Very proud to announce that @Shivane478123 and I published our first white paper with @CNASdc earlier this week on post-war governance and social services in #Gaza. 🧵 [1/8]
https://t.co/tIyI6g7m7R
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The idea that this status quo of “frozen conflict” in the Strait of Hormuz is sustainable - punctuated by low levels of violence and a blockade that severely limits traffic - is deeply flawed.
Virtual registration for the 2026 CNAS Annual Conference is now live!
Join us on June 11 for a full day of discussions on the issues shaping global security and the New Rules the U.S. and its allies need to embrace.
I wrote about this recently in a @lawfare piece for those interested in more detail.
Keep an eye on this space. It will become increasingly relevant if the Iran-U.S. ceasefire falls apart.
https://t.co/dniVaRHodZ
"Iran has been able to rebuild much faster than expected due to a combination of factors, ranging from support it is receiving from Russia and China to the fact that the US and Israel did not inflict as much damage as the two countries had hoped..."
https://t.co/tyeGSVmPms
1. The Shahed and Geran production facility in Alabuga, Russia.
2. Russian weapons manufacturing facilities in other countries (particularly China and Belarus).
3. Efforts to evade international sanctions by smuggling dual-use tech on the Caspian Sea.
Every word: "how recklessly underprepared it was and how profoundly its architects misunderstood #Iran’s political and military system. This was not merely a failed operation; it was a fiasco rooted in a strategy that bore little resemblance to the realities on the ground"
https://t.co/i1O77N2FXv
There are several remarkable things about this @nytimes reporting from @tylerpager and @EricSchmittNYT on the latest round of potential strikes on #Iran. Let's get into it.
Russia has targeted four key African states—Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa—as gateways for expanding its influence in the region.
@KateSJohnston, Valeria Allende, and Isabel Dlabach demonstrate why, and how, the U.S. should offer these “swing states” an alternative.
Grab coffee with any national security comms person, and they’ll probably tell you things are in a difficult spot. Social media algorithms disadvantage institutional voices and the links they share, while legacy media continues to get clobbered by new risers.
The Pentagon claims the Iran war costs $25B. We crunched the numbers: $8B in munitions, $5B in equipment, $1B in operating costs for 2 carriers and 16 destroyers across 39 days of conflict. Missing: cost of base damage and other munitions.
In @business: https://t.co/5Bm99aoqDY
ICYMI: Drones, AI, and space won't replace airborne battle management anytime soon. They'll supplement it.
Watch @PhilSheers, Q Hinote, Kari Bingen, and me unpack what that means, including lessons from the Iran war in our @CNASdc panel.
https://t.co/eyI6gsnlWl
Airbone battle managers have been essential in detecting low-flying drones and cruise missiles in the Middle East.
@PhilSheers on why they are uniquely capable compared to ground based radars, and why it may have lessons for our homeland defense.
Additionally, working with the Caspian Sea littoral states could make it significantly more difficult for Iran and Russia to smuggle UAVs—w/o fear of attracting unwanted public attention and exposing their cargo to physical risks, like one-way drone attacks or jamming signals.
Very proud to see my most recent article published in @Lawfare. I discuss the Russian-Iranian partnership in the context of the #Iran war and Operation Epic Fury.
https://t.co/dniVaRHodZ
Main points of my argument 👇
@WhiteHouse needs to introduce friction into this malign alliance between #Moscow and #Tehran through public messaging—for example, by publicizing more of the information Western intelligence agencies learn about this covert smuggling and sanctions evasion activity.