CryptoStannis

25 | Former TOP #3 WOOX leaderboard | Tweets are a stream of my consciousness. Join me and let’s make it together 🤝🏼.
$PENGU maxi

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

I’m long, no cash. Betting this is bottom. See you in 2024 🫡

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

@shesbonky @SamaHoole Only because death at birth was higher….

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

@davidonchainx Not quite. Claude's new computer use ($20/mo) does overlap with OpenClaw, but it's macOS only — so the Mac Mini buyers are actually the winners here.

Plus OpenClaw has 50+ integrations and runs locally. Claude's version is still early and more limited. Different tools for now.

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

→ Has 2.5M subscribers ready to buy
→ CEO confirmed peptide product line on Feb earnings call

Prototypes are easy. Production and distribution at scale is the moat.

Hims already solved the hard part.

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

Everyone's watching Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly for the peptide boom.

But the real play might be $HIMS.

While Big Pharma spends billions on 10-year FDA trials, Hims quietly:

→ Acquired a peptide manufacturing facility
→ Owns 503A + 503B compounding pharmacies

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

@SweetcheeksReal No it’s not

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

@Anubhavhing Cloudflare’s /crawl endpoint simplifies fetching and proxy rotation, but it isn't an industry killer. Getting HTML is the easy part. Real complexity lies in anti-bot bypass, custom schemas, and data analysis. Good tool, bad take.

[Tim Denning @Tim_Denning]

https://t.co/fnire2eOJr

[mc lumps ⏹️❗️ 🔨⏱️ @lumpenspace]

you guys may shit on self-help books as much as you want but this bad boy changed my life

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

@DegenPing Ping lied people died

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

@DegenPing lied people died

[Ping @DegenPing]

*Warning* (VERY STRONG), Retweet this to let the Universe send you money, Huge Amounts of money very quickly.

888.

[Chicken Genius @pakpakchicken]

Here’s some alpha. Do the work. Make money the smart way.

Dividend Yield? LMAO
Stablecoin Yield? LMAO
Rental Yield? LMAO
Options Yield? Ok not sooo bad if you use it properly.
REITS? LMAO
Bond Yield? LMAO
On-chain looping Yield? LMAO
Crypto Yield? LMAO

Spot Perpetual Arbitrage -
Beginner Mode - 10 - 20% APR
Expert Mode - 50-100% APR

If you cannot identify where the yield comes from. You are the yield.

Dividends are distributed when companies are at the tail end of growth stage.
Dividend investors face capital risks with low returns. Mathematically retarded.

Stablecoin yield needs to be more than inflation to breakeven + smart contract risk + CBDC controls

Options yield pretty good. Real yield. However capital risk to options yield requires above normie knowledge.

REITS. Long term, you are fked. There’s no “but”

Bonds - Issuer Risk. Capital intensive, Low Rewards and often lower than inflation.

On-chain Yield. Smart contract Risk, Liquidity risk. Spread Risk. Constant monitoring and moving capital to the next best.

Spot Perpetual Arbitrage
Risk: Platform Risk. That’s all.

[DeFi^2 @DefiSquared]

So the SEC update to accelerate the timeline of ETF approvals creates one of the wildest narrative overlaps I've seen in a long time on AVAX specifically. Like nearly black-swan level convergence of ETF approval + close to $1 billion DAT bid coming at almost the same time.

The latest expected numbers I'm hearing right now are $800mm in up to 80% cash bid from the Dragonfly AVAX DAT, and an additional $300mm in over 50% cash bid from the Hivemind DAT (which literally closes tomorrow). Contrary to initial reports, a majority of this is reported to be open market bids, with only a portion purchased from the foundation (which may still be used to later buy spot the same way Ethena did as well). To put this in perspective, $800mm of buying pressure at current market cap / daily volume would be the functional equivalent of nearly $10B of SOL DAT buying, now while simultaneously expecting one of the first ETF approvals since Ethereum to come imminently.

I went through the full list of coins with CFTC regulated futures, and as far as I can tell, AVAX is the only included coin that isn't extremely high market cap but still has the ability to successfully raise DATs & hasn't yet spent their DAT raise.

So far it's become apparent that no amount of front-running has been enough to offset the actual impact of any of the DAT buys, with the effect literally doubling the price of Worldcoin and Eth, and Sol still moving straight up despite being known well in advance. I expect this to ultimately be the case here as well, and even just on technicals alone this looks like a clean run to $40+.

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

I’ve been seeing a lot of chatter on X about “peak cycle” and how the economy looks late-cycle. So I wanted to tackle this head on and share a few thoughts of my own...

This is from the August 21st MIT publication:

A classic late-cycle economy typically has all the following ingredients:

✅ Manufacturing sentiment is extreme (think ISM ~60)
✅ Services sentiment is extreme
✅ Homebuilder sentiment is extreme
✅ Consumer confidence is high
✅ Worker confidence is high (JOLTS quits rate rising sharply)
✅ Investor sentiment is very bullish
✅ Small business confidence is high
✅ Job openings and hiring plans are rising
✅ Wage data and surveys show accelerating pay increases
✅ CEO confidence is strong and capex is booming

Now, I could add more to this, but when you score all of these inputs and turn them into a single timeseries, here’s what you get (chart 1).

Using data from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, The Conference Board, etc., US sentiment, when viewed as a complete picture, remains very subdued. We’re just not even close to the euphoric levels we see late in the business cycle, when everything listed above is stretched to extremes.

Peak cycle is when the ISM rolls over from 60+ to sub-50, inventories unwind, and demand cools. Supply and demand reset, inflation pressures ease, and the cycle eventually recovers out of the slowdown or recession – mostly depending on the extent to which financial conditions tightened during the cycle, particularly late on as central banks hike rates and drain liquidity.

However, based on this full set of indicators, the data is pointing to something very different. This does not look like an above-trend late-cycle economy. It looks much more like an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum.

Another really important factor, and a key reason we believe both the ISM and this sentiment composite will grind higher this year and into 2026, is the sheer scale of central bank easing via rate cuts.

Right now, nearly 90% of central banks are cutting rates. That is extraordinary, and on a forward-looking basis, it is a massive tailwind for the business cycle (chart 2).

By my playbook, the time to start talking late-cycle is when the teal line rolls over and begins to drop, as central banks turn to hiking rates to slow growth. Even then, there’s usually a nine-month lag before higher rates hit the real economy.

Right now, we’re just nowhere near that... in fact, the opposite is true.

To my earlier point, slowdown or recession is largely a function of how much financial conditions tighten late in the cycle. Oil prices are a big part of this equation. When oil runs 50% above trend, that represents a massive tightening and has almost always signaled recession, looking back to the early 1970s.

However, right now, we are nearly 20% below trend and still falling, which shows this component of financial conditions is still easing (chart 3).

Also, as I’ve pointed out many times in previous reports, when you look at Temporary Help Services, it has early-cycle vibes written all over it (chart 4).

Rising growth from deeply negative levels is an early-cycle dynamic. It tells you the economy is in recovery mode, not rolling over.

Late-cycle is the opposite: positive year-on-year growth that’s slowing, which reflects an overheated economy losing steam.

Why is unemployment still rising?

Because it lags the cycle. Jobs data is a six-month look in the rear-view mirror.

Here’s the thing: full-time hires are expensive. Benefits, pensions, overhead…

So what do businesses do first?

They typically increase overtime hours and bring in temp workers. Only when they feel confident do they finally lock in full-time staff. That way, they can scale without locking themselves into long-term payroll commitments.

So, this isn’t late-cycle. It’s early-cycle (growth up + inflation down = Macro Spring), soon transitioning to mid-cycle (growth up + inflation up = Macro Summer).

That’s how I see it, anyway...

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

Higher

[Puffy @slipsliderr]

market continues to saturate at ever lower volumes

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

@riviera_viking @_WOO_X Yes

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

@_WOO_X
My withdrawal is stuck for more than 16 hours

[CryptoStannis @CryptoStannis]

@thedefivillain Cheap