Market Context
This is the most important foundation of my trading:
@Trader_XO was the first person to bring this to my attention and to this day his teachings still have a tremendous impact on my trading / process.
Market context should be one of the foundations of your trading. It helps you identify which trades you should be focusing on, from a more directional point of view.
Patterns don’t mean shit unless you are trading them in the right context, this goes for double tops / bottoms and even compression setups.
The daily / weekly 12/25 EMAs (TraderXO Macro Trend Scanner) is one of the simplest yet most efficient way to ensure your always on the right side of the trade.
In an uptrend, the daily bands will be green and price comfortably above. In a downtrend, the daily bands will be red, and they will act as resistance when price trades into them from the underside. In rotational (Range) environments you will see the daily bands more frequently cross both bullish & bearish.
My favourite tip for identifying a rangebound environment after an uptrend, is when we have the first bearish cross on the bands. Vis versa, in a downtrend you can wait for the first bullish cross to anticipate a rotational environment.
I urge you all to implement market context into your trading process and have clear rules defining how you identify each environment.
So I have been thinking about folks between 28-35.
It has become obvious to me that this phase of life is one of the most misunderstood and emotionally demanding seasons anyone will ever pass through.
At this age, life quietly removes the training wheels. You are no longer seen as young and figuring it out, yet you don’t fully feel established. Expectations rise from every direction. Family expects stability. Society expects progress. Your peers seem to be doing better online. And you expect answers from yourself that are not yet clear.
This is the age where comparison becomes dangerous. You start measuring your life against timelines that were never designed for you. Someone is married. Someone bought a house. Someone relocated. Someone is already tired of a career you are just entering. And without warning, pressure creeps in, not because you are failing, but because you are becoming more aware.
Between 28-35, many people are not lazy or unserious. They are simply overwhelmed. This is the stage where reality replaces motivation. Where dreams meet bills. Where talent meets structure. Where passion demands discipline. You are forced to confront gaps in your skills, mindset, finances, and emotional health.
It is also the age where isolation becomes common. Friends drift. Circles shrink. Conversations become transactional. You are surrounded by people, yet feel alone. And when there is no strong sense of purpose or progress, escape starts to look attractive, whether through distractions, unhealthy habits, or quiet resignation.
But this phase is not a curse. It is a construction site.
It is the age where you must stop relying on potential and start building systems. Where you must upgrade skills, not for applause, but for survival and relevance. Where you learn that no one is coming to save you, yet you are more capable than you ever realized.
If you are between 28-35 and feel lost, tired, or behind, it does not mean something is wrong with you. It means you are awake. Growth at this stage is rarely loud. It is often lonely, uncomfortable, and slow. But it is also foundational.
This season rewards those who stay honest with themselves, invest in learning, choose better environments, and keep moving even when clarity is incomplete.
✏️ Giving away 3 copies of “Bring Your Own Pencil”
📖 Bill Walsh + Leadership
✈️ Short enough to read on a plane ride.
1. Retweet to Enter
2. Tag a someone to Enter 2x
🏆 Winners announced after the Game!
As I continue to watch this, notice how everybody did their job, we knew we had the baddest MF in the middle. All we had to do was control the edges, and keep him clean & watch him hunt! Not only that watch how in every frame, we didn’t assume the runner was going down. Everybody was trying to take a chunk out of a man!
The only marriages that survive decades are the ones where both people outgrow their illusions, not each other.
A few hard truths most couples avoid:
At some point, love becomes logistics. If you can handle bills, stress, ageing parents, health scares and bad days without turning into enemies, you’ve already won half the battle.
Rituals matter. Not the Instagram kind…the tiny, boring, consistent ones. Eating together. Checking in. Saying the difficult thing before it becomes poison.
Respect ages better than passion. Desire fluctuates…dignity doesn’t. If your partner can trust your tone even in conflict, the marriage will breathe.
Don’t chase perfection…chase awareness. Most marriages break not because people change, but because they stop noticing each other’s changes.
And finally learn to fight clean. The goal is to solve the problem, not win the argument.
Long marriages are not fairy tales.
They’re two people choosing maturity over impulse again and again even on the days they don’t feel like it.
You’re so much cooler than you think you are. The niche shit you’re into and your blend of hobbies traits and talents are literally 1 of 1. You free yourself by shining that light for everyone to see. The moment you shrink back or try to copy another mf is when you become lame.
Your skin, energy, and even your biological age are built in your kitchen.
The foods you eat send chemical signals that shape collagen, inflammation, hormones, and the health of your cells.
Here are 4 types of foods to eat to look and feel decades younger:
Exercise daily.
Don’t eat junk.
Don’t take advice from people who have not been or currently aren’t where you want to be.
“Hire slowly, fire fast” with friends and people in your life. Negative people are cancerous.
Read often. It’s a form of nourishment.
Find your partner, have kids.
Embrace losses, if you’re alive you have infinite restarts.
Passed Pawn's Perspective
1. Equities dip and bounce every time. We like to attribute it to headlines and tacos, but the reality is nobody believes the admin is willing to take any pain in the markets. So it's really just an excuse for modest positioning resets, as needed.
2. The Fed is going to cut again this month. I don't think they should, but they want to. We used to trade by an old expression "don't fight the Fed." The Fed isn't everything but it's a big something, and they aren't too concerned about inflation, whether the price or asset kind.
3. Ironically when the Fed was concerned about inflation, that's when you shouldn't have been. Inflation dropped like a rock for a solid year and asset prices felt the tailwind. I'd argue now you should be at least a little concerned since they mostly aren't.
4. Portfolio flows seem to agree with me. The popular term has become the "debasement trade", although that's a bit different from price inflation, it's not unrelated. I have no idea what inning we are in, but my gut is we're past the 7th inning stretch.
5. Just keep in mind the late innings of these moves can be insane, and where the blowoff tops occur. Given the capital flows, I don't find it hard to see continued up-rating of AI related infrastructure businesses, for example. Some aren't even that expensive, oddly.
6. All of the incessant arguments about the dollar have led to it going absolutely nowhere for 4 months. Could you please stop so we can finally see another move? I remain bearish, but tactically flat because of the lackluster price action.
7. I continue to have a bias for non-$ assets and the US ETFs in my portfolio are some of the worst performers, despite continuing to grind higher. This environment is not short of growth so why hoard growth assets? Not to mention that the hoarding already happened for years. If anything this has been the year of de-hoarding.
8. Precious metals have become very precious. I've noted that a shift in long term portfolio allocations can cause a relative repricing of assets. I wouldn't fade it, although I've rebalanced recently, taking some chips off the table.
9. Not so precious Bitcoin has fallen to the bottom end of the range vs gold. It's now or never for our digital friend. The crypto markets are actually a bloodbath, for those of you who only track BTC and ETH. Too much supply, wildly high early cycle market caps, and other problems continue to plague the sector.
10. Bonds have performed well lately. On one hand, it's a mystery with risk asset prices flying and financial conditions easy, but on the other, the Fed is cutting o/n rates and policymakers are focused on getting term rates down. Refer back to #2 about fighting the Fed (and Treasury). Also, who doesn't need a recession hedge for all of their 5x levered equity ETFs?
Have a great week...
-PP
"I thought trading strategies work best if you have your own unique strategy that is better than others, AND no one else has it. Otherwise, you are just buying and selling at the same time as others."
The reality is that many profitable trading strategies aren't secret at all; they're well-documented and widely known (of course you can always tweak here and there). For the most part, they're harvesting risk premia: you get compensated for taking on risks that others aren't willing or able to bear.
Most people think trading is always about finding some hidden alpha. But that's not realistic for most people. The idea that you'll discover some pattern or inefficiency that thousands of well-funded quants, institutional traders, and algorithms haven't already found and arbitraged away is, for most people, a fantasy. For most traders, chasing alpha is a distraction.
The money is made by systematically taking on risks that the market will pay you to absorb. It's less about outsmarting everyone and more about having the risk tolerance to step in where others won't.
Hot Take:
> convinced that 99.99% of people would lose less money if they used a naked chart with just the insillico hull suite indicator or some form of trend following MA/EMA strat. in a trending environment.
> based on historical data so is obviously a more primitive form vs. monitoring flow and being able to have a read in real-time. However, still believe it's a great tool for most people who overcomplicate things while believing complicated = more money.
> personally still see a lot of gibberish takes on flow on the regular since it seems to be the "hot" thing now.
> exhibit A: indicator by @btc_charlie & @Trader_XO - adjustable fast and slow EMA (+ other bell and whistles).
I AM ABOUT TO WALK INTO THE MOST ABUNDANT BALANCED WEALTHY AND SUCCESSFUL PERIOD OF MY LIFE. I NATURALLY ATTRACT GOOD FORTUNE, AND I AM WEALTHY IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE. I GIVE MYSELF PERMISSION TO PROSPER, AND I HAVE THE POWER TO BUILD THE LIFE THAT I DESIRE
GOD WILLING