Dave

[கத்தாரு மைனரு @Raittuvidu]

இந்த viral meme தான் ஞாபகம் வந்துச்சு.. 🚶‍♂️🚶‍♂️

[Mr Vicki @ParamaTapasvii]

ಏನೇ ಹೇಳುದ್ರು ಇವರು ಹೇಳೋದು ಒಂತರ ಚೆನಾಗಿದೆ 😂😂

[Congress Kerala @INCKerala]

Indian Stock market has crashed like crazy today. This is the stock market of the world's fastest growing economy according to Feku.

The truth is that we are not even growing and the markets have realised the fakery.

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

Markets Sense a Long Era of Instability: Don’t Buy the Fall

(a) Govt is distracted (b) FIIs dislike mass protests (c) 2021-26: Nifty below-FD Return (d) FD rates will rise; Build Cash (d) China 17 yrs 0 return (e) Here’s India Data & Facts:

Second Order Effects on Economy

a. Govt is facing real political storms. It has no bandwidth left for major economic policy or reforms to attract foreign investment.

b. Foreign funds don’t invest where mass protests and public discontent are a daily affair. Their bet on India was a strong govt; strong economic agenda.

c. Inflation rising, unemployment rising; IT exports declining; Rupee under pressure. RBI is forced to fight inflation. FD rates will rise in Oct.

Zero Risk Premium in Equity

a. 5-Year Returns: Sept 2021 to Sept 2026 (5 Yrs): Nifty 50 Return: 32.3%; Post Office Deposit Return: 34.4%; SBI 5-Yr FD Return: 30.8%

b. 3-Year Returns: Nifty 50 Return: 15.58%; Sensex Return: 9.94%; Post Office Deposit Return: 21.56%; SBI FD Risk-Free Return: 21.34%

c. Last 3 Years: Out of a universe of 2,867 stocks, 43.3% delivered negative returns (one-third lost up to 50% value; 11% lost above 50% value).

d. Risk-Reward Ratio: In last 3 years, you had a 43.3% probability of destroying your capital. Against such high risk, even if you won, the returns were far too negligible to justify such volatile investment.

Don’t Bet on Growth Narrative

a. Yesterday, Kotak published a chart showing that China stock market (CSI 300) has remained sideways for the last 17 yrs; and has not yet regained the level it set 18 yrs ago.

b. Howard Marks published data in his recent memo: In the last 100 yrs, each time you bought S&P 500 at forward PE 23x, the annualized return in the next 10 yrs has been between +2% and -2%. Every single time. No exceptions.

c. India is no exception. India’s growth story of FDI, FII, IT boom, low inflation is long over. Over the next 5 yrs, the downside risk looks higher than the upside potential. If you go all-in, that’s a risky bet for your mental peace, with little potential upside.

Why Are FIIs So Pessimistic?

a. On Aug 28, Bernstein published a hard-hitting strategy note: "India’s corporate earnings are artificially engineered through state subsidies, fiscal cushions, and borrowed offshore dollars rather than through genuine productivity gains."

b. Market bulls touted NSE 200 top-line growth was 12%. Yet, net profit grew only 7%. Bernstein questioned the practice of excluding loss-making oil marketing companies (OMCs) "to manufacture a strong earnings growth story."

c. Govt expanded LPG/fertilizer subsidies, took $10B hit through excise duty reductions, $20B GST cuts, OMCs took $2B loss. So govt subsidized consumer spending power, which artificially padded the firms’ operating margins. That's not a long-term play.

d. $70B Pay Commission wage revision is coming, which will encumber sovereign balance sheet and cut govt’s capacity for public capex. Plus, with costly FCNR deposits, govt is purchasing rupee stability on credit, Bernstein warned.

e. Finally, Bernstein says India’s large caps are not investing in the future, and are consolidating their past (preserving balance sheets). Companies with deepest pockets don’t want to commit capital to emerging technologies, and want policy protection.

f. In this scenario, FIIs are forced to look at small and midcaps (SMIDs). But those companies remain sub-scale, with low free-floats, high volatility, and risky corporate governance. Institutional capital is not interested.

Bernstein concludes: With these problems, why should FIIs invest in India?

ENDPIECE: Investor Strategy

a. PE de-rating is going on globally. World-class US companies are available at throwaway prices, and there are no buyers. So, don’t get tempted by a falling market in India.

b. Build cash patiently. Unwind risky positions. Cash has 3 benefits: (1) Emergency funds give security & happiness (2) FD may beat equity for next few years (3) If global equity crashes, you will be the only buyer in town.

c. Think in Probabilities: Considering all macro factors: (1) India Equity Boom: 20% chance (2) Sideways: 60% chance (3) Bust: 20% chance

FD wins: 60% + 20% = 80% chance
Equity wins: 20% chance

Markets are the greatest game on earth. The dream to get rich is as old as the hills. Most investors will still pick equity.

@arabicatrader

[Vamsi Chandran @VamsiChandran]

Sad to see the state of the Communist parties in TN. Six months ago, they were with the DMK alliance; following Rahul Gandhi’s advice, they walked out and backed the TVK government. Now, they ve differences with TVK, refused to join their alliance.

Today, they’re left without an alliance. 😂 They are desperatly hoping DMK will approach them, but DMK doesn’t trust them. Now they’re standing in road, with nowhere to go.😂

Very soon Cong, VCK & IUML will be in same situation.

[Shankar Sharma @1shankarsharma]

As a Member of the NSE right from the very start, it's a matter of the greatest astonishment for me how far it has traveled.

We must all thank the then FM, Dr. Manmohan Singh, for creating the NSE.

We, at FG, were already BSE Members back then, and we greeted this news with scepticism. " Sarkaar kya stock exchange chalayegi?"

The BSE back then, of course, was a literally a den of thieves: an incestuous network of old boys club, with outsiders ( like us, first generation, educated, late-20s entrepreneurs, non -Guju, non-madoo, non-Jain) having an uphill battle to get in & survive, let alone prosper.

(But prosper we did!)

(The grey market price for a BSE membership was Rs. 2 cr in the 92-93 era!! So obviously, becoming a member was a BIG BIG deal back then).

So yes, an alternative to the BSE was needed but a public sector stock exchange?! Probably no such animal ever existed in the ROW.

RH Patil, the man behind the initial vision of the NSE would be a proud man today.

To be fair, the initial head start that NSE got was because of a quirk in regulations: the law said that exchanges which were located in a particular geography could not give terminals outside that area. So BSE could not offer terminals ( when the market went electronic mid 90s) outside Bombay limits.

NSE, being " National", could give out terminals across the country and this initial (probably unfair advantage ) gave it a massive & permanent lead over the BSE, in terms of terminals spread.

It is quite amazing how the Govt then created two recent giant public sector companies: Maruti & NSE , that have been durable across decades and have literally changed the face of India.

Without fanfare or publicity

[Sumit Behal @sumitkbehal]

Nifty is down 350 points today because Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru raised STT and failed to attract FII inflows in 1950

India will fix these issues by 2047

[Amit Arora 🇮🇳 @GuruShareMarket]

🤡 EVOLUTION OF INVESTOR FRIENDLY POLICIES 🤡

Before 2018 ~ No LTCG, 15% STCG Tax
2018 ~ 10% LTCG Tax came
2020 ~ Dividend income to be taxed
2024 ~ STCG increased from 15% to 20%
2024 ~ LTCG increased from 10% to 12.5%
2024 ~ STT raised on F&O
2026 ~ STT raised on F&O
2026 ~ MDR on UPI transactions

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

NSA Ajit Doval has said that India’s GDP would become $38 trillion in the next 20 years, a horizon he linked to 2047.

That implies the economy would grow nearly ten times in two decades.

Over the last twelve years of the current government, our GDP has only doubled.

On what basis would it grow another ten times in the next 20 years?

Why every goal is set for 2047?

Why not set measurable goals every five years?

If the government does not have clarity as to what is possible and what must be done to reach there, long range targets can create a sense of a great future that may not be achieved.

[Rofl Democrazy @FakeerHun]

Instagram is on another level 😭😂

[Dave @Daveslyf]

😂😂😂

[SuseeMaha❤️‍🔥 @SuseeMaha16]

யோவ் உண்மையை சொல்லு நீ தானா கொக்கி குமார் @Saattaidurai 😂

[Congress @INCIndia]

My friend!! Great Harassment!! 🤣

[ஆல்தோட்டபூபதி @thoatta]

டாக்டர், Engineer, Lawyerல இருந்து driver, mechanic, கொத்தனார், மேஸ்த்திரி, plumber வரை experienced வேணும்.. ஆனா நாட்டை ஆள ஒரு நடிகர் போதும்.. Blastu Blastu..

[Mohan kumar @mohanvnj]

@mrsiddharthgupt @vinodsrinivasan Other country should also learn from Modi right!?, Make all the worst decisions like Demonetisation, COVID mismanagement, PM care fund, Electoral bonds, exam leaks etc.,...Tweak GDP numbers and control entire media narratives, a fool will praise and follow!

[Arun Bothra 🇮🇳 @arunbothra]

While the accused Veeresh Jain deserves the harshest punishment, the affected patients and their families deserve the whole truth.

Which doctors and hospitals were involved? Who benefited from these suspiciously cheap medicines? Which patients were administered the fake drugs, and what were the consequences?

Every affected patient and family must be identified, informed and given access to the evidence necessary to pursue criminal cases against all those found responsible.

[Dave @Daveslyf]

Who even taught you math?

[Harsh Goenka @hvgoenka]

A different way to look at costs…

[பராசக்தி @Parasakthi_DMK]

😂😂

[Blue Sattai Maran @tamiltalkies]

Correct