🚨 Amongst all of the Arsenal fan hysteria, it's really important to take a step back and assess the reality of the situation.
Arsenal have two TOP players for every single position.
The club tried to sign some stardust in attack. The ambition was there for everyone to see.
Alright, Berta definitely could have handled things better because the club missed out on Rogers despite him wanting to join because of the relaxed manner in which he approached the deal, Vinicius used the club to get a better contract at Madrid (in all likelihood), Barcola never truly considered Arsenal because they didn't make him feel wanted after the public Vinicius saga with Liverpool getting ahead in the meantime, and Alvarez was a lost cause from day one because he only wanted Barca.
The club were FINALLY willing to spend big bucks on a forward, but the sporting director did not deliver. That is the reality.
But will that derail Arsenal's season?
Certainly not.
Just look at the squad… The depth is nothing short of elite in every single area (apart from Kepa behind Raya).
The Konsa signing ensures the level stays the same without Saliba.
The Bruno Guimarães signing along with Lewis-Skelly being used in midfield means Zubimendi and Rice can stay fresh throughout the entire season.
The depth is just as good elsewhere, and I also don't buy the notion that Arsenal cannot level up in attack.
We have to remember that Havertz, Ødegaard, Merino, Calafiori, and Saka were injured for LARGE periods last season.
Havertz missed 41 games.
Ødegaard missed 30.
Merino missed 28.
Calafiori missed 16.
Saka missed 15.
These are all CRUCIAL players for Arsenal.
It meant that Eze almost exclusively had to play in the #10 when he is better on the left and Trossard + Martinelli were required to play out wide even though Arsenal are better with Eze's creative qualities on the left. Some may disagree with that, but the club have shifted Trossard and Martinelli on for good reason. We also saw how devastating Eze can be against Villa in just ONE HALF of football…
The attacking dynamics were never optimal last season because of that, but we can also say the same about the midfield dynamics.
Zubimendi was the #6 with Rice in the #8. Both are obviously exceptional players, but Rice is better in the #6. Arsenal's dynamism went up a level once Lewis-Skelly was shifted into midfield with Rice in the #6. Those dynamics now remain as Arsenal primarily attack in a 3-1-3-3 / 3-1-6 with both fullbacks high and the #6 + #8 managing the build-up alongside the centre backs. That means the team have more bodies high but also players in more suitable roles AND with better depth behind them…
Elsewhere, Tzolis is a level above Martinelli + Trossard, Dowman is another year advanced in his development, and it is the second season of Mosquera, Hincapié, Zubimendi, Madueke, and Gyökeres who are more acclimatised now.
People keep talking about how Arsenal have sold lots of forwards and only brought in one, but they moved on Trossard, Martinelli, Jesus, Nwaneri, Vieira, and Nelson. Only two of which were reliable first team players last season (Trossard + Martinelli) and as useful as they were, they were the biggest problem area in Arsenal's squad.
Martinelli had his worst year on record and Trossard had a 26-game goal drought. Both were and are a level below of where Arsenal are at.
And, most importantly, the only reason that they were used so much is because Havertz, Ødegaard, and Merino missed half of the season each so Eze was often forced to play inside and not wide left. Arteta only had the luxury to play Eze out there at the business end of the season (like he did versus City away).
People also criticise Gyökeres and Madueke a lot but we have to remember that they suffered because of the suboptimal dynamics. The left wing was a level below where it needed to be and although Eze can play in the right-sided #10 it cramps his space to do what he does best (dribble and pass). He was reduced to a box-crashing role (see Spurs at home).
Combine that with Rice in the #8 and Calafiori often not being available at left back and the dynamics were suboptimal from back to front. It was why every game felt like a slog.
Now?
That's not the case.
Arsenal are more balanced in midfield, Eze will be used off the left, and it is up to Arteta to get the dynamics right with who he picks in the #10.
But, overall, Arsenal are in a much better position than last season. The same season they won the Premier League title. And the competition is not as strong this year, either.
Alright, it would have been UNBELIEVABLE to add a Rogers, a Barcola, or an Alvarez to this group, but so be it.
That's life. You cannot get everything you want all the time.
Plus, Arteta and Arsenal are in a position to decide to wait. They don't have to panic buy someone like Fofana who is raw and not ready for the elites yet.
I, for one, expect Arsenal to retain their Premier League title.
Partly because they have an elite manager, but also because they have an elite squad, better than every other Premier League team.
Then, in the future, Arsenal will be in a position to sign a superstar attacker on TOP of this already incredible group which is primed to win NOW.
A dynasty remains on the cards, my friends.
Be calm, be grateful, soak it in, and enjoy the season ahead ✌️
Few things to monitor after GW1
- striker points & does that strengthen the 451 plan post WC?
- BPS & the types of players getting max bonus
- my GW1 outcome & are goals overrated?
All this & more in this week’s pod
https://t.co/OX6GF1VQD0
Defenders 4-4.5mln options
Lets start with more expensive ones.
1) Shaw - great fixes, but for start season Maguire look better despite the fact that Harry cost 0,5 more. If any LB come, he should be starter.
2) Hume/De Cuyper - I tag them together because they are defenders who could start the season as wingers. IMO Hume is more certain to play, but De Cuyper looks better on wing.
SUN/BRI others option: Reinildo/Kadioglu.
3) Ajer/Kayode - Ajer should be monster to gain DC points with SvnB absence. Kayode in other way can give assist, for example from throw-in😅 good fixes, great preseason.
4) Rodon - next player, who can gains a lot of DC points. Trafford should help to get more CS. Moreover, Leeds look great in their home matches, and they have 3/5 H matches.
Others option from LEE: Justin
5) Aina - example like Shaw-Maguire. We are have here better option for 5mln (Neco), but if u dont have budget, u can look for that option. The question is whether Glasner will quickly improve the game of the entire NF.
6) Cash - AV option at the end. Why? Large rotation of players, Konsa leaving, and we don't know how Emery will arrange it. But he should be starter with transfer Digne to PSG and cost only 4.5.
Ok, what can I add to that? Traps for 4.5mln:
• Konsa - there's a 99% he won't jump into the squad right now after the transfer. Mosquera is safe for now, but with time that should change. Just wait.
• Hato - Some will want to go cheap for Chelsea's defence. However, in my opinion, we'll have to wait here. Especially it's already the best calendar since GW4.
• Heaven - maybe he could be starter for start of the season, but its risky and I would recommend go for Shaw. At least until there is a new LB.
===================
Ok, briefly a few words about 4mln options:
First, be careful about % possessions.
Why? There will be sales after BB1/BB2.
Higher %poss = faster price drops.
So Thomas is more safer option than Van Ewijk. With Kitching we need be careful, in the last match against Monaco he was on the bench.
The same in IPS, O'Shea or Davis are better options than Diop. O'Shea can probably also hit more DC, so possibly gain DC points for 10 actions.
Additionally, there is a high probability O'Nien should start for SUN with injury problems of Alderete and Mukiele.
If there was information about him at the conference, it would be an interesting option for BB1.
#FPL #FPLcommunity #GW1
1️⃣ Arsenal
🥇Gabriel
🥈Tzolis
Differential ⭐️: Ø ( on pen if both Saka and GYO off )
🍀Pick the defense & Double def is fine
⚠️Saka will play 30-60 mins, difficult bet, Low xmins but he may score
🍀Calafiori has a great upside he can score but he might be hocked pre 60
🌐 Chips and drafts
I've shared my thoughts on chip strategies for this season over on @TheFantasyTool_ along with example drafts.
It's free to read.
I will also be sharing my team before the deadline each gameweek throughout the season.
https://t.co/3kPqrZ8O7y
🚨 CALLING ALL FPL MANAGERS 🚨
Can you beat an AI over 38 Gameweeks? 🤖⚔️🧠
We're running a season-long experiment:
🤖 ChatGPT manages ONE FPL team
📊 Every decision follows our FPL Agent Framework
🎯 AI target: TOP 100K
📝 Every prediction recorded BEFORE the deadline
❌ No hindsight
❌ No hiding bad calls
🔄 The model learns as the season progresses
But an AI vs itself isn't much of an experiment…
So we're opening the challenge to YOU. 👇
🏆 AI vs FPL Community
🔑 League Code: o7wjw3
The league is EMPTY right now.
That means the first managers joining aren't just participants…
You're the FOUNDING CHALLENGERS. 👀
38 GWs.
Human intuition vs AI decision-making.
One leaderboard.
Think you can beat the machine?
JOIN → reply with your team name → bookmark this post.
Let's see who's on top after GW38. 🏆
🔑 o7wjw3
Tag an FPL manager who thinks they can beat the AI 👇
#FPL #FPLCommunity
So I watched 75 preseason matches, and here's everything I noted from an FPL perspective.
Arsenal:
- Tzolis, despite excellent defensive support for Calafiori, showed versatility in how to attack different types of defenders, a great sense of timing for passing behind, and great numbers of attacking returns as a result. Incredible set-piece delivery. It was especially noticeable that he is now an option for receiving a short throw-ins, despite the fact that long throw-ins from Calafiori have been practiced all season.
- Gabriel is dominant as a set-piece receiver. The most common routine used was where Arsenal players overload tightly at the far post, literally pressed against each other, and when the ball is played they quickly run in different directions, with Gabriel remaining to receive it.
- Calafiori is absolutely elite at interpreting space. He is where he needs to be at the right time and is often used to distract the opponent, so there will be many goals where his position will be incredibly high, but where he will be left completely without the ball.
- Bruno is a bonus for both Arsenal attackers and defenders. More risky directness means more attacking opportunities, but it also means more transitional moments and, accordingly, a few more DEFCONs.
Aston Villa:
- 3-2-5 in possession will give more variety than "give the ball to Rogers". The opposition often struggled to find a reference point for the fifth player in the first line. It would make it harder to find FPL options based on open play.
- Buendia finally moved into his favourite #10 role, and it instantly translated into attacking returns. In general, his big-chance involvement was one of the best among all players in preseason. Very small sample size, but already a lot more box entries from him than usual.
-Bogarde had one of the highest DEFCON numbers for midfielders, and Maatsen gets into the top 10 as well, just keep in mind Villa's signing of Ruggeri.
- Players I will target against Villa are the ones who will most likely participate in quick diagonals to exploit the high line.
- Ironically, after losing their set-piece coach, Villa started to concede a lot from set pieces. Absolute disorganisation and, what's worse, a lot of initial duels and clearances falling directly to the opponent. So don't be surprised if set-piece takers have a lot of pre-assists instead of assists against Aston Villa.
Bournemouth:
- Bournemouth participated in the highest-intensity matches. DEFCON was all over the place, but there were low numbers from the usual suspects. Instead, a lot more defensive actions came from the wing-backs.
- Truffert was easily the most advanced defender out of all teams. Creating for teammates but, most importantly, creating for himself even more. Biggest amount of box arrivals, DEFCONs and shots. Full-package defender.
- Disappointing corner delivery from Scott and Tavernier, but nice indirect free kicks. Expecting both to dominate big-chance involvement.
- Categorically not expecting any DC potential from Antonio Silva. The guy is just too good in possession and tends to prioritise intended passes in aerial duels, even when clearing the ball would be the easier option. In Portugal, too big a portion of his defensive actions came from the danger created by his own teammates.
Brentford:
- Only two teams in Europe's big five leagues relied more heavily on set pieces to generate shots. They also had some really nice set-piece routines in preseason. As funny as it sounds, I wouldn't pick said set-piece takers, because most of the routines are not direct and too much variability hurts their predictive value in that sense.
- Sangare is a main talking point for a good reason. I highly expect his DEFCON numbers to translate to the PL, not only because the number of defensive actions will naturally inflate, but also because he plays for one of the most direct teams in the league. Just like Elliot Anderson, he doesn't need to make a lot of defensive actions to hit the threshold as long as he progresses the ball forward.
Chelsea:
- Caicedo unsurprisingly finished in the top3 for DEFCONs in preseason, and with the way Alonso plays, midfielders will get more defensive actions while defenders will get less. Still, it took him 6-7 months at Leverkusen to get to this point, so I'm not expecting a quick decrease.
- Palestra picked some nice positions, but he wasn't that good on the ball. I'm considering him a pretty safe option, as with Lacroix in the squad Alonso has no choice but to play with three in defence.
- Joao Pedro looks central to everything, and it's important that we're seeing different types of goals rather than simply a player converting a few preseason chances.
- Palmer is still the main creative hub. Preseason wasn't spectacular, but the structural changes should give more hope than the preseason output.
- Biggest takeaways from an FPL perspective are transition vulnerability, occasional defensive disorganisation, large spaces behind the wide players and struggling to break down a settled block.
Coventry:
- The most DEFCON-friendly team, with the weakest right wing. Van Ewijk was overcommitting a lot, and not successfully. He also invert during the first phase and, despite dominant phases of the game, looked fairly conservative. Expected him to make some aggressive runs once Coventry establish possession, but that wasn't happening.
- Big difference between Thomas and Amenda in how they deal with pressure, and that should be a big difference in their DEFCONs as well. Thomas steps forward to engage an attacker or follow movement into midfield, which can leave space behind him. That can be particularly dangerous because Coventry's structure can already have van Ewijk moving into unusual positions.
- Yirenkyi is extremely direct after winning duels, which helps him pick up extra DEFCONs. That's Anderson/Sangare territory.
- Grimes with very good set-piece delivery. Small chance he might be on pens as well.
- Tchaouna is direct but wasteful, most likely to be the most isolated player on counters.
Palace:
- The biggest problem is what happens immediately after Palace lose the ball. The rest-defence behind the wing-backs isn't consistently ready for the moment Palace lose possession.
- Very aggressive defensive structure + naturally aggressive CBs is a DEFCON heaven. Disconnected two-man midfield inflates those numbers as well, but as you can imagine, that's not very good for clean sheets. High defensive line is also vulnerable when the press doesn't arrive, with too much grass behind the defenders, and they don't have Lacroix anymore. Good luck to No Haaland teams, what can I say.
Everton:
- Unusually composed in the first preseason matches, but rolled back to the good old Everton in the last games. A lot of DEFCONs, but proportionally spread among all the players. Röhl and Mykolenko ended up being the biggest hitters.
- Röhl has been used both out of position and in a reverse out-of-position role throughout preseason, and even in a more advanced role he still produced strong DEFCON numbers. Not looking like he's going to get regular minutes, but that's definitely the one to monitor because he could be this season's Mats Wieffer.
- Midfield is stacked, genuinely good games from pretty much everyone. KDH with more box arrivals than usual.
- Keane is the primary target on set pieces.
- Barry improved, much better both in large spaces and tight areas. From an FPL perspective, I like that he shoots more, even from unbalanced body positions.
-Mykolenko with some horrendous highlights, but he played an important role in the last Everton goal. Was struggling in the George-KDH triangle, but generally showed why Everton is a top-five team by limiting the threat from RWs.
- Armstrong, although wasteful at times, impressed a lot, and his inswingers were great.
- Ndiaye is much more comfortable on the left, but with the way George plays, I'm not sure he'll get as many minutes on the left as I want him to.
Fulham:
- Iwobi looks like one of the three reasons why they might not get relegated. Biggest number of penetrating passes into the box, even when playing in a double pivot, on set pieces and potentially on penalties as well. Possibly the best corners I've seen this preseason, each time finding his target.
- The other two reasons are Palacios and Garcia. Sadly, I'm not as confident in Garcia as an FPL option. Both him and Palacios are doing way too much on and off the ball, very good for Fulham but very bad for an attacker that you want to pick.
- Individual quality in defence is horrendous. Bassey had the biggest amount of dangerous ball losses, basically helping the opponent create chances. Defenders stretch as wide as possible to create more build-up options, but when possession is lost, it's a tragedy.
Ipswich:
-One of the most stubborn and straightforward teams, and it helps to identify their best assets. In possession, the 3-4-2-1 transforms into a front five: Davies – Maeda – Emersonn – Walle Egeli – Fatawu.
- Leif Davis is the key figure on the left flank. In a back three, he has the license to push up almost into the attacking line. His freedom to attack creates a downside to the team's setup: a wide-open corridor behind him whenever possession is lost. That's why I'm expecting Florentino's DEFCON potential to be even higher this season.
- Fatawu's role depends on the opponent. Against Rayo, he played as a wing-back. From that position, he has more ground to cover to reach the goal after winning the ball, so against an evenly matched team, it makes more sense to play him higher up the pitch. In a match where Ipswich spend long periods defending, O'Neil might drop him into a back five or position another player behind him. If you want a player with more box arrivals, it would be Maeda.
- Jacob Greaves is the left-sided centre-back responsible for covering the space vacated by the high-pushing Davies. He's absolutely essential, and I expect him to get the most minutes out of all the defenders. O'Shea can play on the right or in the centre of a back three and organise the defensive line. Diop is more accustomed to defending large spaces and adds height for aerial duels.
Leeds:
- I'm not sure about the repetitiveness of bicycle kicks, but I'm pretty sure about the repetitiveness of defensive actions from Tarik Muharemovic, the best DC hitter during preseason.
- Joe Rodon has repeatedly been advancing down the right from centre-back. It's not simply that he's carrying the ball forward occasionally. There is a clear tactical pattern where, when Leeds have possession, Rodon can become the right-sided progressive player, moving much higher than you'd expect from a conventional centre-back.
- Stach provides the physical coverage that allows the defenders to move more, and I'm not a fan of it from an FPL perspective. Also, it was a really nice preseason from the whole midfield, so I wouldn't even try projecting their minutes.
- Ampadu is probably the safest, and he ended up being the highest DEFCON contributor among midfielders.
- Longstaff has been surprisingly interesting, with an unusually good amount of box arrivals and nice set-piece involvement.
-Each of the defenders is a nice option for different reasons, so I'd probably pick them based on the positional vulnerability index short term.
- Wilson is comfortable receiving between the lines and generally drops into midfield a lot to help with the build-up. Still manages to find some nice shooting positions, just not as attacking as last season.
- Early vertical balls are inflating DCL's potential. Them becoming way too direct can become their main weakness, but that's also the biggest positive for DCL owners.
Liverpool:
- A lot of questions about DEFCON. I'm expecting numbers to stay big but not really increase because we have to understand that Liverpool already produced a very similar amount of transitional defensive touches last season, and it's not like this number will get ridiculously bigger under Iraola. Araujo is not as proactive as he's been described, but his attacking potential is definitely underrated.
- When Liverpool's midfield/pressing structure isn't functioning, Isak can become quite isolated, and I don't really like it.
- Iraola has increasingly used Wirtz as a genuine No. 10, rather than trying to force him into a wider role, but Mac Allister's availability could start a huge domino effect, so it's simply too hard for me to speculate about the roles of players like Szobo and Wirtz.
Man United:
- Andrey Santos finished preseason with some strong DEFCON numbers and showed some nice ability to find passes between the lines, but his most underrated weapon could be his role as a set-piece receiver. At Strasbourg, this was one of his biggest strengths, but it's rarely talked about. He seems to thrive in unconventional routines and has a habit of finding himself unmarked. With Bruno taking the set pieces and United relying heavily on them, Santos could be a real hidden gem at his price.
- Maguire was unusually uncomfortable in possession, which is obviously good news for his DEFCON potential. He also offers something from set pieces, but De Ligt is one to keep an eye on.
- Dorgu was wasteful again. The work rate is excellent, but the timing of his attacking runs still doesn't look quite right.
- Mbeumo looked very comfortable operating through the middle, and I actually think this could make him even more appealing in fixtures where United are happy to give up possession and attack in transition.
Nottingham Forest:
- Williams is one of the main talking points. Very attacking and involved on corners. I wouldn't draw a direct comparison with Munoz, though. Rather than both wing-backs simply bombing forward, Glasner's Forest are showing a clear right-sided structural overload, with Aina and the midfielders helping to create control and attract pressure before progressing towards the left. The left side is much more aggressive, with Neco pushed very high and combining with Gibbs-White and the forwards. It creates a strong attacking triangle on that side, but also leaves significant space behind Neco when Forest lose possession. His flexibility is a bit of a problem.
- You can clearly see that Glasner wants multiple players arriving in dangerous areas. Gibbs-White rotates with both Neco and the striker, consistently finding some good positions. Ndoye provides the width and vertical threat on the right, while Aina remains slightly more conservative.
- Jesus' situation is closer to Garcia's at Fulham, especially in the latest matches.
- I'm also expecting Milenkovic to maintain a similar DEFCON potential, with Diomande rarely hitting the threshold.
Sunderland:
- A lot of territorial dominance from Ballard, along with plenty of progressive carries and dribbling. It's not that he's extremely attacking, but more that Sunderland can cause problems when the opposition doesn't press them. His defensive involvement was fairly low, with most of his defensive touches coming from set pieces. He wasn't as involved in dead-ball situations as I'd hoped, with Reinildo looking like the main set-piece threat.
- Problems building up from the back make Enzo Le Fee less appealing, as he often has to drop deep to help with ball progression.
- I quite like Talbi and Angulo on the wings. They looked a lot better and the contrast with what Sunderland were trying to do out wide in the first matches.
Spurs:
- The main topic is DEFCON. As I mentioned already, Spurs are happy to circulate the ball for ages until they bait the opposition into pressing. Because of that, I wouldn't be too optimistic about Van Hecke's potential. He finished the last match with 12 DCs, but two of those actions were calculated incorrectly. Two clearances were actually directed passes, with Gray and Vicario simply failing to receive them. There were also a couple of tackles high up the pitch, while some of the clearances came from Senesi. That's what happened to Hill last season: Senesi can be good at making the first contact, but someone still needs to clear the ball afterwards. So while Senesi is playing, he will naturally increase Van Hecke's potential, but over a larger sample, I'm still convinced De Zerbi's style will be the stronger factor.
This is the most important thing I've ever written:
https://t.co/E3H2Z0ozfF
All the edge to build your GW1 team the right way including how to pick defenders, how to avoid picking attackers who could slump, the ultimate chip strategy, and 3 rules to live by. All powered by my Manhattan Superintelligence.
👉🏻 Defenders who hit DEFCON whilst keeping a clean sheet
One of the more underrated considerations for players.
Some players may rarely actually hit DEFCON in the games where they defend the strongest, as you’d naturally expect.
Ballard + Bijol again ticking a lot of boxes. They racked up the DEFCON quite regularly even when keeping clean sheets!
The ones to watch for me are the Forest assets. We all know how amazing they would have been for DEFCON the year before last!
If they improve defensively under Glasner then we could be looking at some big DEFCON numbers combined with clean sheets!
Here’s my complete guide to assist with all pre season planning!
(Visual 🧵)
👉🏻Best fixtures + rotations
👉🏻Best WC + BB windows
👉🏻Best DEFCON assets
👉🏻Best DEFCON opponents
👉🏻Most consistent assets
👉🏻Bonus point magnets
#FPL
Some notes as I keep clocking pre-season highlights.
Will continue to thread it all.
Sunderland
- Hume didn't play Right mid. He played right back.
- Ballard very frequently used on set pcs.
- Le Fee didn't get into many promising positions.
- Onien had a good game at 4.0M. Created a couple of promising chances.
Brighton
- Hinshelwood furthest forward almost playing like a 9.5 as Rutter likes to drift wide. Had two big chances outside of his goal. Did the I smell a goal celebration when he scored. Good movement.
- Verb made some good saves.
- De Cuyper involved in a lot of attacks. Played left wing. Took some set pcs along with Gross.
- Gross further forward once Hinshelwood subbed off. Almost scored.
- Vuskovic had a decent set pc chance.