Yesterday we saw a sharp increase in volatility as measured by the VIX and among many individual stocks. It looks like we have entered an overdue shift in price behavior where trading breakouts will be challenging.
Initial jobless claims are still subdued, close to the pre-pandemic level, and low by historical norms. Wall Street was forecasting that the Fed would start lowering interest rates by March. That never happened and it is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Now some are questioning if rates will start coming down this year!
With volatility on the rise, bullish sentiment lofty, and individual stock action suspect, I see no reason to do anything more than play it very cautious for the time being and until conditions improve.
The long term trend is up, but a short term a pullback of 4-7% and even up to 10-12% would be normal. A pullback of that magnitude may not happen, but it's overdue.
We have not seen a jump of 150% or more on the $VIX since 2006; before that, 1993. In 2006, we headed into a bear market, but 1993 was just a correction/consolidation.
Our long term $SPY trend model remains bullish and we don't see a major top forming. However, our stock only STEM risk model is at maximum caution. That's pretty much all we need to know for the near term. Breakouts not working, stops not holding... no trading.
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
If one down day in the market leads you to panic, maybe you shouldn't be trading, maybe you should shut off the news, maybe you should reduce position size, maybe work on your mental toughness, or maybe blame your parents for raising a wimp. 🤷♂️