Darren.Naduriak

Brace up yards, ya cack-handed deck apes! Dying is the day worth living for!

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

Bird autism is definitely one of the best forms of autism. What a legend. 👏👏👏

[Darren.Naduriak @DNaduriak]

@StockMKTNewz Deadcat bounce soon? Loool

[Acyn @Acyn]

McGovern: It took us forever to compensate the victims of 9/11, and here you have this $1.8 billion slush fund that doesn’t go through any committees or hearings. All of a sudden, they have the money to compensate convicted felons—people who attacked our democracy and tried to overthrow a free and fair election.

This is the most corrupt administration in our history.

[Give A Shit About Nature @giveashitnature]

Farmers have figured out that the cheapest pesticide is a strip of flowers.

When you plant wildflowers through a crop field, not just around the edge but in strips running through the middle, you get ladybugs, lacewings, hoverflies, and parasitic wasps living in the field instead of visiting it.

They eat the aphids, the caterpillars, and the mites for free, all summer long.

In controlled trials, fields with tailored flower strips had leaf-beetle numbers 40 to 50% lower and crop damage cut by around 60%, enough to drop below the threshold where spraying was even considered worth it.

The flowers attract a standing army to our fields.

We spent decades engineering chemicals to kill the insects eating the crop, when the insects that eat those insects would have worked for the price of seed.

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Lmaooooo, I’m crying

[Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly]

A month ago we had an AI bull market, declining inflation, falling gas prices & impending rate cuts.

One miscalculation later, we have an AI bear market, rising inflation, rising gas prices, potential rate hikes, and Americans killed in action.

A fumble of epic proportions...

[Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️ @bennpeifert]

Raoul Pal is the dumbest mf on the planet and you people lick up his slop because he pumps your bags. Find principles somewhere

[Congresswoman Maxine Dexter @RepDexterOR]

BREAKING: I just motioned to subpoena Don Trump Jr. for funneling $670 million in taxpayer dollars to a critical minerals company he has financial stake in.

Republicans left the hearing room.

[Alan Smith @AlanJLSmith]

Have you watched The Manosphere with Louis Theroux on Netflix?

As the Dad of a 17 year old son, I think @jimmycarr is spot on.

What do you think?

[Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory]

While Trump dodged the draft, Robert Mueller volunteered for the Marines after graduating Princeton. He was awarded a Bronze Star with combat V, rescuing a wounded Marine while under fire. He was later shot in the thigh, awarded a Purple Heart, and returned to lead his platoon.

[Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) @SpecialSitsNews]

Worst case in the Strait of Hormuz below and why insurance costs are up 20x, from 0.25% per vessel to 5% (+300k per voyage already!)

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Me asking for a raise while the CEO is already planning to replace me with AI

[Matt Walsh @MattWalshBlog]

So just to recap: a prison guard who lied to the authorities about checking on Epstein also coincidentally made a series of deposits in the weeks leading up to his death that were so suspicious that the bank independently reported them to the police. That same prison guard was searching for news about Epstein in the moments before his death. And that same guard was independently named by inmates who claimed that she was involved in covering up the killing. Also, two cameras in front of Epstein's cell malfunctioned while all of this was happening. That's a whole lot of coincidences stacking up on top of each other. I don't know. Seems strange to me. But I'm no detective.

[𝒵𝒾𝓀✯ @_Gottalovezik]

So basically, companies pay Youtube to show ads and we pay Youtube to not show ads

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

The United States has spent EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS fighting and policing in the Middle East. Thousands of our Great Soldiers have died or been badly wounded. Millions of people have died on the other side. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE.....

[Sama Hoole @SamaHoole]

People ask me why I'm so passionate about cattle.

Here's why.

A cow wakes up every morning, walks to a patch of land covered in inedible fibrous grass, and spends its day converting something completely useless to humans into something extraordinarily useful.

It requires no pesticides. No monoculture. No factory. No lab. No patent.

It takes the sun, the soil, the rain, and a stomach full of microbes, and produces the most bioavailable, nutrient-dense food ever consumed by a human being.

Every gram of beef contains a complete amino acid profile. Zinc. B12. Creatine. Carnosine. Heme iron. Things your brain and muscles quite literally cannot work without.

And we've spent the last 50 years being told this animal is killing us.

The audacity.

I'll take my chances with the creature that built civilisations over the oat milk that was invented in 1994.

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

DSMMA Morning Brief
Date: 02/18/2026
(Please RT, Like and Comment if useful)

EXECUTIVE SNAPSHOT

The current equity setup is best described as headline weakness rather than structural deterioration. As the breadth report notes, participation remains moderately constructive in level terms, but the past week continues to weigh on short-term momentum. Breadth has slipped under 60% on the 20EMA with negative 5-day changes across all horizons, internals have cooled, and RSI breadth has retraced, yet volume remains neutral. In short, the recent softness is not being confirmed by elevated turnover.

C-MAPE continues to resist the equity weakness that has surfaced since October 2025, reinforcing the idea that underlying risk structure remains intact. CCS has reset to Neutral from prior extended bullish readings, washing out excess through time rather than price. While charts like NQ show we are not fully out of the woods, rotation into cyclicals, easing policy, resilient economic data, and cooling inflation make it increasingly difficult to maintain a bearish posture over the next 1–3 months. Near term remains choppy and defensive, but the broader backdrop is stabilizing rather than breaking.

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EQUITY INDICES

C-MAPE has been as stubborn as I’ve ever seen it in refusing to fully acknowledge the equity weakness that’s shown up since October 2025. While that has been frustrating during the software selloff, it’s also a powerful signal that the underlying risk structure remains positive across breadth and macro spreads. CCS has fully reset from extended bullish levels back to Neutral, and time has washed out much of the excess in indices that made the breakout above 7000 difficult.

That said, the charts still matter. When you look at NQ, it’s clear we’re not out of the woods yet. The AI capex scare, combined with the vibe-coding pressure in software, has driven extreme moves beneath the SPX surface. However, with rotation into cyclicals, the Fed still in an easing cycle, the economy holding in, and inflation rolling lower into a positive tax-refund impulse, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to stay bearish over the next 1–3 month timeframe.

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BONDS / RATES / FX

Bonds sold off slightly yesterday after the initial pre-market wash lower in equities. As the day progressed and stock indices rolled over again, that move was not matched by a rotation into bonds. That was a sign the equity weakness was not generating the same level of fear, and in the near term the downside wash in stocks had less chance of holding compared to prior sessions.

Overall, bonds continue to print a series of higher lows and will likely be accumulated on dips. That said, the value proposition at current yield levels, absent clear economic weakness, is becoming less attractive from a risk-reward standpoint. Sustained downside in yields will require confirmation of weakness in the data.

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COMMODITIES

There have been dip buyers in oil at the 62 level for a while now, and that didn’t change yesterday. The 62–66 range remains intact and tradable for now. We did fall out of the uptrending channel and fail on the retest, as discussed in the morning technical overview. That was a decent near-term short, but with 62 being bought so aggressively again, those shorts should have been covered.

Gold has been sold at the short-term trend and has now developed a near-term downtrending channel. That should make any shift in strength easier to identify, as momentum remains to the downside until we see a clear breakout from that channel.

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CRYPTO (BTC)

Yesterday BTC was the weakest asset on the board, though it did recover as some tech names bounced off the lows. It continues to trade like a high-beta risk asset rather than an inflation hedge, participating less on risk-on days and giving up more on risk-off moves. The volatility is frustrating, and while I still hold a core position, I’ve exited my short-term trades for a small profit.

The Alpha portfolio continues to hold BTC since it has not violated the levels Jimmy marked on the charts. I personally run tighter risk controls and tend to exit sooner, while Jimmy is more comfortable holding through deeper swings and often captures larger moves, especially in assets like BTC. I’ll hold a value stock through Armageddon, but I’m a wimp when it comes to crypto.

------------------------------------

CCS:

Equities remain Neutral at 0.54 (Δ+1) with the 5-day near flat (0.07), while Rates are firmly Bull (5.78) and still the dominant regime. USD is Neutral but weak (-0.68) and Metals/Energy are Neutral. Internals are extremely stretched without many true extremes: only 2 overbought (ABBV, AUDUSD) and 1 oversold (CRM), but a massive 21 names sitting at ±7, which is classic “coiled spring” positioning. The most important theme is defensive leadership and financial stress: XLU strengthened to Very Bull and XLF downgraded to Bear, and the macro spread XLF/XLU is deeply negative on ROC and tilt.

Regime Shifts (5-day)

- Upgraded/Strengthened:
- ABBV upgraded to Bull (Score_MA5 2.80→4.00)
- XLU (Utilities) strengthened to Very Bull (Score_MA5 7.40→8.00)
- ZT (2y) upgraded to Bull (Score_MA5 3.80→4.40)
- Softened/Downgraded:
- XLF (Financials) downgraded to Bear (Score_MA5 -2.80→-3.80)

Big Moves (ΔScore ≥ 3)

Limited but telling moves: ES stabilized from deep negative bias, NVDA improved off the lows, and GBPUSD mean reverted lower on bias. This is consistent with a market that is mostly consolidating at extremes rather than trending cleanly.

- ES: ΔScore +3 → Score 0 | Score_BiasMV:-3→0(+3)
- GBPUSD: ΔScore -3 → Score 4 | Score_BiasMV:3→0(-3)
- NVDA: ΔScore +4 → Score 3 | Score_AVWAP:-1→0(+1); Score_WkExt:-1→0(+1); Score_BiasMV:-2→0(+2)

Extremes (score-only)

- Overbought (Score ≥ 8): ABBV, AUDUSD
- Oversold (Score ≤ -8): CRM
- Approaching Extreme (+7): EURUSD, Gold (GC), JNJ, SMH (Semi), SPHB (Hiβ), WMT, XHB (Home), XLB (Materials), XLE (Energy), XLI (Industrials), XLP (Staples), XLU (Utilities), XLV (Health), XOM, ZB (30y), ZF (5y)
- Approaching Extreme (-7): DXY, MA, MSFT, NFLX, V
- Counts: Overbought 2 | Oversold 1 | Approaching (Score = ±7) 21

Bias Check (BiasMV flips)

- ES: -3 → 0
- GBPUSD: 3 → 0
- NVDA: -2 → 0
- Palladium (PA): 0 → 1
- XBI (Bio): -1 → 0

Macro Spreads

This remains decisively defensive: ES/ZN and HYG/IEF still show +3 signals but are rolling over sharply on ROC with negative tilts, consistent with weakening risk momentum. Growth remains a drag (NQ/ES negative signal, negative ROC, negative tilt), but the biggest stress is financials versus utilities (XLF/XLU ROC -9.28% with tilt -5.5). Discretionary versus staples also remains weak with a deeply negative tilt, confirming defensive preference.

- ES/ZN (10y): Signal +3 | 5-day ROC -1.54% | Tilt -3.0
- HYG/IEF: Signal +3 | 5-day ROC -1.28% | Tilt -1.5
- NQ/ES: Signal -1 | 5-day ROC -0.48% | Tilt -1.5
- XLF/XLU: Signal -1 | 5-day ROC -9.28% | Tilt -5.5
- XLI/XLP: Signal -1 | 5-day ROC -0.09% | Tilt 0.0
- XLY/XLP: Signal -1 | 5-day ROC -2.15% | Tilt -5.0

Watchlist (auto-curated)

- Fresh Weekly Breakouts: None
- Fresh Monthly Breakouts: ABBV
- Fresh Weekly Breakdowns: BAC, MA
- Fresh Monthly Breakdowns: None
- Extreme→Mean (left OB/OS): V, XLU (Utilities), XLV (Health)

------------------------------------

Breadth:

SPY breadth remained moderately constructive in level terms, but the last week continues to weigh on participation. Short-term breadth slipped back under 60% and the 5-day change stayed negative across all three horizons, even as 50SMA participation ticked higher on the day. Internals stayed positive but cooled, and RSI breadth retraced sharply over the past week. Volume was essentially neutral (RelVol near 1.0), so the recent breadth softness is not being confirmed by elevated turnover.

- Participation levels stayed above midrange, but momentum remains negative on a 5-day basis. 59.96% of SPY constituents are above their 20EMA (Δ1 -1.41pp; Δ5 -6.84pp, p31), while 63.18% are above the 50SMA (Δ1 +1.21pp; Δ5 -4.02pp, p31). Long-term breadth eased to 63.36% above the 200SMA (Δ1 -1.21pp; Δ5 -3.64pp, p18).
- Internals are still constructive in level, but have cooled. McClellan is +6.57 (Δ5 -5.23, p38) and RSI breadth diff is 46 (Δ5 -44, p22). Thrust was mixed: 20EMA NetPct -1.41% (p44), 50SMA NetPct +1.21% (p59), 200SMA NetPct -1.21% (p25).
- Volume confirmation was neutral. Constituents traded near baseline (RelVol sum 1.00; median 0.99) and SPY ETF RelVol was 1.00. Coverage was 99.6% with 2 missing tickers (MMC, DAY).

--------------------------------

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Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Markets carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.

All opinions are my own. **I am not a professional.** Please trade responsibly

--------------------------------

== Preparation Beats Prediction ==

@DSMMAprivate

--------------------------------

Good luck and God Bless!

- Nik "The Carny" Lentz

[Earth & Beyond @astraterra_]

@curiosityonx She really is built different.

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Nice to see one of the most reowned fund managers in history basically just use technical analysis like a true retard trader

Love it actually