slendie

I like politics and trading prediction markets. Tech guy, pragmatic lib, New Yorker

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

I think about this a lot

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - Senate poll - Texas

🔵 James Talarico 52%
🔴 Ken Paxton (Inc) 48%

ActiVote (B) - LV - 10/14

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@Wellstonecratt No? Not gonna explain this completely unwarranted and misleading personal attack?

Lol ok buddy have a good one

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@Wellstonecratt Who’s stanning Manchin? I can’t stand him lol

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

Is this a lot? It sounds like a lot

[Jake Sherman @JakeSherman]

JAMES TALARICO raised $64M in Q3.

The press release does not say how much he has on hand,.

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@BlackJackHorror @PollTracker2024 Lawler?

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@JCJINKEY Yeah. It also insulates people from their voting choices, which is bad because then people don’t fully understand the consequences of those choices

Like, you want to vote for republicans? Cool, then you should have to experience their agenda. Let’s see if you like it lol

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@ZakJac_wx @PollTracker2024 He’ll do well in Rockland and Putnam per usual but I think Westchester (when I am) will be very strong for her. People here hate Trump and she’s doing a good job tying him to Lawler

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@ZakJac_wx @PollTracker2024 I’m feeling confident! Lawler is a tough opponent but I doubt he can survive the wave that’s coming

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@PollTracker2024 “Don’t vote for Joe Biden” is a fun closing message

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@Shimmersoft Sure is. Finding coherent, sensible takes is hard among all the hysteria and partisan wishcasting, but you're doing a great job

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

To be clear, I don't think that Justice or Morrisey necessarily *would* appoint Manchin. I'm just wondering if Manchin is *hoping* for some sort of arrangement like that to get back into the senate, might explain all the GOP endorsements he's making 🤷‍♂️

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

My theory here is Jim Justice is gonna leave the senate (if Dems win control) to run for WV governor again, and Manchin is hoping to be appointed to Justice’s open seat. He needs to brandish his independent/conservative chops first

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@TheReadjust To be clear I don't think he will (though maybe Justice would?)

My silly theory is just that Manchin is "hoping" for some kind of arrangement to get back in the senate lol, might explain all these Republican endoresements he's making 🤷‍♂️

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@therainonasunn1 @bdquinn Fair. I mostly ignore his commentary and just focus on his forecasts. When it comes to empirical forecasting and modeling, I just don't think anyone else comes close 🤷‍♂️

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@wb9rms6gyz To be clear I don't think he will (though maybe Justice would?)

My silly theory is just that Manchin is "hoping" for some kind of arrangement to get back in the senate lol, might explain all these Republican endoresements he's making 🤷‍♂️

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

My theory here is Jim Justice is gonna leave the senate (if Dems win control) to run for WV governor again, and Manchin is hoping to be appointed to Justice’s open seat. He needs to brandish his independent/conservative chops first

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Former Senator Joe Manchin (I-WV) endorses Brian Fitzpatrick (R) for US House in #PA01

“Please consider supporting Brian and voting for Brian to return to represent the 1st district of Pennsylvania.”

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@therainonasunn1 @bdquinn People just have no idea how to think probabilistically and blame people like Nate Silver when things don’t go how they want them to lol

[Shane Goldmacher @ShaneGoldmacher]

NEWS: A surprise new Democratic donor has emerged to fund his own super PAC and is spending $7 million in final weeks to blitz four red-state Senate races: FL, SC, MS and KS.

Meet the man behind the money —> w/ @teddyschleifer https://t.co/M8fagtUOKn

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@PalpableDisgust My man I don’t like Joe Manchin at all (though I appreciated his votes when Biden was president). I’m just kidding around

He and Jared Golden can go straight to hell lol