Luke

Working hard or hardly working…🍻🍁🍄🫠

[Luke @Cryptwalk11]

@EliAfriatISR Fuck off muslim extremist cunts go kill each other in your own cuntry

[Luke @Cryptwalk11]

Laneway Dining Specials https://t.co/cxVhwW73Vv Yes

[Luke @Cryptwalk11]

I'm listening to @kiis1065 on @TuneIn. #NowPlaying https://t.co/uzD5x8XjEq

[🇦🇺 JustWazza 🇦🇺 @JustWazzaXRP]

I encourage everyone in every military globally to put down your guns and say that's it. We quit. You (gov) want to war, fight it your fucking selves. They are using your life for their own agenda.

[Luke @Cryptwalk11]

@elonmusk 🤣🤣

[Herb @Herbworthy]

I'm always late.🤭

[Luke @Cryptwalk11]

@crypto_bitlord7 How good is this 👌🏼🍻

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

The chart below perfectly demonstrates all the reasons why I think most are going to be completely caught off guard over the next 6 months and into '24 and '25.

Whether you believe in a new ATH on #Bitcoin this year or not, this is an idea worth considering imo.

Let's dive in...

I have spoken for a while about my issues with the almost universally accepted idea of a 4 year, "halving" based cycle many times.

Rather, I've proposed the idea of a cycle that lengthens in time from peak to peak while also simultaneously decreasing in ROI from trough to peak.

This idea was originally presented in 2019 and a refined time horizon was presented in 2020, about 3 years ago, when $BTC was trading under 10k. That idea was shared here: https://t.co/OwQPODqAWw

In the chart shared in the link above, it is clear is that moves from trough to peak were taking longer in time to complete and yielding a lower ROI from start to finish.

This is a very logical/expect conclusion as we know that volatility in any market naturally decreases over time as an asset matures and the earliest participants in any market always have the potential for the highest yield/ROI.

Based on the chart shared above in 2020, one of the conclusions that was made from it was that this next cycle would not end until "sometime after [the start of] 2023".

Fast forward to Q4 of 2021- we had broken prior all time highs as expected and were trading in the 50-60k range. At this stage, most were calling for a blow-off top into December 2021 and 100k+ $BTC in the next month or two.

Why? Well because of the "halving" of course.

You see, our last parabolic run/blow off top occurred exactly 4 years prior- in December of 2017 on our run to 20k. So based on the halving cycle theory, our next blow off top should have come 4 years later- in December of 2021. I was one of the very few at this time that was NOT expecting this- again based on my idea of a lengthening cycle- I believed that this next blow off top should occur in/after 2023.

So, in December of 2021, when we were trading at 60k+ and the masses were screaming for a blow-off top to 100k+, I published a Youtube video to explain why I expected us to find a local top soon and a correction to at least 30-40k before the *actual* blow off top wave occurred 6+ months later. A full, in-depth breakdown as to how/why I made these claims at the time can be found here if you want to understand the logic further (I recommend finishing this thread and then going back to watch the vid below if interested): https://t.co/fa3McENAaB

What followed was a major crash that hit my target of 30-40k and ended up going even lower due to a series of industry defining black swan events that created a domino effect of bankruptcies, collapses, panic selling and capitulation- 3AC/LUNA, Voyager, Celcius, FTX etc.

At this stage, while we had gone lower than my target of 30-40k, we had not yet hit the invalidation point for this cycle and so while the depth of this major correction was deeper than expected, the high timeframe thesis remained in-tact (logic behind this is also covered in the Youtube video linked two paragraphs ago).

This is where a major divergence occurs between my ideas and the currently accepted/agreed upon narrative- as the vast majority who witnessed this crash now assumed that our cycle HAD topped at 69k and we are now in the depths of a major bear market with no new all time highs to be expected until after the NEXT halving in 2024.

Meanwhile, I have maintained, in-line with my ideas shared in 2019, that our cycle that started in 2018 has not yet completed and that we are still missing a final "5th wave" to the upside which has now officially begun off of our lows at 15k. This final move to new highs above 69k would mark the end of a 5 year cycle, the longest cycle we have seen since Bitcoin's inception and in-line with the idea of lengthening cycles that I've proposed earlier.

"But Credible, why would this time be different? We always see new highs only AFTER a halving event. So we will only see new highs after the next halving in 2024."

People have been blinded by the halving narrative so much that they refuse to view Bitcoin's growth/progression through the lens of anything but a 4 year, halving driven, cycle. I have repeatedly stated that the halving is a KNOWN event, on a set schedule, and that this information is priced in. Especially because at this point 92% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist has already been mined! Take a look at this chart here that I've shared without a "halving" related bias and you will see the idea of lengthening cycles makes a lot more sense: https://t.co/ECiEmXrn0S

NOW if we look at that chart above we can see that a Bitcoin cycle top at 69k WOULD be "different", and that if this cycle "is not different" to prior ones the top SHOULD take LONGER to form than prior tops as Bitcoin matures, volatility declines, and ROI from trough to peak of each cycle decreases.

Interestingly enough, the idea proposed above is reflected beautifully in the chart shared below, which is what caught my eye and made me begin writing this tweet in the first place.

This same data/idea is unknowingly presented in the @glassnode chart below, except at first glance it is depicted through the lens of a 4 year, halving cycle narrative once again. Let's take that lens off and take another look:

I've added annotations to the original chart and the key takeaways are:

1. Every cycle on Bitcoin since inception EXCEPT the one with a proposed top at 69k supports the lengthening cycle, lower ROI thesis.
2. IF our cycle did top at 69k it would be THE FIRST TIME that a full cycle has taken the SAME amount of time as a prior one.
3. IF our cycle did top at 69k it would be the ONLY cycle that topped with a YEAR LONG RANGE as opposed to a blow-off top.

Just like every prior Bitcoin cycle, the cycle that started in 2018 should NOT be over yet, it SHOULD take longer than the prior one, and it SHOULD yield a lower ROI as well.

Our "cycle top" being in at 69k would go against ALL of the above.

So my argument is simple- this time is NOT different.

We have yet to see the final 5th wave blow off top for this cycle that started in 2018 and we should see new all time highs on Bitcoin this year leading up to it. (For my best guess on when we see new highs, view this tweet here: https://t.co/4MiGtwgeoY)

If you liked this mini novel, please like and share.

I also challenge you guys to tag those in the comments that are staunch believers of the halving cycle narrative. Encourage people to open their minds to an idea they have potentially dismissed. Ask them to read this thread and give it a genuine chance, with no pre-conceived notions. I'm always open to respectful discussion of ideas from those with opposing viewpoints and I think it's always important to keep an open mind and consider ideas that run against the grain. If you agree, spread the word!

[Luke @Cryptwalk11]

@slutty_username 🤣

[Luke @Cryptwalk11]

@gemsays 🤣

[Herb @Herbworthy]

Let's go on a trip. 😇

via weedfeed

[Genius💡💹🧲 🤖 @GeniusPothead]

Shoutout to all the early humans that died trying to figure out which plants would get us high

[Wests Tigers @WestsTigers]

Wests Tigers offer its condolences to the family and friends of South Sydney legend John Sattler, who has passed away at the age of 80 🤍

[Luke @Cryptwalk11]

Standard Sunday afternoon drug bust at bunnings car park Bankstown 🤣

[(Coach K) @Coachkcrypto]

Imagine if parents were more like this still vs blaming everyone else for their kids problems.

Imagine you told them to work harder how kids wouldn’t be such weak minded victims!

Let’s bring this back!

[Luke @Cryptwalk11]

@livstor3r Stay strong 💪