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Derek Macartney
@DerekMacartney
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$SATS working well here. I’ve also got a leverage in play with $SATG
If we blow off on $SPCX …. 🚀
Decent bounce today in semis, memory, AI infra but broadly market looks susceptible. VIX rising steadily intra-day and $SPY tagging 745 before closing just below 740.
The war escalation<>ceasefire seesaw shifts attention away from treasury yields for now, but Wednesday CPI will draw eyes back to yields.
Theory going around, peace deal might be announced just after CPI release to protect markets… market might need it.
Then $SPCX catalyst later in week. Incredible business, will be a sign for space theme and will it suck liquidity temporarily.
I’ve taken today to trim many swings, deleverage, and increase cash to 10% - if tomorrow is green, I’ll trim further to 20%
On $SPCX I think $SATS provides an interesting trade idea.
SpaceX IPOs tomorrow at a $1.75 trillion valuation. $SATS owns more than 2% of SpaceX.
It seems like almost nobody is doing the math on what that is actually worth.
EchoStar swapped a chunk of its wireless spectrum for a stake of more than 2% in SpaceX last September as part of the FCC approved $40 billion deal with SpaceX and AT&T.
At the time SpaceX was valued far below where it is about to list. Tomorrow that stake gets repriced against a $1.75 trillion company.
At that $1.75 trillion price, TD Cowen pegs EchoStar’s SpaceX stake at roughly $31 billion and puts a $155 target on the stock.
But SpaceX is widely expected to trade well above its IPO price.
Run the same math at a $2 trillion valuation and that stake jumps to around $40 billion on its own, which is more than EchoStar’s entire $36 billion market cap today.
You would be getting the SpaceX position alone for more than the whole company is currently worth, with everything else thrown in for free.
And there is a lot else. A $40 billion spectrum sale to AT&T and SpaceX that wipes out the 2026 debt wall everyone was scared of.
Around 5 million satellite TV customers. 2 million Sling subscribers. 7 million Boost Mobile customers. 700,000 broadband customers.
One of the most valuable spectrum portfolios in the country sitting on top of roughly $10 billion in net cash.
The market spent years treating EchoStar as a dying satellite TV company buried in debt. That story is finished.
The spectrum deal cleared the overhang and the SpaceX stake quietly turned this into one of the only ways for public investors to own a real piece of SpaceX.
The honest risk is the roughly $22 billion in debt and the fact that the FCC transfers do not fully close until 2027. This is not a clean bet.
But at $116, with SpaceX about to list and likely run toward $2 trillion, the math points higher. TD Cowen sees $155 even using the conservative number.
SpaceX prices tonight. EchoStar owns 2% of it.
Not touching my $MU position!
Decent bounce today in semis, memory, AI infra but broadly market looks susceptible. VIX rising steadily intra-day and $SPY tagging 745 before closing just below 740.
The war escalation<>ceasefire seesaw shifts attention away from treasury yields for now, but Wednesday CPI will draw eyes back to yields.
Theory going around, peace deal might be announced just after CPI release to protect markets… market might need it.
Then $SPCX catalyst later in week. Incredible business, will be a sign for space theme and will it suck liquidity temporarily.
I’ve taken today to trim many swings, deleverage, and increase cash to 10% - if tomorrow is green, I’ll trim further to 20%
On $SPCX I think $SATS provides an interesting trade idea.
Just left the 75 minute meeting with $AAOI management... I'm definitely even more bullish now than I was going into the meeting... if $AAOI wasn't already a top 7 position and/or wasn't up 13% today I'd be increasing our position by 30% or more. I really hope we get another pullback because i'd love to load up again under $160.
I'll try to put together a post in the next few days with my thoughts... it's becoming very clear that most investors aren't bullish enough on optics and we're still in the very early innings.
Giddy up!!!!
NFA
DYOR
**We own $AAOI at @FirstWaveFund and added to our position several times last week... just wish I had added more.
WELLS FARGO RAISES MICRON TARGET PRICE TO $1220 FROM $550
$SATS NAV Analysis
With the SpaceX / SPCX IPO scheduled for 6/12, I want to highlight what may be the most undervalued stock in the S&P 500.
Mcap is only 33B.
$SATS will own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.
According to the SPCX prospectus, SPCX will acquire spectrum from SATS in exchange for 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, approximately $8.5B in cash, and an additional roughly $2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS was expected to make.
In addition, SATS is expected to sell approximately $23B of spectrum to $T. That transaction was approved by the FCC on 5/12 and is expected to receive final approval around 6/11, leading to the formal closing of the transaction.
Now, let’s do the math.
My base NAV assumptions:
• SPCX ownership equivalent: approximately 2%
• SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M
• Fully diluted share count after convertible debt conversion: 348M
I use 348M shares for the calculation below.
• Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
approximately $23B from $T
approximately $8B of cash from $SPCX
total: approximately $31B
• If the convertible debt converts into equity, net cash after debt minus cash becomes approximately $11B
• Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B
• Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B
• Residual operating business value: $10B
2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple
• Even after selling spectrum to $T and $SPCX, SATS will still retain residual spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.
If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that alone adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.
Formula:
SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + residual operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares
SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:
• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254
The key point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade.
Even if SPCX prices the IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin.
Most of the IPO shares are likely to be pre-allocated to institutional and retail investors.
That means the number of shares actually available in the open market on IPO day could be far smaller than the headline IPO size suggests.
The real question is not:
“How many SPCX shares will be issued?”
The real question is:
“What is the actual dollar value of SPCX shares available to buy in the open market on IPO day?”
If the day-one public float is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or even higher.
The possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should also not be ignored.
Nasdaq recently changed its rules to make it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index early.
If SPCX shows a massive market cap and sufficient liquidity soon after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the regular annual rebalance.
That said, if SPCX’s float is extremely low, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limits.
So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis.
Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running by institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds.
If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could tighten further, and SATS NAV would be repriced in real time.
SK hynix: will keep supplying memory aligned with Nvidia's infrastructure plan and worldwide AI demand
$NVDA & SK Hynix announced a multiyear partnership to co-develop advanced memory for Vera Rubin, Vera CPUs, RTX Spark PCs & Jetson Thor robotics platforms.
SK Hynix will also use Nvidia software & digital twins to improve chip design, manufacturing & autonomous fab operations.
$MU A lot of fear being fed into the memory narrative I suspect by those sidelined from April…
Agentic AI, Robotics, Space, Data Centres…
Sometimes it’s best to not overthink what is right in front of you…
Memory has traditionally been cyclical, but so has everything else. Until it’s not.
AI is not a cyclical event, it’s an Industrial Revolution. It moves a cycle into a new paradigm where capital, talent, and demand all come together to build the next frontier… we are here.
I’m doubling down on $MU $DRAM $EWY at these levels, and even more on any further pullbacks.
We might see corrections, they are your gift on the way up.
$IREN: The cloud market's dark horse
I bet most $IREN bulls are starting to get increasingly exhausted by the price action. I certainly am.
However, as long-term investors, we should see day-to-day price action as nothing more than noise.
$IREN is particularly "noisy," which makes it an especially difficult hold. Yet in times like these, it's important to step back and refocus on the company's fundamentals rather than let price action sway one's emotions.
And the way I see it, $IREN's competitive standing is rapidly improving.
I recently came across an interesting research report by Goldman Sachs that highlighted the discrepancy between planned data center capacity and realized capacity.
Out of the ~18 GW planned to be commissioned over the past 6 quarters, only about ~11 GW actually got built.
Not only is the gap between planned and realized capacity rapidly widening, but the rate at which new capacity is coming online has actually declined over the past couple of quarters.
Much of this discrepancy comes down to power continuing to be a major bottleneck.
As grids get more and more constrained with lead times reaching 5+ years, many developers are moving toward behind-the-meter (BTM) generation (on site power generation), circumventing the need for grid connectivity.
Yet that comes with its own set of problems and bottlenecks. The end result is an increasing amount of delays and outright project cancellations.
This industry backdrop plays directly into the hands of $IREN, which now has 5.8 GW of secured grid-connected power across global jurisdictions.
The only reason the industry is switching toward BTM is that it's the only option if you don't want to wait in multi-year queues to secure grid connections. But don't get it twisted, grid-connected power remains the preferred option.
$IREN is in a unique position to capitalize on this structural bottleneck and become one of the few cloud providers that can actually bring on 5+ GW of compute capacity over the coming years.
I'd even go as far as saying that this structural advantage is the primary reason the $NVDA partnership came to be.
While $NVDA undoubtedly remains king of the hill, even they face a real dilemma that could cause cracks in their growth trajectory.
On the supply side, they have to come to terms with the fact that the gap between planned and realized data center capacity is widening, while the trend of new capacity coming online is actually decelerating.
This is the issue I just flagged, and it could act as a potential growth bottleneck for $NVDA, since fewer builds means fewer GPU sales.
Layered on top of this is the demand side. It's perfectly clear that demand for $NVDA's AI hardware remains insatiable. However, when looking closer, it's also apparent that competition is increasing.
Pretty much every hyperscaler is working on their custom chips (TPU, Trainium, Maia, MTIA), and not exclusively for internal use cases anymore, but increasingly to service the compute needs of large AI labs. Anthropic alone has signed deals worth billions for Google TPU and AWS Trainium capacity.
Then you obviously have the likes of AMD and Cerebras directly competing against the AI giant, trying to claim market share.
Taken in aggregate, these two issues could gradually lead to a growth problem for $NVDA if not addressed.
This is exactly where $IREN comes in.
They've got the largest secured power portfolio of any neo-cloud at 5.8 GW and growing fast, they develop 100% of their data centers themselves, and they're not building competing silicon.
That makes them the most reliable demand outlet $NVDA can partner with at scale.
The Sweetwater partnership, positioning the 2 GW campus as a "flagship DSX deployment," isn't $NVDA doing $IREN a favor. It's $NVDA solving its two biggest problems at once.
I'm sure you know the popular saying that "history never repeats, but often rhymes." I think today's neo-cloud market is somewhat similar to the dot com era search engine war.
Back then, the front-runners leading the race were AltaVista, Excite, and Yahoo, while Google was a latecomer that ultimately came out on top.
Today, the vast majority of investors in this space are declaring either $CRWV or $NBIS the obvious winners in the race to become the next hyperscaler.
However, I believe the real dark horse that the mainstream doesn't give much credit to is $IREN.
I believe they have all the ingredients to leapfrog every competitor in a short amount of time, in large part due to their structural advantages and pursuing the right long-term strategy from the get go.
The asset-light model, which both $CRWV and $NBIS have been leaning into, doesn't work well in capital-intensive industries, at least not over the long run.
It's somewhat of an oxymoron, since it seems intuitive that one way to circumvent some of the CapEx burden is to outsource from colocation providers.
Yet that approach leaves you with less control, less flexibility, and ultimately higher costs in aggregate in the form of operating expenses (the landlord also has to earn $).
I studied the Bitcoin mining industry for years, and the asset-light model was once a popular strategy around the 2021 bull market. While it proved to be a strong growth lever, it ultimately ended up being a disaster for anyone who adopted it.
Companies like $MARA are the perfect example.
$MARA heavily adopted the asset-light model and grew to become the largest $BTC miner, yet ended up as one of the most unprofitable public miners of all, leading to significant value destruction for shareholders over time.
Once it became obvious that asset-light wasn't a sustainable strategy, $MARA tried to pivot away from it by increasing self-deployments. But developing infrastructure in-house is a much harder discipline to master, and you don't simply switch into it overnight.
$IREN ultimately won the mining race last cycle by doing the exact opposite of $MARA from the start.
They developed all of their data center infrastructure in-house, backed by a seemingly unlimited pipeline of secured power, which ended up making them the fastest growing and most profitable miner of all time.
While the cloud sector has significant differences from the mining industry, the primary drawbacks of the asset-light model carry over.
Over time, it will become obvious to Wall Street and the broader market that this strategy sounds great in theory, but in practice leads to a stack of operational issues and severe margin compression.
Out of the two current front-runners, $CRWV and $NBIS, I think Nebius will do better. They've at least started moving toward a more diversified mix of self-owned capacity rather than purely relying on hosted colocation, which is the right direction even if they're still early in that pivot.
That said, as the $MARA example showed, developing in-house gigawatt projects at scale is not something you learn overnight.
It's clear to me that a player like $IREN, which has been building this discipline from day one, has the most realistic pathway toward sustained, profitable growth in this space.
In my view, $IREN is the dark horse that will end up winning the race. Thus overthinking today’s price action wouldn't do me any favors.
Cheers guys, have a great weekend! ✌️
SpaceX just paid for the https://t.co/KCtjqTdin6 acquisition many times over.
IREN has announced a planned 800MW data center campus in Bundey, South Australia.
This marks IREN’s first announced Australian data center project and one of the largest in the Asia-Pacific region announced to date.
Learn more: https://t.co/3bOYCUG3pk
$9.3 million into these $MU calls
$MU through the $1,000 barrier, next stop $1,100 - the momentum in Korea is pushing memory trade further overnight into US open and vice versa.
$MU following through as expected with sentiment strong
Might see $1000 this week..
Further confirmation that AI Infra is where the highest concentration r/r will be over next 12-24 months.
$NBIS are truly at the forefront of future technology vertical integration company structures - from picks and shovels through to application software layer - leveraging off their software talent from Yandex days, they’ve been smart in building Click House, which together with Nebius makes it a a real category leader and a future new state hyperscaler candidate.
The investment in Click House alone (28%) is a material re-rate catalyst beyond its core business.
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness LP disclosed beneficial ownership of 12.41M Class A shares of Nebius $NBIS, representing a 5.6% stake.
$22.6 million into these $MU calls
After months of waiting on $IREN 33FVB, it finally flipped green.
Bull Cycle is Back. Send it 🚀
There are people out there that think $DXYZ is a better proxy trade to $SPCX than $SATS.
With $SATS you get $SPCX exposure at a near 50% haircut. With $DXYZ you get it at a near 50% premium and offerings dumped on you weekly.
If $SPCX is valued at $1.75T–$2.25T, the 2.2% stake held by $SATS would be worth roughly $38.5B–$49.5B. On a per-share basis, that equates to about $132–$170.
In addition to its $SPCX stake, $SATS is also expected to receive cash proceeds in exchange for transferring spectrum to $T and $SPCX $23B from $T and $8.5B from $SPCX.
After these transactions, $SATS is expected to hold net cash of around $11.2B, which equates to roughly $39 per share. It is also important not to forget that $SATS is already operating profitably at the business level. In Q1 2026, operating income was $323M.
Conservatively, if we annualize that operating profit and apply an 8x multiple, the operating business could be worth around $10B. That translates to roughly $35 per share.
So the potential value of $SATS could be
$SPCX stake: $132–$170
Net cash: $39
Remaining operating business: $35
= $209–$244 per share
There is also the possibility that $SPCX’s market cap comes in higher than expected. If that happens, $SATS could have even more upside.
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