David Daglio

Investor | Public Speaker | Board Member | Views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of anyone I am affiliated with!

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@CartisMyMommy @lowIQ_leftcurve @SoberLook @KASDad @RealAlpineMacro Thanks was trying to understand where the anger was from. Yes my short hand meant that "peace dividend" represents the market's view and why we near all time highs on value and leverage. I didn't mean to imply anyone was in "peace".

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@HoveringBrick @humblebillionz @DarioCpx @grok Do you mean like going to Mars? Not really useful but helpful in other ways ;)

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@robin_j_brooks This appears to be a flow phenom, when some of periphery folks needed like say Turkey needed cash during Iranian crisis they were active sellers of gold for cash (maybe same for treasuries). I don't think the relationship with real rates has changed (famous last words).

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@Riginal_Zen @JavierBlas No idea.

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

Totally agree internet was awesome and changed the world. It probably wouldn't have happened as quickly without massive value destruction in entire supply chain.

Same thing happened with autos.

Same with railroads.

The point I am clumsily making is that if the dream belief peaks, then we have a problem as there is no evidence yet that this idea can produce trillions in value at its current cost structure.

Let's say the cost structure falls by 90 percent through chip designs, deflation in costs of supply chain and productivity. Then it surely works, what then is the value of the Model A when a cheaper Model T is available that is better and cheaper.

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@CumalaHarass @robin_j_brooks I think it's more deliberate than that. They shutdown economy for a year post Covid, hard to argue that high gasoline is a threat to their economic system.

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@humblebillionz @DarioCpx @edzitron @grok Yes. So Ai had a free ride until it drove up power prices, memory prices, turbine prices. Now that prices are higher. Customers questioning the value to cost.

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@TheKramalan @DarioCpx @edzitron Yes, that's it...where do you think they are overbuilding?

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@andyleeck @DarioCpx @edzitron you are right, they weren't and as result we built some stuff with very low returns, that is his key point.

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@humblebillionz @DarioCpx @edzitron @grok PC's were alot cheaper than mainframes from day 1, Trains cheaper than trucks. AI is creating a new market as a result the returns on capital of users matter. The growing pains probably come from this isssue as he highlights.

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

Lets say Ed is half right, meaning that AI will go through growth pains at some point. This means that the bricks and shovels companies, should be locking in contracts, payments, equity as fast as they can. this is especially true of power generation, we clearly need more power, but they need long duration money to be successful.

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

It's clearly a surprise. My thought is that they have interest in playing both sides. This is what all countries are doing.

They are reminding Japan, US and Europe that they have enormous leverage. Which they do.

They have also curried a lot of favor with neighboring countries like Australia that were out of distilled product.

[Ronnie Stoeferle @RonStoeferle]

Interesting: Investors are taking money out of China at a fierce pace!

ht @kevinmuir

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@JavierBlas @opinion They appear to be buying low on most precious materials for past decade, uncanny how well they have "traded" the oil market.

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@INArteCarloDoss Don't forget we will launch spaceships to new planets, harvest rare earths and it will save the US from its deficit in rare earth.

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@SiliconSalvage Kodak traded for 3 x s ebitda. 17 x is not cheap for a no growth business.

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@Callum_Thomas Markets are bought at the peak and sold at the bottom...

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@DowdEdward Yup.

[David Daglio @DaglioDavid]

@BusinessInsider Sometimes it's this obvious. Second derivative of AI has peaked.