Andy Lee

Andy Lee is emcee, available for events hosting..

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@ProfessorPape Oh no!

I still support Trump!

And hopes he gets a third term like Steve Bannon says…

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@DarioCpx @edzitron How did they measure the ROI before the dot com bubble?

Or there weren’t? Just any company name with internet on it, will go crazy crazy upward until the dot com bubble …….

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@ProfessorPape https://t.co/YjCvDWQc9B

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Every step of the way, Iran has played their hand to perfection. Strategic. Methodical. Calculated.

The United States, in contrast, has been ill-prepared, scrambling, and behind the curve.

Nowhere is this more clear than the recent US strikes and hour ago on an Iranian vessel near Kharg Island with a Hellfire missile, followed subsequently by immediate retaliation from Iran on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

What we see taking place here is a United States that knows they are boxed in. They have no military options that would have even a moderate likelihood of success, so now they are hoping... praying, that Iran does not have the capabilities or willingness to resume to war. This is the window the United States hopes to take advantage of.

If Iran, a country that is battered and bruised, yet still standing, is unwilling or incapable of returning to war, the United States gains immediate leverage at the negotiating table. This means that the US can continuously make probing and strategic strikes at Iran without a fear of retaliation.

Iran knows this, and they are responding the same way they have done throughout the entire war. Strategic. Methodical. Calculated.

Throughout this "hot ceasefire", we have seen the United States continually throw jabs at Iran. No haymakers, nothing overly significant, but enough that Iran has to either respond, or allow for them to continue.

And this is exactly what they did when they struck targets in Kuwait and Bahrain.

In response to the early probing strikes from the United States, Iran has responded in a very much "tit for tat" manner. You strike me, I strike you only to the level in which the pain is equated. But here's the problem... the United States can play that game. All day long baby.

So now, we see Iran turning to a slightly different tactic.

150%.

Under this strategy, Iran seeks to respond in a manner that is meant to deter future probing strikes, jabs, from the United States. But this is a tricky line to walk...

Under-escalate, and you guarantee future strikes. Over-escalate, and you could see a full resumption of the war.

But Iran, as they have throughout the war, continues to play as if they have been preparing for this exact scenario for 47 years... because they have.

Instead of over-escalating by closing down the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, or targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, or lashing out at civilian vessels in the Strait, they take the perfectly proportionate step.

The problem now for the United States, is that their probing strategy has now backfired. Iran has shown, by striking these targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, that they are not only WILLING to go back to a hot war... they are capable of doing so EFFECTIVELY.

A move from Washington meant to increase US leverage at the negotiating table by seeing Iran back down, and has produced the exact opposite effects.

Iran is emboldened. They're willing. And most damning of all... they're capable.

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@FurkanGozukara As long as the market buys it, then there is hope for the midterms

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@ProfessorPape https://t.co/DaORpimLMa

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

BREAKING! A VLCC tanker, capable of holding 2M barrels of oil, is loading up at Kharg Island.

Why do we care about this? What is so significant about ONE vessel loading at Kharg?

When the United States' Blockade of Iran was initially implemented a full 50 days ago now, a large aspect of it hinged on a key theory.

Oil. Well. Shut-ins.

It was hypothesized, rather disastrously, that if the United States imposed a blockade of Iran, they would run out of storage capacity within 13 days. Now that was significant because, under this theory, these oil well shut-ins would be catastrophic. Irreversible damage. Iran would never be the same again.

Unfortunately, there was a plethora of flaws with this analysis... first and foremost of which is that Iran shut-in their oil wells in both 2012 and 2019, and did so without notable damage taking place.

Unfortunately, President Trump is not an energy expert, and clearly did not do his due diligence on the validity of said theory.

Speaking to Fox News on April 26th, President Trump stated that:
“Something happens where it just explodes. They say they have only three days left before that happens. When it explodes, you can never rebuild it the way it was.”

Unfortunately for President Trump, and the rest of the United States, now a full 37 days days later... Iran is STILL loading up vessels at Kharg Island.

Okay... okay... so what? Iran's oil infrastructure won't "explode". Big whoop.

Here is why this is so significant to me in particular.

Economic warfare... the blockade... Operation Economic Fury. All of these things are meant to be slow-burners. Or, at least, that is how they SHOULD be utilized. Sanctions, while devastating over the long-term, are only ever a needle-moving tool. They are not the broadsword, they are the dagger. Sharp. Nimble. Painful... but it's not the weapon to use when you want to lop off the head of your opponent.

The same, unfortunately, goes for inflation. Iran's inflation rate for the month of May was reported to be 8% month over month, bringing their total year over year inflation to ~75%. Atrocious, but... this isn't Zimbabwe or East Berlin either.

For the past month, there had been a sliver of hope for the United States and the blockade strategy. 28 days ago, Iran stopped loading vessels at Kharg Island. An oil slick, 70,000 barrels of oil, was spotted near the island. Was Iran dumping oil into the Strait? Had they run out of storage? Did they have major infrastructure damage that wouldn't allow them to load oil onto empty vessels still in the Strait? This could be game changing!

And then, just a few minutes ago, TankerTrackers posted satellite imagery of a VLCC tanker loading 2,000,000 barrels of oil. Any hope the United States now had to force catastrophic shut-ins? Dead. Why? Because Iran still has ~25M barrels of oil that they still have on-vessel storage inside the perimeter of the US blockade line. At the current rate of production for Iran? Combined with available onshore storage? Plus trucking routes into Pakistan? Plus rail lines into China?

We're talking about months until Iran would need to shut-in their oil wells, and even then... it's likely that they could lower production to a level that equates to the combination of domestic consumption and internal refining rates.

The oil well shut-ins were the only arrow the United States had left in their quiver. Military options are dead in the water. Iran has overwhelming escalation dominance options. They can close down the Bab al-Mandeb. They can sever undersea cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz. They can target the hostage tankers inside the Gulf. They can strike at Gulf energy infrastructure that would take years to rebuild.

By Iran showing that they once again have Kharg Island up and running. By proving that they can extend the timeline until even modest damage could "maybe" occur to their oil wells that "maybe" could be enough to bring them to making concessions at the negotiating table...

Iran has effectively ended the US/Iran War.

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@MoranElderLaw @ky_statesman @axios Hush hush….market must keep going up up and up until midterms

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@SusaHatchRedux @ProfessorPape I agree……………

[Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו @netanyahu]

I spoke last night with President @realDonaldTrump about the memorandum of understanding to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and the upcoming negotiations toward a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.

I expressed my deep appreciation to President Trump for his unwavering commitment to Israel’s security, including during Operation Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, when American and Israeli forces fought shoulder to shoulder against the Iranian threat.

President Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger. That means dismantling Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites and removing its enriched nuclear material from its territory.

President Trump also reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself against threats on every front, including Lebanon.

The partnership between us and our two countries has been proven on the battlefield and has never been stronger. 

My policy, like President Trump’s, remains unchanged: Iran will not have nuclear weapons.

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@glicek @Aqui_mi_casa I like this. I mean 1968.

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@longriverCM @KobeissiLetter Listen to Warsh:

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

If you’re wondering why asset prices are getting hit like gold down over 10% and silver down more than 30% in a day then listen to this Kevin Warsh clip.

He’s openly critical of QE and favors a tighter Fed balance sheet which means less liquidity across markets.

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@DogMatixxxx @BankerWeimar The more they try to short, the more likely they will get short squeezed in return!

$HL

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

SCOTUS on tariffs

https://t.co/SiDDNPfz8e

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

SCOTUS on tariffs

[JJ @najso11]

For anyone wanting to monitor the situation for SCOTUS tariff opinion

https://t.co/aybHvYKULa

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@Arden_2210 Answer: 18

10x9=90
9x8=72
8x7=56
7x6=42

6x3=18

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@MWM76 @Barchart You may very well and very likely to be correct!

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@david_eng_mba @mulleteer DCA and hold. This is the way to do Bitcoin

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@BullTheoryio @grok please fact check

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@Polymarket @grok please fact check

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@BRICSinfo @Grok fact check pls

[Andy Lee @andyleeck]

@ChrisCamillo @OdemCraig5642 @DumbMoneyTV Absolutely Sir Camillo