Daniil Gorbatenko

LIbertarian, economist, tech and anti-aging enthusiast, Liverpool FC fan; opinions expressed here are my own

[Massimo Falcioni @falcions85]

29 giugno.

2000 - 2026. Di padre in figlio.

Rigori tra l'altro identici.

Incredibile.

[Ramez Naam @ramez]

A year ago, one of my greatest AI fears was hyper-persuasion, manipulation, and greater polarization of the populace.

Instead, I'm now cautiously optimistic that AI will improve our public discourse slightly to moderately.

What changed?
1. Observing that we're not supply-constrained on fake news, outrage, or polarizing content. We're demand constrained.

2. Seeing how Grok is actually used on twitter, and how it improves the factuality of the platform.

3. Multiple studies and analysis showing how essentially all LLMs combat conspiracy theories and pull people away from extremes.

Social media, traditional media (TV news), and the incentives for both have already damaged us tremendously by pushing outrage and distorting our views of reality and of 'the other side'. There will be attempts to do this with AI. Yet what I'm seeing right now is that it's actually going in the opposite direction, towards truth and fact based reality, and away from conspiracy theories and extremism.

[Tapio Erola 🇫🇮 @MirrorSharder]

Three men in prison in Soviet Russia.
The first man says, "I was five minutes late to work, so I was arrested for sabotaging Soviet productivity."
The second man says, "I was five minutes early so I was arrested for espionage, spying on Russian industrial secrets."
The third man says, "I was exactly on time to work, so I was arrested for owning a foreign made watch."

[Daniil Gorbatenko @Daniilgor]

Just discovered to my great surprise that ChatGPT 5.5 Thinking is a pretty lousy chess player. I played until I took its queen quite easily. And I'm not chess master.

I expected ChatGPT to have become much better at chess since the o3 days but not really.

[Romain Lacombe @rlacombe]

Our World In Data has the receipts, as always. Anti-AC obscurantism kills.

[Daniil Gorbatenko @Daniilgor]

A few thoughts on Malta.

- The place is clearly dynamic and growing. Lots of new buildings, it has clearly become richer since I first visited in 2019, which can't be said about many other places in Western Europe, and GDP figures confirm that.

And there is AC everywhere 😅

- The vibe is unashamedly globalist and it's awesome, sorry, nativists.

- Unfortunately, small societies like Malta don't matter much in the grand scheme of things. Their advancements can always be dismissed by invoking tax evasion, regulatory arbitrage and mere immaterial services stuff.

But of course, such societies don't have the scale to build massive path-breaking industries like AI or high value added manufacturing.

On a personal note, I probably couldn't reside in Malta as it's too small. Living here would also be dangerous for my health because of ultra-cheap pastizzi and relatively cheap local beer.

[Daniil Gorbatenko @Daniilgor]

Nice to see this

[Peter Harrell @petereharrell]

Important lawsuit against the Trump Administration's export controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 model. I find the arguments in the complaint persuasive and add a few additional points as well.

1. The complaint makes several arguments. First, it argues that Commerce has not in fact taken the steps that would be required to export control Fable 5. For example, the Commerce Department has not in fact controlled the export of AI models, since it rescinded the Biden Administration's AI export controls in May 2025, and thus the "is informed" letter that Commerce sent Anthropic exceeds the ambit of what is actually controlled. Second, it argues (and I agree) that use of a model in the United States (e.g., on Anthropic's servers in the US) is not an export of the underlying AI software ("technology" or "source code")--there may be an export of the output of an AI model (e.g., a memo, or an app created by AI), but the AI software itself is staying in the US and not being exported. Third, insofar as Commerce would argue that it is imposing "interim controls" on an emerging technology, Commerce has failed to follow the procedural steps required to identify such a technology.

2. The complaint also argues that the controls would not be allowed under IEEPA, in case the Administration tries to invoke IEEPA as an alternative basis for the controls. Here, it basically argues (a) the Administration has not, in fact, invoked IEEPA (an obvious argument), and (b) that the type of output Fable 5 creates, at least in the context of the company bringing the suit (a legal tech firm), fall within IEEPA's exceptions for "information and informational materials." (I strongly agree with the plaintiff's IEEPA arguments).

3. The complaint invokes the "major questions doctrine," a big part of the February SCOTUS decision overturning Trump's IEEPA tariffs, arguing that if the Executive Branch wants to start regulating AI--clearly, the actual intent of the export controls--Congress needs to clearly authorize it to do so.

4. This lawsuit is important both for itself, and also more broadly for companies with an interest in the possible limits to a US government "kill switch"--the ability of the US government to turn off tech and software services for foreign users (a topic that I heard a lot about in Europe on a recent trip). My own view is that while the US government does have significant legal authority to stop US tech companies from providing products and services to foreign users, there are limits to that "kill switch," many of which are reflected in the complaint.

5. For example, the fact IEEPA cannot be used to prohibit the transfer of information or informational materials means that a US company could transfer data and expressive material to a foreign company, even if the US government could prevent the US company from providing ongoing commercial services. (E.g., if the U.S. government sanctioned a European company, a US IT services company could at least give that European company its own past data, even if the US company had to stop providing ongoing business software services). When it comes to export controls, the government can only control the *actual export* of covered software and technology, and the government has to follow procedural steps.

6. Looking forward to seeing how this plays out in the courts...

[Philippe Lemoine @phl43]

The objectively correct position on the US vs. Europe debate with respect to AC is that the European hostility toward AC is completely irrational and motivated by degrowth-adjacent bullshit, but Americans need to learn that you don't have to crank up AC so much that you freeze your balls off in the middle of summer and that drinking at a terrace is more pleasant than staying inside when the weather is beautiful outside even if it's a bit hot.

[Ryan Maue @RyanWeather]

Way too many people are innumerate

Indoor air conditioning waste heat dumped to street barely registers within the "urban heat island"

Imagine worrying about adding 1°F or 2°F to outside ambient environment -- when thermometer reads 110°F and you're melting indoors 🌡️

[Daniil Gorbatenko @Daniilgor]

Source https://t.co/1ZuibiHPos

[Daniil Gorbatenko @Daniilgor]

The way everything is deeply connected in biology is just insane

[Florian Ederer @florianederer]

Until the 1970s Algeria was the world's largest wine exporter.

[Daniil Gorbatenko @Daniilgor]

Source https://t.co/3n9oycXNwW

[Daniil Gorbatenko @Daniilgor]

"In the journal Cell, a team of >80 researchers from 4 continents reported on the discovery of a 14-protein blood test which paved the way for predicting and preventing lung cancer more than 5 years before it would be diagnosed.

[...] Back in 2017, there was publication of CANTOS, a large randomized clinical trial that assessed an anti-inflammatory medication (canakinumab, an interleukin-1β antibody) in more than 10,000 participants with prior heart attack for reduction of subsequent cardiovascular events. While the results were not compelling for this cardiovascular indication (small benefit and a risk of fatal infections), there was an unexpected outcome of reduction of lung cancer and fatal lung cancer during 5 year follow-up, both with a dose-response (Figure below for lung cancer incidence). At the highest dose of the drug, there was nearly an 80% reduction of fatal lung cancer.

[...] We would have assumed the 14-proteins were coming from the cancer cells, but they weren’t. They were, challenging dogma, an indirect siren emitted from healthy cells, sensing the stress in cells transitioning to a precancerous state. Plus the confirmation of a double hit—particulate matter and an EGFR mutation—that led to the highest production of the 14 proteins. Imagine if we could identify a group of proteins that were predictive of each cancer 5+ years in advance and understand precisely the basis of the protein cluster! That’s where this is ultimately headed. And we’re just talking about the biomarker here.

Imagine if we could identify a group of proteins that were predictive of each cancer 5+ years in advance and understand precisely the basis of the protein cluster! That’s where this is ultimately headed. And we’re just talking about the biomarker here.

The other dimension of this landmark study stemmed from serendipity. CANTOS was a trial directed at reducing heart disease, a secondary prevention for people who already had a heart attack. But the researchers backed into the finding of reduced lung cancer and fatal lung cancer with the innate immunity intervention of blocking interleukin-1β. While interesting, there was no way to practically take that to the clinic with a number needed to treat (NNT) exceeding 1,000 (to prevent 1 lung cancer) and the hazard of the antibody for serious infections. But CANTOS took the 14-protein biomarker story to a new level, by testing whether the antibody would work in the high risk group. And it did, lowering the NNT to 50 (figure below, made with Claude) in the 20% of participants who had the biomarkers. That’s a remarkable low number of people needed to treat to prevent one deadly cancer."

[Kevin Bankston @KevinBankston]

The idea that Fable is still blocked because @k8em0 has pink hair and is explciit about pronouns is absolutely maddening, completely lawless, and absolutely on brand for this clown car of an administration

[Michael Munger 🏖️🔪👨‍🍳 @mungowitz]

That is hilarious, actually.

Econs of the Left, 1976: "Socialism is better than Capitalism for Growth!"

Econs of the Left, 2026: "Socialism is bad for growth, and that's good!"

[Daniil Gorbatenko @Daniilgor]

How I'd characterize what the Trump Admin does on a systematic basis in three words: ancien régime thuggery.

[Daniil Gorbatenko @Daniilgor]

Anthropic certainly brought it upon themselves with their scaremongering hype of Mythos and general messaging but it's amazing how the Trump Admin's solution is always some anti-foreign nonsense.

[Andrew Jonelis @AndrewJonelis]

"economists*" who have "done the maths" vs economists who have done the math.

[Daniil Gorbatenko @Daniilgor]

This could be a watershed moment in human history. Partial reprogramming started being tested in glaucoma but its potential goes way beyond that.

"Test time has arrived: the first person has been treated in a highly anticipated gene-therapy trial that aims to coax aged cells to take on a younger identity.

The clinical trial is testing an innovative technique that involves turning on three genes that can ‘partially reprogram’ old cells, allowing them to behave as if they were young again. Some scientists argue that partial reprogramming could rejuvenate old organs. But this trial will test the activation of these three genes as an approach for treating disease — in this case, a form of glaucoma, a condition that can cause blindness.

The hope is that the proteins encoded by the genes will enable regeneration of neurons in the optic nerve, which connects the eye to the brain and is damaged in people with glaucoma. These neurons are not normally capable of regeneration. The company sponsoring the trial, Life Biosciences in Boston, Massachusetts, announced today that it had treated its first participant."