luis

First in First out

[luis @Dirnchen]

$MSTR now confirmed, msci drops strategy when trading ends on november 30 and polymarket settled yes overnight

i said yesterday a yes was mostly baked in and after hours the stock just dipped a little

[luis @Dirnchen]

$MSTR msci shares its final drop list today under the new rule for firms that mostly hold assets. Polymarket has strategy on it at 84 percent with only about 46k traded if it gets named the selling is old news and if not shorts get caught

[luis @Dirnchen]

@polytutor makes sense. for now the map of where you can trade matters a lot more than how the case ends

[luis @Dirnchen]

the fear of missing the bottom is real too it feels like missing the top only quieter and it pushes people to buy far too early

[luis @Dirnchen]

@bull_genius makes sense. what would make you cancel it then, a daily candle closing above 80k or something else

[luis @Dirnchen]

@WhaleInsider not today though. the last difficulty jump came on october 29 while the upcoming adjustment in about two days is tracking near minus 7 percent because blocks are coming in slower

[luis @Dirnchen]

@AvalancheFDN will any of the six teams look at why avalanche tvl slid from about 2 point 3 billion last october to roughly 600m today, i would call that the most urgent open question

[luis @Dirnchen]

@ThinkingUSD @SoskaKyle makes sense then. being short a triple leveraged fund on most nights means the daily rebalance works for you, not against you

[luis @Dirnchen]

@BullTheoryio polymarket sees it very differently, it gives only about 16 percent to a first day close above 1 point 75 trillion and close to 60 percent to under 1 point 5

[luis @Dirnchen]

@Nasdaq when does the overnight session actually reach normal retail brokers, that date decides how always on this really feels for most people

[luis @Dirnchen]

@PeterSchiff which source is behind the number for investor losses

nobody i know of has added up what buyers really lost on that coin

[luis @Dirnchen]

@R89Capital if this exit runs for a decade where does the money go. stocks, treasuries or only a handful of coins with real buyers

[luis @Dirnchen]

@OnchainLens @AguilaTrades check the equity too. that account has roughly 327k left against a short of almost 18m so a move of about 0 point 6 percent ends it

[luis @Dirnchen]

@Jeremybtc the timing itself is routine. us applications get published 18 months after filing and april 29 2025 plus 18 months is the 29th of october this year

[luis @Dirnchen]

@karlbooklover would be a fun one to track, even a simple sheet with time, size and the move one hour later would say a lot

[luis @Dirnchen]

@scottmelker the coins live on chain so nothing gets lost while you still hold the phrase

but this is exactly when fake migration sites and dms start showing up

[luis @Dirnchen]

@TateTheTalisman handwritten letters still hit different in 2026, nobody puts that much effort into a post

[luis @Dirnchen]

@coinglass_com bids that far away are cheap to cancel. if they survive a move to 70k i start to believe them

[luis @Dirnchen]

@hosseeb the honeypot part worries me most because one person with key access who gets turned can hurt a firm worse than a crash