Multicoin Capital just published its Hyperliquid report.
Multicoin called $BNB at $10 back in 2019. Now they're assigning a 2028 base case of $319 for $HYPE.
Two quotes from the report stood out to me:
"Hyperliquid is the most significant new crypto exchange to launch since Binance. We don’t say this lightly."
"We believe Hyperliquid is becoming the everything exchange: a fully integrated, 24/7 exchange capable of trading any asset, anytime, anywhere, with durable token value capture."
Their valuation scenarios for $HYPE:
- Bear case: $109
- Base case: $319
- Bull case: $689
The House of All Finance.
Why sell $HYPE when the catalysts for the next leg are massive?
Only 22% of supply is circulating, with a daily buyer underneath. That's a very different market structure.
THYP, BHYP, and HYPG are all live now, and cumulative HYPE ETF inflows are ~$130M.
FalconX estimates ETF flows absorbed around 0.4-0.5% of HYPE's market cap in the first week, faster than BTC, ETH, and SOL on a relative basis.
We also have European ETPs live on Xetra, staking products, and even Hyperliquid Strategies filing for a $1B IPO just to acquire and stake HYPE.
TradFi buyers don't panic because Arthur sold his bags. I even think this is just supply getting distributed into the hands of longer-term holders.
CFTC blessing US-listed perps is bullish for Hyperliquid too.
When institutions start taking perps seriously, the venue already running the most liquid 24/7 onchain perps becomes impossible to ignore.
Hyperliquid is already where the weird stuff trades before TradFi opens.
Bloomberg literally used Hyperliquid oil perps as a weekend signal during geopolitical chaos.
SpaceX pre-IPO perp exposure through HIP-3 was available before anything similar existed in traditional markets. Maybe Stripe, Databricks, OpenAI-type names later.
@HyperliquidX could become the pre-IPO price discovery venue before the actual stock even exists in public markets.
So I just see Hyperliquid capturing more and more value → more buybacks → potential supply shock.
Most crypto is still down hard from highs, while $HYPE is up 140% YTD. It's one of the better ways to hedge a crypto portfolio imo.
One more point that makes sense to me is that some large funds may accumulate HYPE to launch their own HIP-4 markets after seeing what HIP-3 has already achieved.
I know the unlocks are there, but the market has already absorbed multiple monthly unlocks.
The market hates unknown unlocks more than known unlocks.
As long as the demand side keeps winning that spread, $HYPE probably keeps moving higher.
One thing people still don't fully understand about $HYPE
The real question isn't:
"Why is HYPE worth $60 today?"
It's:
"Who is going to be selling HYPE 6-12 months from now?"
Over the last month we already saw the market started repricing what Hyperliquid building and $HYPE ran from $45 to $75.
What’s even more interesting is that this move doesn’t look like it was primarily driven by leverage.
Spot demand absorbed supply while OI fully reset.
Important part is that most of these buyers are not short-term speculators.
> ETFs.
> Assistance Fund.
> HSI.
> Long-term holders.
They don't create a support level on a random Tuesday.
They slowly remove coins from circulation,every day.
That's why I think many people are looking at the current flows the wrong way.
They're trying to estimate how much price should move today from ETF inflows.
The more important question is what the circulating float looks like after 6-12 months of constant absorption.
Because if demand stays flat while available supply keeps shrinking, the market eventually has to reprice.
That's why the move from $45 to $75 never looked like the final run to me.
It looked like the beginning of a repricing.
The first phase was the market realizing Hyperliquid isn't just another perp DEX.
The second phase will be the market realizing there simply aren't that many coins available anymore.
And that's before:
• US perps
• larger ETF AUM
• institutional flows
• next season incentives
• HIP-5?
start contributing at scale.
People keep asking where the next buyers comes from.
I'm increasingly asking where the future supply comes from.
While I was hoping that $HYPE could pull away, the move to $75 was very vertical in a short period of time. Ultimately the floor collapsing on $BTC was too much to overcome.
There are no safe havens in crypto, but the difference when you hold $HYPE vs. any other alt in crypto is that you’re buying a token that has a flourishing idio growth story which continues whether the token goes up or down.
Couple that with willing long-term bidders and early innings of TradFi accumulation and you get one of the only tokens that gives you a fighting chance against unrelenting downside beta.
I have no idea what the potential short term downside is, you can do the TA if you want, but when shit hits the fan there’s no other cryptoasset I’d rather bet on.
Perhaps the worst coin to overtrade.
reasons arthur sold his $HYPE:
"higher energy prices due to iran war and inventory restocking"
> TRADEABLE ON HYPERLIQUID
"3 mega AI IPOs between now and early Q3"
> TRADEABLE ON HYPERLIQUID
"prediction that trump goes anti-AI to win mid-terms for republicans"
> TRADEABLE ON HYPERLIQUID
"i think highs in markets will happen between now and september"
> BOTTOM IS IN FOR HYPE
"time to take profit, and two-step in beefa without worrying about my positions"
> I'M A PUSSY
ICYMI: FOUNDER AND CEO OF ICE (OWNER OF @NYSE) ON @HyperliquidX
"BY THE WAY, THE NUMBER OF BILLIONAIRES THAT ARE BEING CREATED DOING THIS. THIS HYPERLIQUID THAT WE'RE TALKING -- IF YOU HAVEN'T HEARD ABOUT IT, IT'S BIGGER THAN NASDAQ, OKAY?"
"IT'S 11 PEOPLE. YOU LOOK AT IT, YOU'RE LIKE, WOW, THAT'S PRETTY SOMETHING"
SOURCE: https://t.co/v8TSb9yBiT
I spent the past few days in Washington with @hyperliquidpc meeting with policymakers during the historic advancement of the Clarity Act. We discussed Hyperliquid, the benefits that it offers to American consumers, and the regulatory path to bring onchain derivatives markets into the United States.
Some conversations were technical with an impressive baseline understanding of Hyperliquid. Discussions included how onchain trading is a financial innovation that has clear global user demand. Other conversations focused more on a first principles introduction to defi and the promise of onchain markets. It was encouraging to see bipartisan support for thoughtful regulation of crypto. I look forward to continuing discussions in DC and working hard to make American access to Hyperliquid a reality.
Excited to see everyone come together for this historic moment. AQAv2 brings the protocol-aligned stablecoin model that @Nativemarkets trail-blazed to USDC with @Coinbase and @Circle's commitment to Hyperliquid. The community no longer has to choose between liquidity and alignment.
Our industry will face adversity as we continue to grow. It gives me hope seeing titans of the industry come together to build for users and bring all of finance onchain.
Tomorrow is going to be a big day.
$CBRS IPOs tomorrow and $DGXX is my favorite proxy.
Most people are going to try to chase Cerebras on day one. The IPO was oversubscribed, raised from $115-$125 to $150-$160, upsized to 30 million shares, and Polymarket has it closing above $50 billion on day one.
Getting in at a good price on the IPO itself is nearly impossible for retail.
So instead of chasing it I am watching $DGXX.
Digi Power X signed a 10 year $1.1 billion colocation agreement directly with Cerebras to build and operate their AI data center campus in Columbiana Alabama.
Up to $2.5 billion in total expansion options. Phase 1 operational by December 15 2026.
A $50 billion AI chip company going public tomorrow. The company building their infrastructure has a $550 million market cap.
When $CBRS starts trading tomorrow morning and every financial headline is about the hottest AI IPO of 2026 the market is going to start mapping who actually builds what Cerebras runs on. That connection gets made fast.
The re-rate for $DGXX does not happen gradually. It happens in real time.
Tomorrow is going to be interesting.
$DGXX $CBRS
USDC is becoming a core part of @HyperliquidX’s evolving market structure.
USDC will become an Aligned Quote Asset on Hyperliquid and continue as the primary collateral asset across HIP-1, HIP-2, HIP-3, and now HIP-4 markets.
As Hyperliquid expands into new onchain markets, USDC enables:
→ Deep liquidity across trading pairs
→ Greater capital efficiency ecosystem-wide
→ Seamless crosschain access to digital dollars
Circle is also making a significant financial investment in the ecosystem through HYPE staking.
Hyperliquid.
https://t.co/bxFRXgYJLm
Today we’re expanding our support for @HyperliquidX by becoming the platform’s official treasury deployer of USDC.
Onchain markets operate 24/7 and require collateral that is always available, instantly transferable, and deeply liquid - USDC delivers exactly that.
Alongside this, we’ve also significantly increased our position of staked HYPE.
Coinbase has announced its plan to activate AQAv2 on USDC as the treasury deployer, with Circle serving as the technical deployer responsible for CCTP and native cross-chain infrastructure. Both Coinbase and Circle have committed to stake HYPE to activate AQAv2. As part of this transition, Native Markets has agreed to terms granting Coinbase the right to purchase the USDH brand assets. With Coinbase, in its role as treasury deployer, sharing the vast majority of reserve yield revenue with the protocol, USDC will become the most aligned stablecoin on Hyperliquid. As a result, canonical outcome (HIP-4) markets will use USDC as the quote asset in a future network upgrade.
User and builder feedback has been consistent that fragmentation leads to degraded experience; now, the community no longer needs to choose between liquidity and protocol alignment.
The pioneering work of Native Markets in launching USDH as the first production-scale stablecoin sharing yield directly with a protocol in a purely onchain implementation made AQAv2 possible. The learnings and mechanics pioneered by USDH will live on in AQAv2.
The Hyper Foundation will give grants to eligible HIP-3 deployers, HIP-1 deployers, and builders who integrated USDH, supporting teams through migration over the next months. These grants reflect an ongoing commitment to teams who choose to build on Hyperliquid and align with the protocol. USDH markets are fully functional but will sunset over time. USDH remains fully backed, with feeless conversions to USDC and fiat available to users during this transition.
JUST LOCKED 30M TOKENS FOR 10 YEARS!! 🔒🔥
2.6M tokens will unlock every year for weekly donations
(50,000 $SAN every week) 🐕❤️
Donation Wallet:
FN86LeVFG6GcUGwyLSCmjEZc8qiWAaqTnTVBehPDB5X2
We are a crypto charity project 🐕🚶
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