DM

Numbers guy + chess master. Love 🇺🇸 and 🇮🇱.

[DM @DM138138]

@electionsjoe You aren't. The crazy D+9 polls were never real. It was response bias. We saw this in summer 2024. Now the real results are showing up again.

Response bias could be a proxy for enthusiasm, in which case the result could materialize, but the polls themselves are garbage.

[DM @DM138138]

@ScottJenningsKY Gen Z entitlement mindset from a 70 year old man is something to behold.

[DM @DM138138]

@uth3nt1k @alpha_numer0 @Mickey_White205 @EricLDaugh They tried to nuke the filibuster then. They only failed because of manchin and sinema. They promptly purged both of them from the party.

The next time the Dems take control they will nuke it, and there are no moderate Dems left to stop it. We may as well do it first.

[DM @DM138138]

@OneIceyBoi @MWpatriot01 They will make him do it. Via bribes or threats (or both).

Everyone said Biden would never step down. Even Biden himself insisted that. And then suddenly he did.

[DM @DM138138]

Rs are rejoicing too soon about Platner. They forget how ruthless the Ds are.

They will force Platner to drop out, and then the socialist who is nominated to replace him will look normal in comparison. Indies will say "at least i wouldn't have voted for platner" and vote blue.

[DM @DM138138]

@NateSilver538 There's a name for the party with unilateral control of this state that implemented this crazy system. It's on the tip of Nate's tongue but he can't bring himself to say it.

[DM @DM138138]

@varadmehta Osborn overperformed. I think there are enough stupid people + the mainstream media goes along with the narrative.

Whereas if Spencer Pratt runs as a nonpartisan, all the media talks about is how he's really MAGA. That's why it doesn't work as well the other way around.

[DM @DM138138]

This is a very good observation.

That said, this year I expect Dems to gain. They had a late surge in returns in the early vote; many were likely undecided between Bass and Raman or between Governor options. So this year late breaking ballots will likely be bluer than usual.

[Real Political Data @RealPData]

So I know the main argument right now is the remaining ballots should be late arriving ones, which on paper should give Democrats a boost, but there's a major problem with this argument some people are making:

It's not only not a universal guarantee , people over exaggerate how big of a shift that happens.

Now to be clear before I continue, I am not predicting California will shift either way or not shift a huge margin, I am just trying to clarify to people that some of the talking points are exaggerated and or complete lies.

Back in the 2022 California Governor Primary, with ~49% of the vote in (which is slightly less than we got right now, but somewhat similar set of circumstances with what votes should mostly be outstanding) Gavin Newsom was at 56.3% and Brian Dahle (the main Republican) was at 16.8% of the vote. When all the votes were counted, Gavin Newsom got 56.2% and Brian Dahle got 17.5%.

In the 2024 California Senate Primary, with ~52% of the vote in, Steve Garvey was at 32.6% while the three main Democrats were at a combined 54.2%. By the end of the election, Steve Garvey ended up with 31.5% and the three main Democrats ended up at 56.7%.

Or even in the 2024 Presidential election, with ~56% of the vote in, Harris was at 57.3% while Trump was at 40.1%. When everything was counted, Harris ended up with 58.5% of the vote and Trump got 38.3% of the vote. The Senate election that year also had Schiff at 57.3% and Garvey at 42.7% with ~54% of the vote, by the end of the election Schiff got 58.9% and Garvey 41.1%.

What this should tell you is while yes, usually the later arriving ballots do help Democrats, it's not only not usually to the scale that some people are pushing, there's been several times in recent years where the inverse actually happens and Republicans gain (especially in some congressional races).

[Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17]

This is a reminder that there are real consequences to counting votes late. When citizens wake up, they expect they'll see some results that decently reflect the election outcome.

Seeing this — and then seeing Pan surge in the last 45% of the vote — destroys trust in elections.

[DM @DM138138]

@Redistrict If this happened to Rs, your framing would be "in a humorous turn of fate, R gerrymander may backfire..."

Try to keep your language neutral. As someone who appreciates your analysis but dislikes the partisan framing it's very frustrating.

[DM @DM138138]

@earlyvotedata Unfortunately the Dem will take over.

[DM @DM138138]

@WokeAnnUpdates @PollTracker2024 What if the voter intends to vote for one and marks the wrong one by mistake? Or doesn't understand RCV at all and just says "I'm confused" and leaves it blank.

You overestimate the intelligence of the average American. RCV is confusing.

[DM @DM138138]

@varadmehta They won't let her run

[DM @DM138138]

@WokeAnnUpdates @PollTracker2024 Yes there is because many voters get confused how it works (or forget) and don't select a second choice.

[DM @DM138138]

@StatisticUrban Can you do this graph for NY and CA? Those have been shifting redder recently. Obv they are not remotely competitive yet (neither is Texas) but the charts would be interesting.

[DM @DM138138]

@Real_Politik101 Agree. Similar to abortion, it needs to be a negative about Ds, not a positive about Rs (midterm sentiment is always upset at the party in power).

For 2028, we need a positive angle for Rs. IMO it should be housing affordability. Build more homes, reduce interest rates, etc.

[DM @DM138138]

@ScottPresler In Jewish belief, God has both male and female manifestations (nurturing like a mother, strict like a father, etc.). Not sure the Christian viewpoint on this. But God is certainly not "non-binary" or "trans" or whatever nonsense Talarico the "seminarian" pretends.

[DM @DM138138]

@ScottPresler He clearly does not know Hebrew grammar btw. That first comment is nonsense.

In Hebrew, "ruach" ("spirit") is a feminine noun. The verse says "... and the spirit of God was hovering...", & uses the feminine form for hovering because spirit is feminine. That doesn't mean God is!

[DM @DM138138]

@varadmehta Why are his arms so thin???

He might actually be a vegan

[DM @DM138138]

@celeste43_ @yesh222 No - redder. If you compare 2026 to, say, 2022 (or to registrations by party), R's are wayyyy outperforming.