FlyingChu

Sad songs always around me. How to be a smarter person?

[Elite Swing Traders @1ChartMaster]

🗣 In a correcting market, tracking Relative Strength RS is essential because it acts as a filter to identify resilient leadership before the broader indices bottom. While most stocks fall during a correction, those with high RS tend to hold steady or decline significantly less than the market average. This "relative outperformance" suggests that institutional accumulation is occurring despite the prevailing gloom. By focusing on stocks that hold above key moving averages or prior bases while the market makes new lows, you are essentially narrowing your watchlist to the candidates most likely to lead the next bull cycle.

Furthermore, RS serves as a crucial timing mechanism for entering new positions. Historical market leaders often exhibit an RS line making new highs before the stock's actual price does a phenomenon known as a "blue sky" breakout in relative strength. When the market eventually turns and the selling pressure evaporates, these high RS names typically spring higher first and with the most velocity. Monitoring these stocks during a downturn ensures you are positioned in the highest velocity names at the exact moment the market trend shifts back to an uptrend.

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

A man who commits a mistake and doesn’t correct it once he becomes aware of it is making a greater mistake. A man who fails to learn from his mistakes is committing a sin.
—Mark Minervini

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

Linda Raschke’s 4 Trading Principles:

There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach.

The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings.

Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal

Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price

Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax

Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction!

[Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 @KingKong9888]

I see three major opportunities to potentially multiply my capital going forward:

⭕️1. Gold, silver, uranium and miners (now entering the 2nd inning)

⭕️2. Mainland Chinese equities (especially tech) — still in the 1st inning

⭕️3. Properties in Hong Kong and Tier-1 cities in Mainland China (nearing the bottom of the cycle)

🔶This is just my personal take.
The perpetual doomers in Hong Kong’s financial scene will probably mock this outlook. Time will tell who laughs last.

The timing may be perfect because the idiots might still be trashing HK and China when #Gold #Silver and miners top.

Trolls should do the opposite and see what happens.

#Gold #Silver 🔥

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

“ Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria.”

— John Templeton

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

Good rules from my good friend Stan the Man. I just spoke with him the other day. Stan is a national treasure. He calls me his "brother from another mother." If you haven't read his book, it's a classic and a fundamental must for anyone intetested in trend analysis.

[TraderLion @TraderLion]

Most traders obsess over their win rate. Minervini doesn't.

He explains why you can strike out seven out of ten times and still win -- as long as the math on risk-reward works in your favor over hundreds of trades.

The holy grail isn't a setup. It's asymmetry.

[True market Leader @TmarketL]

America Is Trapped In This War —

And There Is No Way Out (Professor Jiang Analysis)

[Danny cheng @dannycheng2022]

It is unusual to see 3 consecutive volatility holes in any index fund, but the Dow Jones is experiencing them now. Buckle up!

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

The market's character is still one of a bear market or cyclical correction; strong open, fade into close and major average living below the 200-day line. Before a reliable bottom can be established, we need to see better price and volume action, including better action from breakout names forming bases.

We are clearly NOT out of the woods yet. The market backdrop is one where sentiment has improved with rising pessimism, but not a full capitulation. The VIX has reached bear warning levels, but remains below true washout extremes. A volatility washout is not required for a bottom, but would add conviction.

Bullish Scenario
--The war ends
--Oil prices recede
--Stagflation concerns ease
--Central banks continuing their easing trajectory

Under this scenario, we would expect:
-A broadening market advance
-Emergence of new leadership from sound bases
-A Follow-Through Day (FTD) on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ confirming institutional buying with little in the way of immediate distribution
-Significant drop in volatility

Bearish Scenario
--The war persists or escalates
--The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted
--Oil prices make new highs
--Stagflation becomes evident in hard economic data

This would likely result in:
-Limited general market rally attempts with most breakout stocks failing
-Lack of follow-through from breakout names
-Further deterioration in breadth and leadership
-Dearth of setups in buyable position
-Continued elevated volatility and distribution
In that case, sentiment would likely need to reach higher levels of pessimism before a durable market bottom could form. In its absence, and end to the factors that are pressuring the market could cause the market to bottom in less dramatic fashion.

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

All I set out to do was make a living from trading. But once I realized that the stock market is the greatest financial opportunity on earth, my goal became much bigger—to build enough wealth so I would never have to worry about money again. I wanted the personal freedom that comes with financial independence, and I achieved that by age 38.
I made my first trade at 18 years old in 1983. However, I didn’t get truly serious about trading until I was 25 in 1990. Still, it took me until I was 28 to fully commit to the discipline necessary to trade at the highest level. From that point on, my life changed—and the rest is history.
When I started, the Dow was trading just a little above 1,000. People were worried and they warned me that the market was too high. Today, the Dow trades over 45,000, and you hear the same worries. The fact is, it's never been a better time to be a stock trader. Those who say you can't succeed have no credibility because they never succeeded themselves. I'm here to tell you you can. The proof that I'm smarter than them comes not from my success, but from my belief in you.
Go get it! You can do it. 😇🙏

[Macro_Lin ｜ 市场观察员 @LinQingV]

所有人都在盯油价，但中东断供真正的灰犀牛是LNG和一堆你没听过的工业原料。

摩根士丹利3月11日发了一份亚洲供应链中断风险追踪，数据非常扎实。核心结论，不要只看油价涨了多少，要看什么东西根本买不到。

先看运价，这才是真实的紧张程度：

1. LNG运价自2/27暴涨+421%
2. 原油油轮（dirty tanker）才+47%
3. ���品油油轮（clean tanker）+74%
4. LPG运价反而跌了-15%

为什么LNG才是真正的痛点？因为它几乎无法替代。原油你还可以从非中东来源调货，运价涨但货能到。LNG不行，全球LNG市场本来就紧平衡，中东占全球出口19%，而且亚洲LNG库存极低：印度6天，台湾10天，新加坡10天，韩国15天。

台湾一次能源中7%靠中东天然气，韩国5%，泰国3%。听起来不大？但天然气是发电燃料和化工原料，一旦断供直接影响工业用电和氨基化肥产能。

然后是被市场完全忽视的非能源断供链：
1. 硫磺 中东占全球出口的45%。硫磺→硫酸→磷酸→磷肥（DAP，中东占全球25%）。这条链断了直接打全球粮食产量。同时影响金���冶炼和铅酸电池。
2. 氦气 中东占全球出口的33%。氦气是半导体光刻冷却和晶圆检测的关键气体，也是MRI的必需品。氦气断供，全球晶圆厂可能被迫降低稼动率。
3. 甲醇（30%）→塑料和溶剂的基础原料→影响下游消费品、纺织、建筑
4. 丁二烯（虽然只占4%但替代源有限）→合成橡胶→轮胎→汽车产业链

已经出现的实际中断信号：

1. 印度配给LNG、上调LPG价格
2. 韩国实施燃油价格上限和税收减免
3. 泰国要求公务员居家办公节能
4. 菲律宾政府部门改四天工作制
5. 印度、中国、泰国限制成品油出口

几条标的联想：
1. 氦气→半导体气体国产替代：华特气体 国内电子特气龙头，覆盖国内90%以上8寸及以上晶圆厂，产品涵盖超纯氦气、光刻气等，客户包括中芯国际、长存、台积电、三星。中东氦气供应占全球33%，一旦中断，海外气体巨头（林德、法液空）供应紧张，反而加速国产替代逻辑。目前华特国内特气市占率不到5%，天花板极高。

2. 硫磺断供→磷肥涨价：云天化、川恒股份 硫磺是磷酸生产的核心原料。中东硫磺出口占全球45%，叠加中东DAP直接出口占全球25%，供应端双重收缩。2月国际磷肥价已破700美元/吨创三年新高。云天化磷矿储量近8亿吨、100%自给，是国内最大磷矿采选企业。硫磺涨价是成本端压力，但全球磷肥供应收缩带来的产品涨价弹性远大于成本端冲击。川恒股份磷矿权益储量5.3亿吨，���利率超80%，同样受益。

3. 甲醇断供→煤化工替代：宝丰能源 中东占全球甲醇出口30%。甲醇是烯烃和塑料的核心原料。宝丰能源是国内煤制烯烃龙头，煤基路线成本约¥5,400/吨 vs 油裂解路线在$110油价下约¥10,200/吨。中东甲醇断供+油价高企=宝丰的成本护城河被急剧拉宽。（此前我已详细建模过宝丰在$110-120油价下的盈利弹性，可回看之前推文）

4. LNG断供→煤电回补+清洁能源：大摩明确指出，亚洲经济体在LNG库存耗尽后将被迫转向煤炭发电或削减工业用气。中长期维度，这进一步强化了光伏/风电对天然气发电的替代逻辑。阳光电源、阿特斯等此前在伊朗系列中已详细分析，不再展开。

大摩的判断：如果地缘紧张持续，非线性效应会逐步显现,从能源价格传导到实物供应中断，再到跨行业的生产停滞。

这不是一个油价涨了所以利空的简单故事。这是一个供应链从能源向工业原料、从价格冲击向实物短缺、从线性传导向非线性断裂演变的过程。

[Wimar.X @DefiWimar]

🚨 THIS IS HOW A REAL BLACK SWAN STARTS!

What people were warning about has now happened.

Israel and the US have launched strikes on Iran.

And if you think this is just another headline that markets will ignore

YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG.

This setup is VERY different from the last symbolic strikes.

This is not a one-off hit.
This is the kind of operation that can last for days, and Reuters reported the US military had already been preparing for a sustained, weeks-long operation against Iran.

That one fact explains a lot.

Because when a conflict stops being a headline and turns into a multi-day operation, the market stops pricing “shock” and starts pricing DURATION.

And duration is where the real damage starts.

There are only a few ways this goes from here, and they are NOT equal.

- LIGHT SHOCK: both sides exchange strikes, both claim victory, and markets slowly stabilize after the first panic.
- HEAVIER SCENARIO: the US gets pulled deeper, the operation drags on, and uncertainty starts hitting oil, shipping, inflation, and military spending all at once.
- WORST CASE: Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, and the whole macro picture changes in hours.

That last one is the REAL danger.

About a fifth of global oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and Reuters has repeatedly flagged that any disruption there can push oil sharply higher.

Now connect the dots.

- If oil spikes, inflation risk comes back FAST.
- If inflation risk comes back, yields can jump.
- If yields jump, liquidity gets low.
And when liquidity gets low, risk gets DUMPED.

That is how the dominoes start falling.

And the market is already nervous.

Reuters reported Brent had already pushed to its highest since late July before the latest escalation, while tanker costs on Middle East routes hit six-year highs as war risk grew.

That is NOT normal.

That is the market telling you the risk premium is already building before the full chain reaction even hits.

So the point is simple.

This can still end as a short shock.

But if it stretches, or if Hormuz gets hit, it becomes a completely different market.

Not a dip.
Not a fake panic.

A REAL regime shift in oil, inflation, and risk.

That is why you have to be ready for different paths, not just the one you hope for.

And yes, moments like this can create OPPORTUNITY.

But first they create CHAOS.

I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.

Follow and turn notifications on.

I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

[Tim Hack @realTimHack]

The 163-year-old silver cup and handle:
Some people say that silver is undergoing a correction or is overbought, but that is complete nonsense.
On the contrary, I am now convinced that silver has not even broken out yet.
If you track the price back to 1800, you will be shocked to discover that a second, larger cup lies ahead.
And since one could argue that the squeeze of the 1980s was exaggerated by Hunt speculation, a staged mega cup has formed, breaking out first at $65 and then again at $100, with the final breakout occurring at around $200, causing a long-term push towards $1000.

[Pillage Capital @PillageCapital]

https://t.co/4X0pjek9s3

[Chicken Genius @chickengenius]

This is how end of US exceptionalism looks like.
Trade war on, yields up.
Trade war off, yields up.
Inflation beat, yields up.
Dollar down, yields up.
Dollar up, yields up.
Risk on, yields up.
Risk off, yields up.

US10Y back up to Trump's breaking point

Good news is bond vol is relatively "low"
Anything near 140 on the move index, you'll again see action from the administration

[茄利略・CUP @KelileoCUP]

Signs of a stock market bottom. source: @fundstrat

[Kevin @atomicalcapital]

The world's most feared investor.

Paul Singer hasn't had a down year since 1977.

His fund returned 14% annually for 46 years, going from managing $1.3 million to $72 billion through activist investing...

Here are 8 of his best investing rules:
(No. 6 is fascinating)

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

And in an instant, YOUR life changed too. There's a lesson in everything. The smartest people are the ones looking the hardest for lessons and opportunities when others see tragedy.