Dylan Wray

No matter the day I always wish I were back in Tempe

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

Officially "not that kind of doctor."

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

@TransportDems Bad position, coming from a Dem here. Jones Act should be repealed permanently.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

Extremely good to know that even the best of the best had no idea what the turnout environment would be. Important to keep these in mind when making assumptions for our own models.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

There are more election models than ever and with all kinds of features, but one thing I wish models would include is total turnout projections. Polls have likely voter screens and models are good at modeling relative turnout, but total turnout is also super important to explore.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

And here is the thing: The NYT is a state of the art pollster, and their turnout projections were very bad! For the 94 polls w/ turnout projections, all but one underestimated real turnout, and most estimates were huge underestimates. But this is important history to maintain.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

If I were in a leadership position of a minor state party I would simply not put my party in a position where our endorsed candidate in the primary has to campaign as a write in against the "sham" candidate who actually at least bothered to get on the ballot.

[Arizona Green Party 🌻 @AZGreenParty]

The Arizona Green Party is proud to announce its endorsements list of candidates for 2026.👇 In Arizona, a candidate’s party label on the ballot does not necessarily indicate membership in, or endorsement by, that party. Our endorsement list is meant to clarify that distinction.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

Maybe this is controversial, but IMO the progressive strategy for winning the Democratic nomination in future presidential elections (2028 or otherwise) should focus on winning a majority amongst the Democratic primary electorate rather than relying on a split vote.

[Robert Costa @costareports]

I've heard privately from some Sen. Sanders allies that they'd like to see him consider a run in '28 even though he is 84, believing his movement, especially in a crowded primary, could win him the nom...

Sanders today on that idea...
https://t.co/qdk2k39zyp

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

@_fat_ugly_rat_ In South Dakota if an election is uncontested there is simply no election, very possible that since all D statewide races were uncontested and R primaries are closed there may have just been no way for most Dems to participate in the primary.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

@DrewSav Low level conspiracy theory about the Kean absence is that maybe he's not actually sick and he just intended to stay out a couple weeks to avoid votes on Iran/the reconciliation bill but both of those have taken months longer than he expected.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

Wilson's saving grace for the HOF is that the 2006-2016 draft classes produced zero HOF QB locks, unless Stafford wins another SB and/or MVP this year. Best chances for HOF in that era probably goes Stafford > Wilson > Ryan, nobody else even has a shot tbh.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

Russell Wilson is not a HOF lock, but retiring this year (and therefore having at least one year of eligibility before Rodgers and Stafford) could actually help his chances a lot.

[NFL @NFL]

Russell Wilson announces he is joining CBS Sports after 14 NFL seasons.

Super Bowl XLVIII Champion
2x NFC Champion
10x Pro Bowls
2020 WPMOY
46,966 passing yards (16th all time)

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

I also think WI is a state that could sneakily end up not being that competitive, depending on the D nominee. Barnes is perfectly acceptable as a nominee and Tiffany is no Scott Walker, Dems could significantly improve vs 2018/2022.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

Republicans could be sleepwalking into their worst combined gov performance in the Midwest ever. They may lose IL, MN, and PA each by >20. MI and maybe even IA may end up not being competitive. TBD on WI's competitiveness but OH may be the only chance to prevent a sweep.

[Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17]

Republicans get the wrong Zach in Iowa.

Zach Wahls loses to Josh Turek on the Democratic side, and far-right candidate Zach Lahn beats incumbent congressman Randy Feenstra, despite Feenstra having a Trump endorsement.

Worst two outcomes Republicans could have hoped for. Yikes.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

@BruneElections I mean.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

@lxeagle17 What was your vote method? Aka are you mailing your ballot today.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

@baseballot Its not the best and also unfortunately is in the worst possible part of downtown Phoenix lol.

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

@lxeagle17 @SplitTicket_ How do you approach candidate WAR for candidates who have only run in state races before (e.g. Paxton)? Treated any differently than results from past federal races?

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

TX 2018 and AK/IA 2020 had barely even registered as competitive by May of those years, and now Dems are currently leading in TX/AK and polling okay in IA. Polling isnt everything, but it does mean something!

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

The six potential Dem pickups (NC/ME/AK/TX/OH/IA) are all states that Dems seriously contested this past decade but came up short, and in all cases except OH Dems are actually polling way better this year compared to May of the analogous election in previous years.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Texas Public Opinion Research/Slingshot Strategies poll | 5/27-5/28 LV

Texas statewide races 2026

US Senate
🟦James Talarico 47%
🟥Ken Paxton 44%
——
Governor
🟥Greg Abbott 46% (incumbent)
🟦Gina Hinojosa 41%
——
Attorney General
🟥Mayes Middleton 44%
🟦Nathan Johnson 39%

Link to poll: https://t.co/0IHzIC9cCf

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

@EricMGarcia https://t.co/Kje4DHt2Qq

[Dylan Wray @DillonRae96]

People are saying claiming that Trump's approval is below water on every issue, but I have yet to see pollsters ask about his actual best issues: 1) Owning the Libs and 2) Making Democrats pay.