Danny Franklin

Co-Founder and CTO of Lightning Rod Labs ( Google SWE
Recreational Basketball Player

[Danny Franklin @DanTheManDev]

Check out my deep dive into the research paper "Attention Is All You Need" (authored by @ashVaswani, @ilblackdragon et al.) that laid the groundwork that eventually lead to ChatGPT!

AI Research Recap: Ok Transformers, You have My Attention https://t.co/pO7ccYDHVW

[Ben Turtel @BTurtel]

Great chatting with @GoRyanEstes on AI for Founders!

[Ben Turtel @BTurtel]

Cool to see our tiny 32B model hanging with top frontier models on the @ProphetArena leaderboard!

ProphetArena is run by @haifengxu0 at UChicago. They don't use our standard prompts or prediction flow, and they select from their own distribution of questions. So when we agreed to participate, we had no idea how our model would perform

Foresight-32B is beating almost every model released before ours was trained, as well as the market baseline. We're doing even better in Sports.

Nice 3rd-party validation of our results!

[Ben Turtel @BTurtel]

Our research on training LLMs to predict the future is now published in @TmlrOrg !

The key result: a 14B parameter model trained with RL on real-world outcomes outperforms frontier models at forecasting, despite being orders of magnitude smaller.

[Ben Turtel @BTurtel]

We ran an AI forecasting competition on live Polymarket questions 🔮

Competitors: o3, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Grok-4, Claude Opus, Qwen3-32B (our base), and Foresight-32B from @lightningrodai.

🥇 Result: Our Foresight-32B wins on every metric—despite being 10–100× smaller.

[Mehul Damani @MehulDamani2]

Really interesting and timely! LLMs need to be uncertainty-aware and make calibrated predictions. Some takeaways -

1. This is not a typical benchmark - the future is uncertain and getting 100% is impossible. It is difficult to tell what the upper-bound is! Maybe models are already close?!

2. There is lot of diversity in how different models make decisions. Curious to see how aggregating the predictions of different models performs -- multi-agent systems might come out on top.

3. There is some cool work training reasoning models for exactly this task: https://t.co/zvNrDpAt2e . Would be great to see this added!

4. Are a model's predictions consistent? If I re-sample the model, do I get vastly different predictions (this will not be good!).

[Ben Turtel @BTurtel]

Major updates to @lightningrodai now live 🚀🚀

⚡ Faster Forecasts: @cerebras for context gathering
📊 Question Types: Continuous variables (prices, quantities, numeric values) & multiple choice
🚀 Enhanced API: New endpoints for general & custom models; HeadlineForecast endpoint streamlines access to the latest predictions
📁 Collections: Share dashboards of related forecasts publicly or within an org
🔔 Alerts: Forecast on autopilot and trigger alerts when probabilities shift

[Danny Franklin @DanTheManDev]

Perplexity's offer to acquire Google Chrome is bold though unlikely to come to fruition. Latest prediction from @lightningrodai

[Lightning Rod Labs @lightningrodai]

Lightning Rod Labs deemed "Awardable" by @DARPA ERIS Marketplace 🚀🚀

[Lightning Rod Labs @lightningrodai]

Lightning Rod Labs has been deemed Awardable on @Tradewind_ai !

[Ben Turtel @BTurtel]

🚨 New preprint from @lightningrodai, in collaboration with @SchoeneggerPhil & @lukebeehewitt 🚨

We trained a compact reasoning model that's state-of-the-art at predicting the future. We massively outperform frontier models at prediction market betting, despite being a fraction of the size (only 14b).

[Ben Turtel @BTurtel]

"Almost every arena of human life relies on good prediction... We’re not very good at these predictions right now, but we could get much, much better soon. We’re only just starting to realize the implications of that kind of shift."

Great article from @dylanmatt featuring @lightningrodai

[Danny Franklin @DanTheManDev]

We're excited to announce some exciting research coming out of Lightning Rod Labs!

[Ben Turtel @BTurtel]

LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future - no human examples or curation required.

Our new paper from @lightningrodai with @DanTheManDev @SchoeneggerPhil explores if AI can improve its forecasts via self-play and real world outcomes.

[Danny Franklin @DanTheManDev]

We fine-tuned an AI to be better at predicting the future and asked it questions about the Super Bowl! Looks like Travis probably isn't going to propose to Taylor Swift after the game. See more here! https://t.co/jpexkG1KBr

[Lightning Rod Labs @lightningrodai]

Who will win Super Bowl LIX? Here's what our AI thinks...
https://t.co/LjjMsECsIb

[Ben Turtel @BTurtel]

I used AI to analyze mental health discussions on Reddit - and found a 400% surge in "AI therapy" posts.

[Pensive AI @pensive_ai]

@natiakourdadze An evidence-based personal trainer for your mind
https://t.co/BxBSiFuRX0

[Danny Franklin @DanTheManDev]

Thrilled to join @CointelegraphAc as a mentor, helping Web3 startups reach new heights! 🚀 Applications are now open—up to $100K in funding and expert mentorship await. Don’t miss this chance! #Web3 #Blockchain #Startups #CTAccelerator

[Cointelegraph Accelerator @CointelegraphAc]

Cointelegraph Accelerator applications are now open! 🚀

Selected startups will receive up to $100K in investment, mentorship, and media exposure. Apply now to be part of the future of blockchain.

https://t.co/Qd8vsJhZnS

[Kazm @kazmapp]

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[Emeka Victor @Mekulavick]

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