollars -- but I think the larger driver is a decreasing outlook for people to be able to live a better life than they do today. Meanwhile, the UN's global human development index has declined for two years in a row (report was published in 2022 so slightly outdated) and has erased the gains of the previous 5 years. All the while, political polarization is on the rise throughout the world (shown by the chart below). Combine these factors and what do you get? According to Pew Research, public trust in government is near the lowest that its ever been, down from 79% when the study originally began in 1960 to just 16% today. Why is this happening? While the answer to this is likely greatly nuanced and I don’t mean to overgeneralize – I think there’s a high probability that these trends are largely fueled by monetary debasement. Why? Continued expansion of money supply inflates the value of those who own assets, while making them harder for those who don’t own them, to obtain. Here’s a breakdown of assets by wealth group as of Q1 2023 in the United States: (shown in chart below) As a large portion of Americans continue to feel more left behind and dissatisfied, they will likely seek to rebel against the current system, or seek alternatives, which is a dynamic that macro historians/commentators such as Ray Dalio have discussed at length. I believe these dynamics will create the preconditioning for a willingness to adopt an alternative monetary system; and with the existence of an escape valve via Bitcoin today, my money is on the first successful iteration of digital scarcity becoming adopted by society. Not to mention a similar dynamic takes place on the nation state level with the US itself benefitting from the dollar system and others not. Meanwhile, combined with the structural trends of debt/demographics and obvious trend of the world becoming increasingly digital, the setup for Bitcoin is becoming increasingly favorable. All to say, over a decade plus time time horizon, orange coin good. Sources: https://t.co/C5jtPUZRqX, https://t.co/MPVCEeAVs3, https://t.co/uRD4euOR4w

WClemente's tweet photo. Despite being down nearly 70% from its 2021 highs, there is still a high likelihood that Bitcoin succeeds.

With the market going sideways, Bitcoin volatility near all time lows, and me losing my mind, decided to compile a few thoughts on why:

It is widely known that Bitcoin was created out of the 2008 financial crisis, with the foresight of Satoshi that the moral hazard and incentives set in place during that time period of central bank intervention would cause an alteration in the fabric of financial perception due to continued monetary expansion. In the 15 years since, federal debt as a percentage of GDP (The US economy's output) has risen from 60% to 120% today.

There are two ways to resolve this from first principles: Either we must increase the growth of the economy at a greater pace than debt creation or lower the amount of debt created relative to the growth of the economy. While the economy surprised estimates and grew by 2.4% (annualized) in the second quarter, during that time period public debt grew by 2.7%, which comes out to 10.8% annualized. To keep pace with decades of debt creation, the US would need nothing short of an AI-fueled utopian miracle. On the other hand, political incentives to be liked and re-elected leave a low probability that elected leaders will prioritize greatly cutting spending.

At the same time baby boomers are coming into retiring age. The social security programs that they rely on must be supported by the new working class, which is smaller and in a tougher environment for relative wealth creation than baby boomers.

These factors combined leaves us with a high probability of debt relative to GDP increasing.

So with debt growing relative to the output of our economy, how will be service the debt? The answer is quite convenient when you have the global reserve currency like the US does, which is through monetary debasement. To keep things simple, if the United States issues debt at a 5% annual interest rate, they can simply increase the amount of monetary units (5% in this case) that they are paying the interest in accordingly. This means that they are paying back their debt in nominal terms (raw dollar value), but not in real terms (adjusted for debasement), and it’s the countries that we issue debt to that get screwed in the process. However, from the US’ perspective, why would you not just continue debasing the debt away? At this point we have continued to do so for so long that the amount of debt we’ve accumulated relative to GDP leaves only one realistic option to avoid defaulting, which is monetary debasement. Many would consider the structure what the US is doing to be a ponzi scheme, as they issue debt that’s paid down by issuing more monetary units and newly issued debt.

So, what assets should benefit from this over the long term? This largely boils down to growth and scarcity. Stocks are a decent option, which is obvious by just looking at a chart of equities over the last 15 years. Interestingly, relative to M2 money supply the S&P 500 has barely made new highs.

Real estate seems like a decent option as well, but isn’t highly liquid. Venture/angel investing is an option, but will be highly difficult to properly execute on by an every day citizen that hasn't gone through Y-Combinator. Commodities seem like a decent long term bet, but ultimately the choosing of which largely can boil down to scarcity, utility, and monetary properties. While gold has traditionally been widely viewed as the go-to commodity to own during periods of debasement, after the next Bitcoin halving, the digital asset will have a higher stock to flow ratio than both gold and silver; while also being more transportable, divisible, verifiable, and provably scarce than all other commodities on the planet. While the recent rate hiking campaign (that is increasing federal debt as treasury yields rise) to combat the rise of CPI in late 2021-early 2022 has put a damper on most assets, this does not alter the long-term trend of the monetary/debt situation in the US, which with enough time will lead to money printing. This is not to mention the increasing likelihood of something “breaking” the higher and longer that the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, that will ultimately be met with intervention – the timing of which has been wrongly speculated on for over a year by commentators (including myself), so refer to your favorite macro pundit.

I recently read through a report from the United Nations which included a couple very interesting charts regarding trends on global sentiment and perception around living standards; some of which I think also point towards pre-conditioning that is favorable for Bitcoin to reach mass adoption. For one, negative news about the world has surged to new highs (chart below), which could partially be attributed to the polarization of these headlines and incentive for journalists to write negative news for click based advertising dollars -- but I think the larger driver is a decreasing outlook for people to be able to live a better life than they do today.

Meanwhile, the UN's global human development index has declined for two years in a row (report was published in 2022 so slightly outdated) and has erased the gains of the previous 5 years. All the while, political polarization is on the rise throughout the world (shown by the chart below).

Combine these factors and what do you get? According to Pew Research, public trust in government is near the lowest that its ever been, down from 79% when the study originally began in 1960 to just 16% today.

Why is this happening? While the answer to this is likely greatly nuanced and I don’t mean to overgeneralize – I think there’s a high probability that these trends are largely fueled by monetary debasement. Why? Continued expansion of money supply inflates the value of those who own assets, while making them harder for those who don’t own them, to obtain. Here’s a breakdown of assets by wealth group as of Q1 2023 in the United States: (shown in chart below)

As a large portion of Americans continue to feel more left behind and dissatisfied, they will likely seek to rebel against the current system, or seek alternatives, which is a dynamic that macro historians/commentators such as Ray Dalio have discussed at length. I believe these dynamics will create the preconditioning for a willingness to adopt an alternative monetary system; and with the existence of an escape valve via Bitcoin today, my money is on the first successful iteration of digital scarcity becoming adopted by society. Not to mention a similar dynamic takes place on the nation state level with the US itself benefitting from the dollar system and others not. Meanwhile, combined with the structural trends of debt/demographics and obvious trend of the world becoming increasingly digital, the setup for Bitcoin is becoming increasingly favorable.

All to say, over a decade plus time time horizon, orange coin good.

Sources: https://t.co/C5jtPUZRqX, https://t.co/MPVCEeAVs3, https://t.co/uRD4euOR4w

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CryptoJdb retweeted

Lyn Alden

@LynAldenContact

almost 3 years ago

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CryptoJdb retweeted

Bitcoin News

@BitcoinNewsCom

almost 3 years ago

BREAKING: X, formerly Twitter, is now licensed to store, transfer, and exchange #Bitcoin and digital assets for its users‼️

BitcoinNewsCom's tweet photo. BREAKING: X, formerly Twitter, is now licensed to store, transfer, and exchange #Bitcoin and digital assets for its users‼️ https://t.co/pcz632eS9A

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CryptoJdb retweeted

almost 3 years ago

The average age of start-up founders is about 40 Don’t let the internet fool you, if you haven’t created a unicorn by the time you’re 25 you’re not doomed

WClemente's tweet photo. The average age of start-up founders is about 40

Don’t let the internet fool you, if you haven’t created a unicorn by the time you’re 25 you’re not doomed https://t.co/ojgdm0SrPa

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CryptoJdb retweeted

almost 3 years ago

Credit card debt over $1 trillion for the first time ever This is fine

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CryptoJdb retweeted

Lyn Alden

@LynAldenContact

almost 3 years ago

My August 2023 public newsletter is now available. It focuses on some of the economic and investment implications of AI. https://t.co/UjgvJYxVG3

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CryptoJdb retweeted

BITCOINLFG®

@bitcoinlfgo

almost 3 years ago

NEW 🚨🚨🚨 The mystery #Bitcoin wallet that amassed over $3 billion worth of cryptocurrency in the past three months has been revealed to be owned by Robinhood Markets Inc.

bitcoinlfgo's tweet photo. NEW 🚨🚨🚨

The mystery #Bitcoin wallet that amassed over $3 billion worth of cryptocurrency in the past three months has been revealed to be owned by Robinhood Markets Inc. https://t.co/mTa9wwmhe5

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CryptoJdb retweeted

Watcher.Guru

@WatcherGuru

almost 3 years ago

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and UAE to join BRICS on January 1st, 2024.

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CryptoJdb retweeted

Chamath Palihapitiya

@chamath

almost 3 years ago

$NVDA wow. What are the odds that all of this cap ex spending DOESNT yield a massive breakthrough in some sector of the economy? Gotta think pretty low…so the big question is whether this breakthrough lies within BigTech or it’s a startup…

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almost 3 years ago

@LynAldenContact Are you doing your own voice acting? Looking forward to the book!