Nessuno

The role of rationality in figuring out what is true is absolutely central, and it is something the Founders and Enlightenment thinkers understood well. One of the ingenious compromises they came up with for dealing with beliefs that exist outside rational examination appears in two of the most brilliant parts of the First Amendment: the Free Exercise Clause, which says you can believe whatever non-falsifiable doctrine you wish, paired with the Establishment Clause, which says you may not mandate belief in your non-falsifiable system for everyone else. But what do we do in a situation where so much of what we call ideology has essentially taken the place of religion, and too many of us—especially in academia, but also outside it—hold non-falsifiable beliefs and wish to impose them on reality? There is no clear way to distinguish those rigid beliefs from any others, because they do not call themselves religion or faith. I know people have proposed something like an Establishment Clause for ideology, but I don’t see how that could possibly work in practice. All future debates would just turn into each side trying to prove that the other guy’s belief system, but not their own, is religion-like ideology. Naturally, their own view would simply be “truth.” I’ve been puzzling over this a lot lately. Truth-seeking simply cannot work in an environment where too many people are afraid to play devil’s advocate, engage in thought experimentation, and take seriously the possibility that they might be wrong on the most important issues. Such an environment simply becomes a dogma factory, where people are motivated to rationalize whatever their tribe wishes to be true.

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Nessuno

@DanSeligson

about 15 hours ago

@Nervana_1 That which is not explicitly permitted is prohibited?

Nessuno

@DanSeligson

about 15 hours ago

@glukianoff @cremieuxrecueil @yzilber After I read his international iq studies, I stopped following him. It’s all conflation,

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@DanSeligson

1 day ago

@PhilWMagness It’s as bad in the social science section of @ScienceMagazine

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DanSeligson retweeted

dan linnaeus

@DanLinnaeus

1 day ago

Parsi is so right. Opaque attribution and plausible deniability are all but gone. The erosion is structural now. Tehran has tethered its fate to Hezbollah even as neither are capable of defending themselves from Israel’s reach. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic’s stratagem leans heavily on Western track 1.5 and II networks weaving narratives aimed at political will in Washington and the US-Israel alliance’s cohesion. One snag. If shooting wars could be won by the deployment of narratives at scale there’d be no shooting. Things are well past that, and as remarkable as 3.1 million impressions and 45,000 likes may be for a single post on social media, the Iranian regime’s influence networks remain unlikely to decisively impinge on Israeli freedom of action or alter US support. Washington, in its national institutional form, is not under Jerusalem’s sway, nor is Trump moved by Netanyahu interests. Israel is the tip of the spear in American global security posture, wielding an opaque strategic doctrine that underwrites CENTCOM’s strategic balance. It possesses the most hardened, technologically capable military and defense industrial complex in the region. No other power stands in the way of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Pakistani influence spreading uncontrollably into the theater. Israel absorbs the diplomatic, reputational and security costs first and the combination of existential stakes and nonnegotiable normative alignment make it dependable under extreme coercive pressure. No other country does more to balance US multitheater load and impose costs on major power competitors eyeing the Pentagon’s simultaneity problem for opportunistic openings. And no other regional power possesses the capability set, incentives and political will to underwrite security for transcontinental geoeconomic corridors vital for strategic diversification from China’s BRI, adjacent corridors and their nodes. Once understood in its proper geostrategic terms, the reason the US-Israel alliance is under intensified attack becomes manifestly clear, and so does its futility. US interests are driving the whole show. Israeli alignment, capability and resolve are Israel’s shield and Washington’s sledge hammer. Parsi’s game of clicks and giggles does little to alter geostrategic realities driving regional, transregional and cross theater dynamics.

DanLinnaeus's tweet photo. Parsi is so right. Opaque attribution and plausible deniability are all but gone. The erosion is structural now. Tehran has tethered its fate to Hezbollah even as neither are capable of defending themselves from Israel’s reach.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic’s stratagem leans heavily on Western track 1.5 and II networks weaving narratives aimed at political will in Washington and the US-Israel alliance’s cohesion.

One snag.

If shooting wars could be won by the deployment of narratives at scale there’d be no shooting. Things are well past that, and as remarkable as 3.1 million impressions and 45,000 likes may be for a single post on social media, the Iranian regime’s influence networks remain unlikely to decisively impinge on Israeli freedom of action or alter US support.

Washington, in its national institutional form, is not under Jerusalem’s sway, nor is Trump moved by Netanyahu interests.

Israel is the tip of the spear in American global security posture, wielding an opaque strategic doctrine that underwrites CENTCOM’s strategic balance. It possesses the most hardened, technologically capable military and defense industrial complex in the region.

No other power stands in the way of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Pakistani influence spreading uncontrollably into the theater. Israel absorbs the diplomatic, reputational and security costs first and the combination of existential stakes and nonnegotiable normative alignment make it dependable under extreme coercive pressure.

No other country does more to balance US multitheater load and impose costs on major power competitors eyeing the Pentagon’s simultaneity problem for opportunistic openings.

And no other regional power possesses the capability set, incentives and political will to underwrite security for transcontinental geoeconomic corridors vital for strategic diversification from China’s BRI, adjacent corridors and their nodes.

Once understood in its proper geostrategic terms, the reason the US-Israel alliance is under intensified attack becomes manifestly clear, and so does its futility.

US interests are driving the whole show. Israeli alignment, capability and resolve are Israel’s shield and Washington’s sledge hammer. Parsi’s game of clicks and giggles does little to alter geostrategic realities driving regional, transregional and cross theater dynamics.

Nessuno

@DanSeligson

1 day ago

@RonaDinur If your goal is to preserve the uni system, then in as much as preserve and conserve are synonyms, you are a conservative aka a capitalist. If your goal is to undermine it, you are enlightened, revolutionary, woke.

DanSeligson retweeted

Amit Segal

@AmitSegal

2 days ago

Smotrich's new thesis for the cabinet today: Flip the Iran-Lebanon equation. Instead of distant tit-for-tat strikes with Tehran, he demands we exact a massive toll on Hezbollah. His math dictates that for every Iranian missile, dozens of buildings in Dahieh should fall. His strategic rationale: A "Silver Plow" operation destroying South Lebanon contact villages is easier and secures Israel's north. Crushing Hezbollah will make them beg Iran to stop, forcing Iranian flexibility in US talks. Trump loves bold, reality-changing initiative. Israel earns major points. Smotrich argues we should save our direct strikes on Iran for a fatal blow to their energy and economy, rather than wasting capabilities on standard "equations." It’s an interesting cost-benefit strategy. Even more interesting will be to see if Netanyahu adopts it—or if he has another trick up his sleeve.

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