Danny Moses

Investor (looking for the next Big Short)/Inventor (BlackJack Side-Bet Games)/Skeptic (student of Behavioral Finance)/Hedonist; not Investment advice

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Our note (August 5th) was about Treasury's YEN intervention & why there was more to come. Our new note discusses what's happened since & what to expect from the #FED. If you can count cards, you have a much better chance when "betting against the house".
https://t.co/3R81ZS3xd0

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

We @Seawolfcap @VD718 recorded this "Friday Night Dirty" after the close Thursday. We felt “Running on Empty”, best describes the state of the U.S. Treasury Market at the moment. We also discuss $CRWV $GLAS and more..

Is The Bond Market Running On Empty? https://t.co/1IFsM2M2Rk

[RiskReversal Media @RiskReversal]

New pod in your feed this morning!

Dan sat down with @RealJimChanos and @GaryMarcus to talk all things AI, data center financing, agentic systems, animal spirits and p(doom) scenarios 🎙️🤖

YouTube: https://t.co/13a8p6l4Me
Apple: https://t.co/00KHAaE4fH
Spotify: https://t.co/fzOnR2CPs2

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Always great to get @DDeBusschere22V thoughts on the markets. We hit #FED #TREASURY & why the strong economy is sending 10 yr yields higher (not just inflation). We discuss the upcoming elections (U.S. & Brazil). Of course we had to discuss @nyknicks & the launch of @22VAdvDirect

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

New On The Tape with @dmoses34 and @DDeBusschere22V is out now 🎙️

🏦 Why the Fed Was Right to Hike
🤖 AI Capex Is Coming for Treasuries
📉 Why Higher Unemployment Would Be Bullish
💻 Long Software, Watch Housing
🇧🇷 Brazil's Election Rerating Trade

YouTube: https://t.co/A2Ic9J8tvL
Apple: https://t.co/rkLwkmWNl6
Spotify: https://t.co/k0FWivYtQJ

[EllioTrades @elliotrades]

He saw the housing bubble BEFORE it burst

Then helped pull off one of the greatest trades in Wall Street history

Danny Moses (@dmoses34) of THE BIG SHORT joins us LIVE

What does he see in today’s markets that everyone else is missing?

https://t.co/BKBNbgGmVH

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

On this week's "Friday Night Dirty" @Seawolfcap @VD718 & myself discuss the recent actions/words that Bessent is using to try & instill confidence in our Treasury markets. Preview of the #FED & more.

The Donkeys Are Counting Cards & Taking On “The House” https://t.co/0DCD2Z4E07

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

"Households now have more wealth in the equity market than they do in their homes... it's the first time that's happened in multiple decades."

@CameronDawson to @dmoses34 on why the stock market has quietly become the thing the economy can't afford to have go down 🏡📈

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Always insightful and generous with her time, @CameronDawson shares her thoughts and views on the markets. September tends to be a tough month for markets in a mid-term election year & this one is no different. "Price leads Data" and Cameron breaks down that data she is watching.

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

New On The Tape with @dmoses34 and @CameronDawson out now🎙️

📉 Falling Valuations, Rising Stocks
🤖 Mag 7's Earnings Quality Problem
💸 AI Capex Is Crowding Out the Market
🏠 The Stock Market Is the New Housing Market
🥇 Gold: Narrative vs. Reality

YouTube: https://t.co/U4Lme1WJYt
Apple: https://t.co/I2X7FZuVht
Spotify: https://t.co/j7ba0HmJGo

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Somehow on this week’s “Friday Night Dirty” we were able to incorporate Dolly Parton, Braveheart, The Untouchables, Ocean’s Eleven & The Harlem Globetrotters all in one episode: $NVDA $GLNG $SCHW #FED #TREASURY @Seawolfcap @VD718

https://t.co/5u6FVyOrzx

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

The last time @nedmichaels was @OnTheTapePod was in late March for @TheMasters preview & the impact the war in Iran was having on the markets. While $/YEN is roughly flat, global bond yields are higher & Treasury intervention has begun. We hit $GLD $MLPA #FED & @TOURChamp preview

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

The return of @NedMichaels to On The Tape with @dmoses34 is out now!!!

⛳ Tour Championship Picks
🏌️ President's Cup Preview at Medina
🏦 Kevin Warsh's First Jackson Hole as Fed Chair
🥇 Why Gold (and the Miners) Keep Climbing
🛢️ MLPs, LNG & Energy Infrastructure Plays
🏛️ Government Shutdown Odds

YouTube: https://t.co/nanNLXltn8
Apple: https://t.co/T2mRS7GOIL
Spotify: https://t.co/zetUSstSLh

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

The theme for this week's "Dirty" is "Follow The Yellow Brick Road" ($GLD) as Bessent (The Wizard) & Warsh (The Lion) play their roles. @VD718 examines $CVNA economics & @Seawolfcap discusses $ARGT $GLNG $VIST $YPF $EPD $MPLX $ET & we make a @nyjets bet.

https://t.co/pkcYzmdOL6

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

One of the big takeaways/validations from this, which came up in my conversation with @nkagan_official when she was @OnTheTapePod, was that roughly 75% of people that visit @Kalshi use it as an accurate source for information, whether or not they trade on the platform.

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

We ran a study on over 2 million markets to evaluate their calibration. To our knowledge, this is the largest replicable study on this topic.

Here are the results: 🧵

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Hard to believe it has already been a year since @sonalibasak announced she was heading to @icapitalnetwork & she has been busy. We discuss Sonali's most recent research reports & cover several topics, including AI, Bonds, the consumer, & what went down at Situational Awareness.

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

The long awaited return of @sonalibasak to On The Tape with @dmoses34 is out now!!!

🤖 The Real Winners as AI Token Costs Collapse
🏦 Nvidia's $500B Compute Financing Play
📉 Situational Awareness (Or Lack Thereof)
🛢️ $80 Oil & Concerned Consumers
💴 Treasury Market Worries

YouTube: https://t.co/EyGemZpKBY
Apple: https://t.co/bfonMJmpWn
Spotify: https://t.co/OlrjPl2LvX

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Larry Fink @CNBC : "Importantly, I look at the financing of data centers..um..this is the very beginning like what it was when I started in the (MBS) market in the 1970’s and I look upon this as a next future for financial engineering" (LET'S HOPE NOT!)
https://t.co/NuNzh8oW0d

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

The $JPY is beginning to fade & while I'm sure more intervention is coming (Bessent: we will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention) it reminds me of this scene (Jaws) when Quint is shocked the shark can go under w/ 3 barrels @GuyAdami
https://t.co/OPpKdsd0p2

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Great discussion w/ @nkagan_official about her journey from academia to @KalshiResearch & the process behind the creation/certification of the event contracts you see listed @Kalshi. The research that accompanies these events (i.e. “cost of compute”) is even more impressive.

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

The Federal Reserve's own researchers confirmed it: @KalshiResearch beats Bloomberg consensus on inflation 🏦

@DMoses34 sits down with Head of Research Nicole Kagan to discuss how prediction markets are becoming a real information edge 📈🎙️

YouTube: https://t.co/hibeHO5CNc
Apple: https://t.co/mOaecbzdBn
Spotify: https://t.co/fMy8avdqMX

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

@LawrenceLepard @LukeGromen @VD718 @Seawolfcap There is a 30 day free trial going on so please use this link:
https://t.co/oJhJ3A6WAq

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Fresh off the #FED meeting, we chat with @LukeGromen for a special Thursday edition of the Friday Night Dirty. The opening song: "No Easy Way Out" is definitely the theme. We hit #USDebt $DXY $GLD $BTC #stablecoins #China and more... @Seawolfcap @VD718

https://t.co/dsOiVa3znz

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Timely to have @BobEUnlimited back on with the #FED & #BOJ meetings this week. Lots to discuss: #OIL #GOLD $TIP #CHINA #AI #PrivateCredit #Housing @Vanguard_Group & the supply/demand mismatch emerging in both stocks and bonds. Plus @Kalshi picks involving the #FED and $SPY

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

Everyone's watching the Fed this week, but @BobEUnlimited says watch oil and the Strait of Hormuz instead!

🦅 The "Hawkish Hold" Warsh Delivers This Week
🏦 What @Kalshi Markets Say About Rate Hikes
🛢️ Oil, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz Squeeze
📈 Odds The S&P Hits 8,000
🤖 Is AI CapEx Actually Deflationary?

On the Tape with @dmoses34 is out now🎙️

YouTube: https://t.co/rE1XbtylXO
Apple: https://t.co/h8YdONV5kf
Spotify: https://t.co/FS7T2izhfm

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

In this week's "Friday Night Dirty", @Seawolfcap @VD718 & myself discuss $TSLA $SPCX $GOOG $AXP $COF $SLB #FED #BOJ #RATES #OIL as well as an event we attended in Chicago which puts everything in perspective..

Investors Feel The Sting | Friday Night Dirty https://t.co/wW9uFAj92T