Micron was one of Minervini's first buys coming out of the correction -- and a textbook VCP.
He breaks down the exact entry, the progressive adds, and why volume contraction with stacked moving averages was the signal to go.
The setup told the story. He just listened.
Today’s market strength was textbook. This is exactly what markets do during corrections when they get stretched to oversold levels. As I said just recently, "some of the biggest rallies occur during bear markets and corrections." Today was a perfect example.
Traders rushed in after headlines hit that Iran’s president signaled a willingness to end the conflict with the U.S. The Dow exploded higher by 1,125 points. But let’s not confuse cause and effect. The news may have been the trigger, but the market was already set up for a rally. It was oversold and primed. Now comes the part where discipline matters.
We ignore the first few days of a rally attempt. That’s potential noise. What matters is whether the market can follow through and whether leadership begins to emerge and proper setups develop.
Technically, this is a classic snapback: Indexes that broke below the 200-day are rallying back toward it, while Indexes that held the 200-day are bouncing off it. That’s typical countertrend behavior until proven otherwise.
Expect volatility to remain elevated. That’s not where low-risk money is made, but it's certainly where the risk is. Your job during corrections is simple: identify the stocks showing the best relative strength and the tightest price action. Those are your future leaders when the market finally turns.
On the macro side, nothing has been resolved. Higher crude prices are still a problem. Yesterday’s rally did nothing to materially bring down oil. The bigger issue is still in play and the jury still out. Oil at these levels feeds inflation, pressures growth, and gives the Fed a reason to stay on hold longer. Yields stay elevated in that environment.
To cut through all the noise, I look to the market itself, which has a much better track record of telling us the truth than the politicians, the analysts, the news, and the gurus.
The four steps of the bottoming process are:
1. Oversold – The difference between an ordinary pullback and an oversold condition starts with price, but it does not end there. Poor breadth and and a lack of volume confirmed follow through describe a one-sided market, and one not to trust.
2. Rally – Inevitably, the market bounces from its oversold condition. A high-quality rally is broad-based. A low-quality rally is defined by short covering and driven primarily by the stocks that have declined the most. Again, the character of the rally is important to distinguish. So far, we simply don't have enough data to make a confident determination, so patience is the watch word while we wait.
3. Retest – After the rally, there is almost always a retest. The popular averages approach, and in some cases breach, their oversold lows. The key to a successful retest is less selling pressure, such as fewer stocks below their moving averages, fewer stocks, sectors, and markets making new lows, less total volume, and less downside volume. If the retest fails, the process reverts and we generally start looking for divergences during lower lows. In the event of unexpected news, it is possible for the market to recover in a "V" fashion with no retest. In that case, we look at breadth confirmation and participation.
4. Breadth thrusts – In the final phase, not only do benchmark indices rally sharply with few pullbacks, but they do so with an extremely high percentage of stocks, sectors, and markets participating, or what technical analysts call breadth thrusts. In rare cases, the market has skipped step 3. With strong enough breadth, retests are not necessary. The Covid bottom is an example of a pretty powerful V-shaped recovery.
Bottom line:
This was an oversold rally, sparked by headlines—but not defined by them, and certainly not confirmation of a reliable bottom.
Now we watch:
--Quality of follow-through
--Emergence of leadership
--Market internals and model health
If the rally lacks quality, if economic pressure builds, or if leading stocks begin to deteriorate, then this remains what it likely is—a rally within a correction.
Stay objective. Let the market prove itself. If you are going to trade, do so incrementally.
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
I haven’t had a serious drawdown since the 1980s—just a few single-digit down years in over three decades. How? A deep respect for risk and unconditional patience.
A few key rules:
1. Always cut losses short - no big losses. no exceptions!
2. Only trade large on the heels of smaller trades working
3. Always trade progressively smaller when
trades aren't working
4. Never average down
5. Never let a good-size gain turn into a loss
6. No forced trades - no style drift
Trading is a mental game. You have to become the boss of your actions and reactions—which means becoming the boss of your emotions. Then, and only then, does discipline have the opportunity to develop… and consistency drive performance. Without discipline, even the best strategies are rendered useless.
The way to make big money in stocks is to be concentrated at the right time—when things are working and moving in your direction, and to trade light when trades aren't working. The key is to have a system or mechanism that forces you to trade your largest when you are trading your best, and smallest when you are trading your worst. Managing this dynamic is the most important protocol and skill to develop for becoming a champion trader and consistently delivering superior performance.
One of the greatest stock picking quotes of all time
“Take your losses quickly and your profits slowly because your objective is not just to be right but to make big money when you are right”
– William O’Neil
The rules I built a 41-year career and a personal fortune on.
1. always use a stop loss
2. define your stop before you enter a trade
3. never risk more than you expect to gain
4. nail down decent profits
5. never let a good size gain turn into a loss
6. never average down
7. never get bold when running cold
8. Have a system that trades the largest when you're trading your best and the smallest when you are trading your worst.
9. As a trade progresses and improves, so does your worst-case scenario
10. Avoid style drift
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
7 trading rules that changed my life
1. Always use a stop loss
2. Keep losses small in relation to gains
3. Never add to a loser
4. Sit out as long as it takes for stocks to meet my buy criteria
5. Never let a good size gain turn into a loss
6. Never get bold when running cold
7. Don't fight the trend
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
First you acquire knowledge
Then you gain experience
Then you develop skill
THEN you get the money!
Becoming a great trader is a process. The problem is, most people reverse the process and try to start at the end.
If you want to be a great trader, don't focus on money... focus on sticking to sound rules. Focus on perfecting a sound plan.
Can you religiously cut your losses, protect profits, avoid extended risky stocks, avoid dog shit beaten up stocks, sit out as long as it takes during volatile markets, and never add to a losing position??? Can you? No exceptions, ever!!!
WILL YOU???
When you can say yes to EVERY ONE of those questions EVERY DAY for AT LEAST ONE YEAR, then, and only then will the door to consistent superior performance open up for you. Until then, great performance will be nothing more than a hit or miss affair, and at some point you will think to yourself "maybe I don't have what it takes."
No! No!! No!!! You just haven't fully committed to a style and developed a sound plan. You just haven't abandoned all your bullshit excuses!
With one decision, in an instant that can all change today. Commit to trading like a champion. Decide to decide... today!
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
Stop making excuses for your poor performance. The stock market is not rigged! To the contrary, the stock market offers unlimited opportunity. It's like they say in poker "all you need is a chip and a chair." It's an environment where those who win get rewarded instantly, and those who have skill and discipline get rewarded consistently. I started with a few thousand dollars and built my fortune in the stock market... and you can too. But not until you shed ALL your excuses. First and foremost, the number one ingredient for success is personal responsibility. If you don't have that, then you're not going to make it. And yes, it will feel rigged... because you suck.
When you’re about to make a trade and even during a trade, make your decisions like it's the most important thing in the world. But when it’s behind you - win or lose - it’s behind you. No Monday Mornimg Quarterbacking; "I should" "I could have." Move on... Next! This mindset is really crucial because it frees you to fully commit to the next trade with the same intensity, prudence, and passion as did on the previous. And that's what being a professional is about... consistency.
My 6 key trading rules
1. Wait in cash for proper setups. How long? As long as it takes!
2. Always trade with a stop loss; keep all losses small
3. Never get bold when running cold
4. Nail down decent profits
5. Never let a good size gain turn into a loss
6. Never add to losers
If we look at the top of a mountain without thinking about the steps to get there, it could seem so daunting, we may not even try. But if we can see ourselves, step-by-step, climbing to the first base camp, we can see ourselves climbing to the second and so on. By putting one foot in front of the other and getting the process right, the result appears as a natural byproduct.
You can have knowledge, skill and even superior intellect, but without discipline - in trading - it all means nothing.
My advantages are:
I execute my plan flawlessly
I don't skip steps
I never chase or go on tilt
I always cut my losses short
I never add to losing positions
To achieve amazing results trading stocks, you must do a few things:
1. Be willing to sit out in cash for extended periods and never let the averages pressure you into forcing trades that don't meet your buy criteria.
2. Keep ALL LOSSES relatively small in relation to reward.
3. When trades are working, trade aggressively.
4. When trades are not working, back off significantly.
5. Never average down a loss.
6. Never let a big gain turn into a loss.
6. Always respect risk and put discipline over ego.
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
We are seeing is a fairly distinct character change in the way stocks are trading from breakout levels. You are likely experiencing and noticing the change in your own trading; less follow through, more squats, reversals and pivot failures, and a slight increase in portfolio heat. This is normal after a decent run.
Even if the indexes don't pullback or correct much, a rotational pullback or digestion period can have the same effect. The key is to not force trades and to NEVER get bold when trades are running cold.
Yesterday I nailed down a 52% gain and closed out my $IBIT trade originally entered on 2/7/24.
Many people confuse success in the market with being right vs. wrong or having strong opinions and sticking with them through thick and thin with no regard for risk, only the outcome.
Real money and longevity is achieved through consistent compounding, which is driven by process and discipline. I've known about Bitcoin for years, but didn't trade it much, until it recently met MY strict criteria. This is what success in the market is really all about; being able to let others have their turn while you wait for yours, and only taking those pitches that come across the plate in your personal sweet spot of the strike zone.
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn