If you are truly bullish on AI you must also accept the fact that capital is going to accrue more value than labor from here on out.
This is after a quarter century of the working class getting a smaller and smaller share of the pie.
The social dynamics this creates all but guarantees capital gains tax is going to go much higher and most likely even higher than income tax rates over the next 25 years.
$SIVE fell today on an EFN article claiming the photonics chief sold his entire holding — presented as alarming insider panic. Here is what I think the article can have missed.
Andrew McKee founded CST now Sivers Photonics in 1999— 27 years ago. He built the photonics business from scratch. Earlier this year Alex McCann appeared publicly as the new MD of Sivers Photonics in April/May communications. McKee moved totechnology role only. His Q1 and Q2 share sales seems to align with this transition and was probably sold (if sold at all in full) parts of it even before share re-rating.
My take is that is was done probably with no negative view on the company's prospects. A man monetizing his life's work after almost 30 years of building a company is not insider panic. IMO this is probably more a career ending on his own terms. He deserves it for sure. Even if he sold over 6 months, IMO this is still not a major negative signal.
Three things EFN did not check: A) Holdings has known blind spots — transfers to holding companies, ISK structures and family vehicles are not captured. Did anyone verify McKee holds zero shares in any structure? B) One option program was realized in early July. If McKee sold old shares to participate that is not a major negative signal (he is not insider hence would not report sell or buy) — Holdings would not show this yet since it was in early July C) The role change probably happened before most shares was sold, Context matters.
Later in the afternoon two board members has publicly shared insider purchases.
Todd Thomson — board member, former Citigroup CFO, — bought 535,000 SEK on-market today at 42.80 SEK into the panic. Karin Raj bought 460,000 SEK at 34.68 SEK — the intraday low. Both reported to FI same day. People with more information about the full picture, that also had been part of approving today clarifications around the Q-reports and US Nasdaq listing.
Update Vikram CEO have also aquired shares for approximately 1.000.000 SEK
Summing up: Journalism created the dip. Insiders bought it.
What's X view on today?
This is my current active stock portfolio allocations.
I am still quite heavy in cash and my Beta is 1.87.
Dips will be bought aggressively.
NFA.
$PENG $AAOI $OUST $SIVE
I see so much fear around $SIVE currently…
People are panic selling after a 70% drop from the top.
They are selling now.
Not at 80SEK, not at 70 SEK, not at 60SEK
But today at 35SEK…
IMO this is a capitulation and I doubled my position today at 35.6SEK.
NFA.
DID YOU LISTEN ANON?
Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration.
$SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform.
For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH.
This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history.
As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route.
I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue.
To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.
Insider selling is not always because of lack of belief in the company.
Personal plans, family, age, personality etc play a huge role in this type of scenarios.
I can literally find 100’s of insider selling from C suite executives of Fortune 500 companies before their stock exploded to the upside.
Let’s stick to the fundamentals of the company and the general data center market.
I am an $OUST bull but it is currently trading at 20X sales…
It is pretty expensive even if they grow at 40-50% per year for the next 2-3 years.
For that reason I sold 50% of my position for a nice 62% gain in 3 weeks.
I am now actively looking for better risk reward opportunities.
$AAOI might be one of them…