Gemhunter

[Daniel Cheung @HighCoinviction]

Good chance this bull cycle ends up being the largest in terms of market cap creation and longer in duration than expected:

1) First time the crypto bull market has aligned with the start of a Fed easing cycle

2) Market remains in a "buy the dip" mentality absent a severe macro shock

3) $BTC + $ETH ETF provides sustained bid into the asset class and starting to see many large TradFi investment firms looking beyond the majors

4) Increased institutional buy-in from both large consumer enterprises (i.e. Visa, Shopify etc...), which has the ability to drive S curve growth for many protocols

5) Abundance of narratives and subsectors emerging within crypto (i.e. DePIN, Crypto x AI, RWAs etc...) to help drive sustained pockets of wealth creation amongst investors in the asset class

6) Regulatory likely remains constructive from here given Blackrock's entrance + many bad actors wiped from prior cycle

Feeling optimistic for the next 12 to 24 months.

[Andrew Kang @Rewkang]

Long term $BTC demand flows this year I approximate to be $40-130B+

One of the most common cardinal sins of crypto investors/traders is underappreciating the amount of wealth/income/liquidity in the world and its spillover into crypto. We hear stats about the market cap of gold, stocks, real estate so often that it likely turns into noise for many. Many in crypto get stuck in their own little crypto bubble, but the more you travel and meet other business owners, HNWI, etc, the more you realize how incomprehensibly massive the amount of $ there is in this world and how much of that can come into $BTC/crypto. Let me put this into perspective with a rough demand sizing exercise.

The avg US Household income is 105k. There are 124m US households in the US which means the aggregate annual income in the US across individuals is $13 TRILLION. US is 25% of GDP, so Global aggregate income is ~$52T.

Global crypto ownership on average is 10%. In the US its ~15% and as high as 25-30% in the UAE. Assuming crypto owners allocate only 1% of their income annually, that works out to $52B buying for BTC annually and $150M daily. Realistically, this buying isn't linear and has a lot of daily variation depending on seasonality variables. Keep in mind, this is an estimate for non-ETF/pre-ETF flows. People seem to forget that there has been massive consistent demand for Bitcoin even before these ETFs were approved. How do you think Bitcoin got to become a trillion dollar asset and has consistently trended higher over the last 10 years?

These estimates are quite conservative for a few reasons. (1) you probably see more than a 1% allocation. True believers are putting 50%+ in. Average allocation maybe actually 3-5% on average? (2) Allocations from businesses, macro funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc are not included here and probably on a similar order of magnitude.

What about Mt Gox? Celsius? USG Selling? Miner Emissions? This has been the bear argument for many but the reality is when you size up the buy flows - they dwarf all of these sell flows put together. Table below shows this selling to amount to ~$17b. And the non mining emissions are also not recurring/cleared after this year. Traders/Investors in this space always overemphasize what they can see. Open your eyes and understand the size of the flows that aren't publicly stated.

Now add on top of this the ETF inflows. Just the lower bound of estimates covers the sell flows itself. But recently we've been seeing many days above the upper bound. Wouldn't be surprised to see us run at $100-200m+ daily over the next month. Really, what is the bear argument here?

Major respect to guys like @cburniske but I still believe this ETF launch is not comparable to previous events like CME futures, Coinbase IPO, etc and we don't spend anytime below 40ks. 50-60ks in Febuary and ATH by March.

[Cozomo de’ Medici @CozomoMedici]

Did I imagine my very 1st purchase of a "useless" jpeg would cost $2m USD?

Absolutely not. It should have been $4m.

Frens, today I share the uncensored tale of how I entered the wild world of NFTs. From 0 to 8 figures in 30 days.

Grab a glass, take a seat, & hold on tight.🍷👇