CrystalBull

Stock market diviner. Freedom-As-First-Principle policy advocate.

Author of Do-Gooders, available on Amazon:

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

Looking for a great book to explain the current state of the world? With all the changes happening, can we predict what will happen next?

Exciting news! Our founder has published an incredible book: DO-GOODERS, available on Amazon. Of course, it's also on our recommended reading list.

This may be the only book you need to read to understand economic policy and predict outcomes. This is not an afternoon read. This book uses charts, data, and historical nuggets, with over 1,100 footnotes and citations, to prove its points. We have always been strong supporters of freedom and free markets. This book explains why so many government do-gooder policies cause unintended harm, and lays out a framework by which government policy can be analyzed.

If you truly want to understand bubbles and busts, the money supply, inflation, price caps, cryptocurrency, the New Deal, the gold standard, abortion rights, the minimum wage, Social Security, gun control, and much more, then this book is for you. And, it makes a great gift!

DO-GOODERS started 2025 as the top new release for Libertarianism. It's a must read!

NOTE: Amazon has a 550-page limit on hardcover books, so the hardcover uses a smaller font and tighter margins. For a more comfortable read, we recommend the paperback. It is 763 pages.

https://t.co/XjkWQznyzp

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

This AI just exposed the BIGGEST legal insider trading operation in America.

A platform called GovGreed built a seven-layer machine learning system that cross-references every stock trade disclosed by every sitting politician against the bills their committees control, the campaign donations they receive, and the companies their votes directly impact.

It scored all 540 politicians currently in Congress. And the numbers are crazy:

56% of every stock purchase made by Congress in the last 16 months was on a stock directly affected by a bill the buyer later voted on. That is 6,170 out of 11,016 total purchases.

More than HALF of all congressional stock buys are on companies whose fate that same politician is about to decide.

343 of 540 Congress members actively trade stocks while holding access to nonpublic legislative information.

That is 63.8% of the entire legislature making market bets with an informational edge that would put any hedge fund manager in prison.

The AI identified 752 active "Triple Signals" in the current Congress. A Triple Signal fires when three conditions line up at once:

The politician sits on the committee controlling a bill, they traded stock in a company affected by that bill, AND they received campaign contributions from that same industry.

Bills carrying these insider indicators pass at 5.4 TIMES the normal rate.

Now look at the individual leaderboard:

- Nancy Pelosi's estimated portfolio sits at $194 million with a Greediness score of 98.1 out of 100
- Ro Khanna made 13,231 trades across 800+ different tickers
- Michael McCaul made 32,302 trades and filed 6,670 of them late
- Thomas Suozzi filed 86.4% of his trades late with an average delay of 396 days, meaning his disclosures landed over a YEAR after he made the trade

And then there is Lisa McClain, the fourth-ranking Republican in the House. She has made 1,443 trades in three years, more than 98% of all politicians tracked.

She violated the STOCK Act twice in a single year, disclosing up to $900,000 in trades months after the legal deadline. Her husband bought up to $250,000 in Elon Musk's xAI, which quietly converted into SpaceX equity before last Friday's $2 trillion IPO.

The penalty for all of this? A $200 fine.

The number of Congress members ever prosecuted under the STOCK Act since it passed in 2012? Zero.

And the cruelest part is this:

A bill to ban congressional stock trading was introduced in January 2026. It has bipartisan support. Over 80% of American voters want it passed.

But Congress is sitting on it, because the people who would have to vote yes are the same people making millions from the system staying exactly the way it is.

They write the insider trading laws, they exempt themselves from enforcement, they trade on the information those laws generate, and when they get caught, they pay a fine that is basically nothing.

The AI didn't discover anything Congress was hiding. It just organized what was already public into a pattern so obvious that nobody can pretend it isn't there anymore.

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

$SPCX is $220 after hours. Heads are going to explode tomorrow!

[Do-Gooders @_Do_Gooders]

Obama promised to cut family premiums by $2,500. In ten years, household healthcare costs rose $8,000.
#ObamaAppreciationDay

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

Hooray, @elonmusk! Showing us that capitalism works, and drives progress. Everyone benefits. Electric cars, self driving, free speech, internet connections for the poor and outliers, bringing speech to the speechless and mobility to the immobile, robots to eliminate hard or mundane labor, tunnels to ease traffic, truth-seeking AI, data centers off the planet, moon base, on much more to come.

If you're one of those Elon haters, wake the ƒ$#@ up!

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

@ThomasSowell Financial education in this country is terrible. This is doable for most in the middle class with enough discipline.

65 gets here REALLY fast, so start early.

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

@chamath The models will eventually converge and become a commodity.

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

@elonmusk @micsolana I cover this in my book. “Gene drive” is the targeted solution with fewest potential adverse unintended consequences. @FutureJurvetson

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

@chamath Or uttered

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

@steve_hanke And yet the market doesn’t care. https://t.co/bY54ARLGIG

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

@chamath I replaced Quickbooks Online with a web app in one week. It creates the 1120 Corp tax forms with one click.

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

Incredible. @grok did this? @elonmusk @Monique_X
@Nate_Esparza

[Mo2know @Mo_2_Know]

@grok is wiser. @elonmusk @jon

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

@TheBTCTherapist @grok It’s not the absolute price, per se. It’s the slope of the decline. Bitcoin is a “greater fool” asset, and if hodlers start to think it’s going to zero, they’ll panic, and a death spiral will occur. A Spike in miner fees will exacerbate.

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

@grok @FutureJurvetson Animate it

[Do-Gooders @_Do_Gooders]

"I call it the 'law of the instrument,' and it may be formulated as follows: Give a small boy a hammer, and he will find that everything he encounters needs pounding."


— Abraham Kaplan, The Conduct of Inquiry, 1964

If you're going to dress law enforcement officers up as soldiers and send them into civilian life, you are setting us up for disaster. And, they had better be well-trained in restraint and de-escalation.

Fail. And, fail.

Stanford Prison, Kent State, Branch Davidians, Ruby Ridge, Abu Ghraib, Minnesota. And countless others that didn't make the news because the correct tribe was in power.

It's not just a bad look; it's actually bad.

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

@SCMountainGoat I went to a physical therapist who is an athlete. He put my elbow into an unnatural position, then pulled. I felt a tear. He said that was scar tissue forming that needed to be released. Immediately felt better and was back to normal in days.

[david friedberg @friedberg]

why not just raise income tax rates?

because your real intent is not to just “provide healthcare”.

you’re masking that you are proposing the creation of, for the first time in the 250 years of this American republic, an organized government seizure of private property from citizens.

you’re calling it a “wealth tax” or a “billionaires tax” or “millionaires tax” or whatever nom du jour polls well. but at the end of the day, it’s the seizure of private property from citizens by the government. citizens that earned money, paid their fair taxes on those earnings (53% if they live in California) and are now being told they need to hand over after-tax assets because the government has failed to provide promised services with the revenue it’s collected, and are now re-casting their own failure to be a socio-economic inequity that must be justly resolved... a slippery slope that has never gone anywhere good (see economic effects in USSR, Cuba, Venezuela, France and Norway wealth tax etc.)

the American founders fled tyranny in Europe and this amazing nation was populated by immigrants (myself and your parents) from around the world not just looking for a “better life” but for a place where they could have freedom from tyrannical governments that can take what they want from private citizens. a great nation borne of property rights, the rule of law, and endowed freedoms to believe, speak, or act. these principles led to the greatest run of innovations, successes, and widespread increase in prosperity, for all citizens, ever seen.

the citizens, the individuals, not the institutions, delivered this progress. those who invented, who toiled, who bled, who sacrificed, who took risk and persevered, who led, and who changed the world, are not charlatans, kleptocrats, or oligarchs. they’re what made us all better off. prosperity is a measure of america’s success, not its failure.

it is your principle that is so offensive, as evidenced by the broad disdain for your flippant flirtation with the darkest of human fantasy - socialism. you and other neo-socialists have led so many of us to reflect on America’s history and what it is becoming. that now leads so many to consider, so unnecessarily, leaving their homes for a place where everyone stands up to shout down the principle you suggest. because if your ideas are now considered moderate, it’s clear this titanic is sinking.

that a “simple tax” of taking assets that have been earned, through toil and tribulation, rightly taxed, and preserved, should now be unjustly seized, is your solution to a problem of obvious government mismanagement and outright fraud, tells us that your true motivation lies not in giving people healthcare but in cutting down success and deleting the system of prosperity and opportunity for all.

i don’t care, and neither should anyone else, what the sum total market value of a private citizens private assets might be. it is none of my business and should be none of yours. because, again, once you open that pandora’s box, we might as well study Lord of the Flies … there is literally nothing stopping 51% of citizens demanding that their government go out and seize 100% of the private property of the 49%.

want to give healthcare to people in need? do your job and fix healthcare. make it affordable. want to be lazy about it? then do your job lazily and raise income taxes.

want to take private property from private citizens who have paid their fair share of taxes and legally earned their property, then honestly declare that it is envy, not inequity, that you strive to resolve…

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

Right on cue. GDP has climbed back to 4.3%, which is clearly above trend. Much of this is predictable.

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

Explainer: were a company to front load imports, buying a bunch of cheap Chinese widgets before tariffs go up, the investment account (I) increases by the same amount as imports (M), as those widgets are placed in inventory. That's a wash to GDP.

However, imports (M) are counted immediately, while inventories (part of I) are tallied a bit later, as accountings are recorded.

So, a flood of imports CAN temporarily decrease GDP. GDP will be revised higher when the numbers are in. And any effect of this front loading will show the opposite next quarter.

GDP is measured Q/Q, annualized.

Follow me for more explainers

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

@FutureJurvetson @centivax Whaaaaaa...?

[CrystalBull @CrystalBull]

@Drlipid @nationallipid @society_eas @ASPCardio @escardio @atherosociety I'm old enough to remember when we were told those symptoms were psychosomatic.