CypherXBT

Footprints All the Way

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 NOW: Anthropic chief DARIO just walked up and said President Trump helped put his Super Intelligence worries at ease

"If we do this right, we work with the President and everyone here, we can win safely!"

Imagine that, all it took was DONALD J. TRUMP getting involved and the tables are turning!

No more SI dooming, no more surrendering to China.

America will remain number one BOTH for national and economic security, as long as Trump is president 👏🏻

[MAXPAIN @Mangyek0]

Today marks the start of something new for me! It started 6-9 months ago, when i started seeing a lot of algo trading posts on my feed.

It started with @therobotjames in its early phase, then expanded to @ScottPh77711570, well-stablished voices in the algo trading space. Then @dima_quant @ZenomTrader @algojan @MrMilkTrading and others. Along the way, I had nice lil discussions with @FMChain_ and others.

The research spanned across multiple platform and months, from Rob's https://t.co/NxGp9nmNaj to his books, multiple research papers, a research pipeline, Dave Whitcomb (Peak trading research) and by extension Kevin Davey, Rene Balke and NeuroTrader888 (this dude's insane) on YT and other resources I collected along the way.

Where I'm at right now?
- I've recreated Rob's continuous trading strategy from his ATFS book. (just the trend following)
- did a forward test for 3 months
- bot is running live on testnet
- planning to take it live at the end of this week or start of next week.

It's not a faithful recreation per se. I've adapted the EWMAs for crypto with Rob's tips (it's unbelievable X can make this happen) and hand-picked a few coins. Running it on multiple speeds with it.

BTW, I am still skeptical of this journey, algo trading. It could all crash and burn or succeed. It's exciting and dangerous at the same time.

Wish me wisdom, not luck!

[IgnoreTheRedDressNeo @TheRedDressNeo]

@zerohedge This is the best video that explains this.

https://t.co/BgY7I8DEPd

[Derive Insights @deriveinsights]

September Recap: BTC Options Positioning on Derive

$BTC is up about 7% in September, from $78.6K. The monthly low of $75.0K printed on Sep 15, the day the Clarity Act failed its Senate cloture vote 49-50. A week later BTC traded at $87.4K.

The largest structures on @DeriveXYZ expiring Oct 9 or later,,,,:

Dec 25 $100K was the most-sold strike. Net 715 Dec 100/125 call spreads and 153 Dec 100K calls were sold over the month, $1.34M in premium. Selling came both near $79K early in the month and near $86K after the rally.

300x Oct 30 85/95 call spreads were bought on Sep 10 with spot at $77K, for $402K. On Sep 24, with spot at $84K, 200x of the same spread traded on the sell side for $552K.

The longest-dated position: 200x Jun 2027 125/200 call spreads for $427K. Maximum payout is $15M if BTC is above $200K at expiry.

Put flow was flat: $349K bought vs. $356K sold, against $5.8M in total call premium.

Text & Analysis by: @moritzpike
Data by: @DeriveXYZ Trade Tape

[CypherXBT @Cypher0256]

@kingfisher_btc One question is it naively
Assumped or do you have any specifcc algo for determining the GEX ?

Also isnit based of aggregating multiple sources or just using a single source ?

Also the level assumed near the 83900 is it spreading across multiple short dtes or one one DTe?

[Derivatives Monkey 衍生品猴子 (billionaire arc) @derivativemonky]

made some huge changes to the Open Interest sectionn of https://t.co/3EroQ3Q57x :

OI Heatmap = where open interest sits by strike over time, with spot price overlaid

OI Concentration by Expiry = Open interest density by strike and expiry.

made sure that each of the tab is super clean😁

[Derive Insights @deriveinsights]

$ETH Update:

The market might be sideways but guess what, $ETH Call Spread Fever is back at it again, this time the OI is much greater than before. On Derive, the 5K and 7K calls are dwarfing every other strike. 5K calls sit at 81,862 contracts (about $4.3M), 7K calls at 75,505 contracts (about $1.1M), almost none of it puts. Together that's over half of all open interest on the platform.

Data & Analysis by @derivativemonky

[D @domdosu]

https://t.co/BWP7VGeRux

[Derive Insights @deriveinsights]

https://t.co/vnmQ3KRM31

[Derivatives Monkey 衍生品猴子 (billionaire arc) @derivativemonky]

as always , order-flow & options data will be available for free ;)

If you want to support the site , please use my ref link on @DeriveXYZ when you trade😉

Link : https://t.co/OpEYP70mF2

code : derivativesmonkey // Follow the steps down :

[Pramod Goyal @goyal__pramod]

Took the time and wrote down everything I have been learning about GPUs and CUDA. Consider checking it out! https://t.co/mwhzTH8Ars

[Derive Insights @deriveinsights]

$IBIT Update:

IBIT jumped 6.5% on Monday to $49, then faded four sessions in a row to close Friday at $47.6. Still up about 3.4% on the week from $46.0. Friday's expiry is cleared and about 7M contracts remain open, leaning calls with puts at 0.7 per call. The Oct 16 monthly is the next big expiry and Jan 2027 is the biggest overall. Front ATM IV slid from around 37% to 33% through the week, and the curve is still in contango out to 60 days.

Data & Analysis by @derivativemonky

[Derivatives Monkey 衍生品猴子 (billionaire arc) @derivativemonky]

It's getting close bros😂😁

Rolling out a bunch of stuff soon :)

[Derive Insights @deriveinsights]

$BTC Update:

The Sep monthly is settled and the Oct 30 expiry is now the biggest, holding about 36% of all BTC OI. Call wall sits at $90K, and calls still outweigh puts across the board.

Data & Analysis by @derivativemonky

[Derivatives Monkey 衍生品猴子 (billionaire arc) @derivativemonky]

Thanks to everyone of you for trusting me with running copy trading vault :)

We are up +285% in couple of months , last few weeks , I did not traded kek but returns could have been much higher lol

I have dm'ed whoever invested in vault to take out funds since I wont be running it anymore😁 Anyone that's left please takeout the funds.

Traded mostly $BTC , $MU & major caps only.

[Derive Insights @deriveinsights]

$BTC Update:

With one of the biggest expiries (25Sept,26) coming to an end tomorrow, the traders are already bracing for the impact, which is evident by how much of the chart is biased towards the Put Skew (Puts IV > Calls IV highlighted in Red).

Even with Put IV bid up, overall IV is still cheap heading into tomorrow, with ATM IV around 33% against realized vol near 40%.

Data & Analysis by @derivativemonky

[Derivatives Monkey 衍生品猴子 (billionaire arc) @derivativemonky]

scared? don't worry about a thing :)

Correction is going to end soon & we'll get into longs as soon as such PA develops. I don't think its over yet lol probably another higher low UNLESS and until we spend enough time below 82K area in that case yeah things can get ugly. But until then , happy to be bullish:)

[CypherXBT @Cypher0256]

@agtrader Is this the ECharts lib you got on there pr any custom charting library ?

[Derive Insights @deriveinsights]

The cheapest, cleanest way to insure a long without giving up your upside: buy OTM puts on the long-dated expiries, out several months to a year or more.

Time decay is slow out there, so you're not bleeding premium every day like a weekly hedge. Buy it once, keep riding the uptrend, and it just sits there quietly doing its job, whether you ever need it or not.

The following image is an example of an OTM Put

Stay long. Stay in the uptrend. Just don't stay naked.

Thread by @derivativemonky

[Derive Insights @deriveinsights]

Can it happen again? Maybe. Maybe not.

The honest answer: the probability of another 10/10-style flash crash on any given day is low. But low isn't zero, and if you're holding size, or long with any leverage, "low" is still a real number sitting on your book.

You don't have to choose between "stay long" and "get out." There's a third option. Insurance.