Distressed DIP

rx

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@justfactstruth Any visibility into their more recent order sizes? Larger orders could explain margin pressure but not if it’s higher volume of smaller orders

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@justfactstruth Totally get sacrificing margins for market share – just more concerned about compressed margins being structural, maybe due to inventory roll off.

Big fan of your write ups btw! I’m bullish on FTAI and it’s one of my largest positions

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@Thassico Short it pussy

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@FishtownCap @iDanielTran Fair enough. Also bullish on the space here and agree with most of your picks! This is an interesting one for sure, excited to see how it plays out

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@FishtownCap @iDanielTran Going with those numbers that’s still 400mm incremental to 1.5b. Low teens forward 27 multiples more than attractive when you get all the catalysts for free

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@FishtownCap @iDanielTran 25mw turbines go for 25-40mm. 100 units at 40% margin (aero products as a comp assuming no margin expression) gets you 1BN incremental. Aero derivatives isn’t a new concept and has worked in the industry so not sure what gives you the confidence that this won’t work

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@FishtownCap @iDanielTran FTAI power alone can be incremental 1BN EBITDA business. Factor that in 27-28 gets you very reasonable multiples even at these level ignoring PMA and SCI impacts

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@FishtownCap @iDanielTran Cheap on EBITDA. A business growing at this speed doesn’t trade on PE…

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@FishtownCap @iDanielTran Disagree here. This is a broader rerating of the business, FTAI power just the catalyst that drove the rerating

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@MattooShashank Ppl pop

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@justfactstruth 175 not 75. Wondering why it’s still mildly miss priced when sellside understands it well…

[Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort]

Narrative warfare.

China is nowhere close to giving up on its aspirations to take Taiwan or slow its military buildup.

China also has a massive hole in its balance sheet due to the real estate bust that it needs to paper over with an aggressive trade surplus.

So Trump knows that the basic requirements to de-escalate things with Xi are impossible.

And the Washington consensus won’t shift until China is no longer perceived as a threat to U.S. hegemony.

A lot of people are confused by my assertion that Trump is unable or unwilling to just “kick the can down the road” and take an easy win.

You see China is on a shot-clock for taking Taiwan. Not just because of demographics or Xi’s personal aspirations but because the domestic demand picture is incredibly ugly.

CCP legitimacy rests on economic growth and increasingly economic growth requires an export market.

The problem is the West is increasingly tapped out from a consumption standpoint.

And so China will increasingly have to coerce its Asian neighbors to accept its exports and that requires having a credible military stick.

They tried bribes and that flopped.

And they won’t be taken seriously as a regional power until they’ve broken past the first island chain.

Now the problem is while Trump talks up Xi in glowing terms he is actively working to reduce Chinas ability to dump its exports on the U.S.

The problem is those exports are running out of places to go. And so in the next few months when transshipments start to be enforced it’s going to send the Chinese economy into a tailspin.

When that happens China will react badly. Because it will have to. Because it has a giant hole that it can’t afford to expose.

Now if the status quo is maintained and transshipments aren’t enforced then instead it will be a slow burn.

Same hole but now with a fig leaf covering it temporarily. But sometime during trumps administration the Chinese military buildup will have reached the critical threshold where they are confident they can take and hold Taiwan.

And on that day they will do so. Because they need to.

And the day that happens in a scenario where Trump didn’t enforce transshipments because he didn’t want to hurt American consumers or the American stock market…ask yourself what happens?

What happens the day the U.S. military was impotent to defend against Taiwan?

Well first off Japan, Australia, Korea, the Philippines will all race for nukes.

But they’ll also dump American treasuries.

The U.S. stock market prob drops 30%

The U.S. consumer likely still hurts because the state dept will try to enforce some type of sanction on China.

But when we turn to our European allies they well put out a strongly worded letter about democracy and then tell us to fuck off.

And then every central bank is going to race to stock up on gold and dump American assets.

So to summarize Trump doesn’t have the luxury of ignoring the China-hegemony dilemma.

He can only act preemptively or go down as the worst president in American history.

The one that cost the U.S. its hegemonic status.

If you don’t think the “Washington consensus” hasn’t thought about most of what I just wrote you haven’t spent enough time watching their roundtables and panels.

We are still early.

Timing is hard to guess but there is a shot-clock.

🫡

[Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort]

The mistake being made is assuming fear will lead to silence & obedience.

That is not human nature.

It leads to rage & steely resolve to make hard choices.

Dont mistake restraint for weakness.

Yes in large cities people have been trained to look away and stay silent instead of loudly intervening.

But one day soon you’ll wake up and the Overton window will have shifted, the preference cascade will have started and the genie will be out of the bottle.

Those seemingly meek people will vote people in who are far more aggressive than the those who voted behind the privacy of a booth.

Indoctrination is powerful but it is also fragile.

For the party that prides itself in prioritizing study of the humanities there seems to be a suicidal will to re-run all of histories worst mistakes.

[Distressed DIP @Distressed_DIP]

@SaulGoodbot Direct listing is a form of IPO…

[Restructuring__ @Restructuring__]

Read this piece by Steve Jobs every single day

[Porter Collins @Seawolfcap]

It's been messy journey since we bought $FTAI post the short report in January and pitched it on CNBC, but it shows that over the longer run the market is still in fact a weighing machine. The earnings, cash flows and a much better entry point thanks to the shorts won out.

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI
-2Q revenues 676mm vs 545mm consensus
-EPS $1.58 vs $1.34 Consensus
-1H Modules 322.....2Q up 33% vs 1Q 25
-2H Module guide now 428...up another 33% from 1H25
-FY25 Free Cash Flow target now $750mm from 650
-Aero prod EBITDA 2Q $165mm... +26% Q/Q
-Leasing EBITDA 2Q $200mm...+23% Q/Q
-Repaid 200mm Debt and still 309mm Cash on hand
-SCI now owns 145 aircraft worth 2.2B and on track to deploy $1.8B balance into additional 118 for 266 total

****************************************************************
Do yourself a favor and look at P/E and EBITDA/EV multiple for the comps and tell me where this should trade $TDG $HEI $SARO $GE $AL $AR

[litquidity @litcapital]

Elon’s biggest competitor: Ketamine

[Ichthyic Nidhogg @NastrondScourge]

Dude