DiamondAlpha1016

Yankees, Jets, Nets, Rangers - Finance

[Podcast Alpha @PodcastAlphaX]

14 levered ETFs are queued to launch on SpaceX IPO day.

Brad Gerstner (@altcap) named that as his clearest froth indicator on @theallinpod. SpaceX at an implied $1.75 trillion valuation. Leveraged retail products launching the same day. That's not organic conviction - it's late-cycle product creation.

His response: if $100K of fresh capital appeared today, he would deploy 30%. Not all of it.

"We may not be at the top, but we ain't at the bottom."

Gavin Baker agreed it's 2021, not 1999. But a 10-20% correction in public semis means 30-40% drawdowns in high-beta names. Investors in for three years would call it a blip. Retail investors who just got in would panic.

Entry timing is the entire variable right now.

Full breakdown on how to size into the SpaceX IPO window:
https://t.co/JixFmayoKP
Source: All-In Podcast - https://t.co/okThY983z8

[DiamondAlpha1016 @DAlpha1016]

@ThierryBorgeat So “crazy”

[DiamondAlpha1016 @DAlpha1016]

@ThierryBorgeat If only there was a metric that measured the profits on those sales

[DiamondAlpha1016 @DAlpha1016]

@NetsNationCP Ja Morant has negative value…. Why are we dropping 10 slots 😂 😂

[OLDSKOOLBBALL @oldskoolbballx]

What did Michael Jordan think about 3-point shooting?

“My 3-point shooting is something that I don’t want to excel at, because it takes away from all phases of my game. My game is a fake, drive to the hole, penetrate, dish off, dunk, whatever, and when you have that mentality, as I found out in the first game, of making threes, you don’t go to the hole as much. You go to the 3-point line and you start sitting there waiting for someone to find you. And that’s not my mentality, and I don’t want to create that because it takes away from my other parts of my game.”

[Podcast Alpha @PodcastAlphaX]

If you're long $NVDA, the bear case might be structural, not fundamental.

Dan Loeb on @theallinpod: pod shops are designed to carry short exposure. At $5 trillion, $NVDA is the default safe short - large enough, long enough run, easy to justify to LPs.

The bears aren't making a fundamental call. They're filling a structural requirement. That's why the discount persists. And when earnings force a re-rate, the unwind could be fast.

Loeb: undervalued on a 2-3 year basis. Same pattern preceded Amazon's and Google's breakouts.

Full pod mechanics breakdown:
https://t.co/PD4fBjBDUa
Source: All-In Podcast - https://t.co/7OPUSYNIvz

[Operation Logos @OperationLogos]

@enews It’s bad enough they murdered their baby, but then they went public and are playing victim for murdering their baby.
Wild times we live in.

[MD @mike_daddino]

Let’s talk about why Wemby is terrified of going into the paint

[DiamondAlpha1016 @DAlpha1016]

@awealthofcs This is true BUT I think the people attending games 3 and 4 have likely maxed already or don’t care 😂 😂

[James Altucher @jaltucher]

For people who are worried about the market today, I get it. This stuff is very stressful.

So I put together a chart of all of the times the VIX (the "fear index" of the market) was up over 30% in a day (like today) in the past ten years.

23 out of 25 instances the market was higher one month later. The only two times it wasn't was Feb 2020 when Covid hit the economy in March 2020.

What is the underlying message? When people are afraid, they make bad decisions. Do the opposite.

Attached is a chart summarizing my results.

[E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. @RealEJAntoni]

Number of federal bureaucrats declined again in May - 17th straight month of declines:

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

March jobs were revised up by 29,000, from +185,000 to +214,000, and April was revised up by 64,000, from +115,000 to +179,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 93,000 higher than previously reported.

[DiamondAlpha1016 @DAlpha1016]

@DeItaone This is why no one takes the French seriously

[ClutchPoints @ClutchPoints]

"Bryant, to Shaq!"

26 years ago today, Kobe connected with O'Neal to complete the Lakers' 15-point comeback against the Blazers in Game 7 of the WCF to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals 👊

(🎥: @NBAHistory)

[Jesse Morse, M.D. @DrJesseMorse]

Thoughts on Aaron Judge’s stress fracture in his right rib

[D. Ferrel💣 @dferrel15]

There’s NO CENTER IN NBA HISTORY that could deal with this man. Argue with a wall.

[Jaynit @jaynitx]

Kobe Bryant reveals exactly why so many athletes go broke a few years after retirement

"Once you retire you don't have that source of income coming in. Even if you save over a 15-year career, if your spending habits remain the same, eventually that well is going to run dry"

"For us athletes the retirement age is 32, 34, if you're lucky 37 like myself. What comes next?"

"The question needs to be, what is my passion. Not where I can create the most value or generate the most revenue, but what is my next passion"

"When you find that next passion, then everything else will make sense"

"But that's the hardest part for us"

"We have to constantly learn. Our mantra is value growth, because to grow you have to constantly learn, constantly move, constantly improve"

[kmoney @kmoney]

in 2000, @saylor was the laughing stock of wall street after losing $6B of investors money.

but he didn’t quit.

he spent the next 26 years of his life retard maxxing and found a new way to run it back and achieve an even bigger loss of investors money.

inspirational 💯

[DiamondAlpha1016 @DAlpha1016]

@shanaka86 He is not short 1m shares 😂 😂 learn how to read a 13F

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

This chart tells you the Iran War oil shock is over.

Brent peaked at $130 on the war. Ceasefire pulled it back to $100.

Consensus: the spike is behind us, normalization is underway.

But 3 of the most credible voices in oil told the market the chart has it backwards.

ExxonMobil's SVP Neil Chapman: inventories at "really, really low levels," physical Brent at $150–160 in 2 to 3 weeks.

Chevron's CEO Mike Wirth: $80 is the floor case, upside reaches "very high numbers."

Vitol's MD Tom Baker: the turning point comes when refineries need molecules and they aren't there.

What this chart isn't showing:
the buffers that absorbed the shock haven't run out yet.
The ceasefire reduced fear, not supply. ~14 mbpd is still offline.
Commercial crude is now 3% below the 5-year average.
Distillate is also 3% below both crossed the threshold this week per today's EIA print.

The chart is showing pre buffer exhaustion prices.

Chapman is calling the post-buffer-exhaustion print.

I broke down the buffer math and the week by week play by play for the 6 oil-direct names in The Merchant's Portfolio in my latest edition.

The market is reading this chart as the end of the shock. The smart money is positioning for the second leg.
Read the full edition👇