Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸

Software engineer turned CPA, turned Harvard MBA, turned value investor, turned to making money in markets in whatever way that WORKS. 🇮🇱🇺🇸

[AnnaF @AnnaFlorcia]

Since $LQDA didn't provide script numbers I'm going to attempt the math:

75% of Q3 daily was observed in October. 25% loss overall. This seems to be a hiccup in October but we are going to assume it's permanent (worst case scenario if 50% of PH-ILD is gone for good).

410 starts a month has been the average.

75% of 410 is ~310.

5,900 unique patient prescriptions and more than 5,000 patients treated between launch in June 2025 and July 31, 2026.

5 x 310 gives us 1500, 5000 + 1500 is 6500 at end of 2026.

$180K as the absolute min per patient per year (average cost after discounts).

6500 x $180K is ~$1.2B revenue rate going into 2027.

If you assume a slow down + patient drop-off due to death etc, to 250 a month, 12 x 250 x $180K = $540M + $1.1B( -$100M for ~10% drop-off) is $1.6B in 2027.

*250/month and $180K a year offsets drop-offs, discounts, vouchers, etc.

I expect it to be higher than $1.6B. 😁

[AnnaF @AnnaFlorcia]

I'm sticking to these numbers for now.

$7 non-GAAP EPS for $LQDA in 2027. 20x is $140 a share.

JPM healthcare conference Jan 11-14. RJ will get Q4 numbers out probably a week before.

SSc-RP Ph2 Data in May. Maybe a sneak peek at JPM.

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

@AnnaFlorcia $LQDA I don’t believe using a revenue multiple is appropriate. LQDA EBITDA margins is much higher than that of UTHR based on numbers released today, hence an EBITDA multiple makes much more sense.

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

@SirHiss108 @AnnaFlorcia @Prof_Shlappy $LQDA I don’t understand what are you arguing about - who cares if doctors know RJ? It is obvious they know Yutrepia is the superior drug in PAH and ILD - that’s what matters.

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

@BeenThereCap Do you still own ASPI?

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

@broheim777 So strong on the worst day in a while.

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

@broheim777 @CDe_Gasperis Worse than dog shit

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

@urieli17 אחי אתה מפספס משהו גדול. אנתרופיק פרסמה את התשקיף שלה ויש להם רווחיות גולמית של 85%. הם ממש לא מסבסדים אותך.

כן, המחשוב הזה יקר, אבל הם כנראה מסוגלים להשתמש בו בשביל לשרת אלפי או יותר משתמשים.

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

@broheim777 @valueventurez $LODE and this ignores the value in the solar recycling.

[E Robert @broheim777]

$LODE imho the risk/reward is pretty juicy here. I think worst case LODE’s 50% equity interest is worth $150M or essentially its current market cap.

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

$LQDA Yep

[guêpe349 @slk349390919]

@deathtouch2k Different situation with legal restrictions, but this is not being understood by the market about $lqda either. Credit to @Steven_Kiel

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

$LQDA back to $70 in no time.

[dough @semodough]

$LQDA & $UTHR BTIG KOL Checks Suggest
Limited Near-Term Disruption of Yutrepia
Retention in PH-ILD and Strong Enthusiasm
for Tyvaso's Expected Expansion Into IPF

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

Everyone is focused on what $LQDA lost in the UTHR settlement.

I’m more interested in what survived.

$222.7M in Q3 sales. 31% QoQ growth. PAH access secured. L606 still in development.

The real question: How much growth survives the PH-ILD exit?

That’s the opportunity.

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

4/4

Fast-forward 8 quarters to Q3 2028:

Revenue run rate: ~$1.84B
EBITDA at 50% margin: ~$921M

Apply UTHR’s ~14.3x EV/EBITDA multiple and adjust for net debt/settlement costs:

~$13B market cap, or ~$145/share.

No L606 value included.

Bull case, not a price target. $LQDA

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

1/4

I’ve been revisiting my $LQDA valuation following the UTHR settlement, and I think the market may be underestimating how much of the YUTREPIA business could survive.

Here’s my bull-case math, based partly on comments coming out of the recent CHEST conference. 👇

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

3/4

Now the growth.

Q1→Q2 added ~$40.5M in sales.
Q2→Q3 added ~$52.3M.

Average: ~$46.4M per quarter.

I’m assuming growth slows to just 70% of that pace, or ~$32.5M in additional quarterly revenue.

No compounding. Just adding the same dollar amount each quarter.

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

@habitcoinist יש שמועות על זה ש-openAI גנזו את כל המאמרים בנושא קריפטוגרפיה, ולכן התחום הזה לא קיים בכל מאות מאמרי המתמטיקה שהם פרסמו.

אז אני לא הייתי ממהר להסיק שזו כזאת חומה בצורה…

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

@ZZZBBB12345 @AnnaFlorcia No, the extension is - AFTER one year of being on the market with $LQDA promoting it and doctors seeing that it actually works much better then the alternatives, now Yutrepia needs no further marketing.

[Money4Nothing 🇮🇱🇺🇸 @DeepValuePlay]

@AnnaFlorcia That’s what I’m guessing as well. It’s going to be a tough conversation for a doctor: “I know you’re dying and this is the best drug for you but I can’t tick this box right here… so, tough for you”