12 hours later, HYPE is up 15% from $50.
The volume profile highlights my previous argument almost perfectly: green shows volume traded during the recent move, compared to total auctioned volume at each price level.
Relatively little HYPE is actually changing hands at these new levels. The violence of the move is coming from the imbalance between aggressive buyers (DATs, ETFs, chasers) and a seller base that already had months to distribute in the prior range.
However, until sellers find a material reason to step in, the path of least resistance remains higher. Higher prices can become reflexive: they validate existing holders, reduce the urgency to sell, and force sidelined buyers to chase.
For example: if you are an existing holder, has this recent move made you more or less likely to sell versus when HYPE was at range lows? If you are sidelined, has this move made you more or less likely to enter?
Counterintuitively, despite higher prices meaning higher multiples, the answer is likely that it increased your desire to hold and participate. That is ultimately why we buy assets: for them to go up.
So where is the level where long-term holders finally sell? My bias is much higher.