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[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

FREE PLAY incoming, run up the LIKES and let me know if you're ready!

Preparing the write up now

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[🍷 @Dlogoat0]

@Mattplayerprops 💰

[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

🚨 𝗡𝗕𝗔 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬 🏀

Donovan Mitchell over 8.5 rebs+asts

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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis⤵️
Donovan Mitchell faces off against the Pistons here in game 4 at home, this spot holds nice value based on what happened in game 3 and the expected adjustments from DET.

In game 3 we saw Mitchell have his way offensively which was predominantly on driving to the rim. This is key because JB Bickerstaff pointed out how they need to limit that dribble penetration and that they were sticking to the Cavs shooters too tightly.

DET coach Bickerstaff mentioned the floor got too spaced for CLE which is where Donovan took advantage on drives. He talked after game 3 about the need to shrink the floor more, helping more and being able to recover and close out to shooters.

This is very relevant to how DET is likely to adjust heading into game 4, providing more help on Mitchell trying to limit his ability to break down 1v1 situations getting to the rim. The more gap help and not being glued to shooters on the perimeter should allow for more overall passing volume for Mitchell, specifically those kick-out looks to the perimeter.

We've already started to see DET give up more spot up looks to close the regular season, so this is an adjustment their used to. Bickerstaff also mentioned prior to game 3 how they were using Duren up higher in PnR actions to help limit Cavs guards ability to get to their spots easily.

As for the rebounding aspect, I like this alot as well since Allen/Mobley have to deal with boxing out Duren. Cavs guards who avoid having to defend high usage Cade can be available to help rebound. With Mitchell primarily on Duncan who is an off ball player, he can turn and help rebound uncontested when shots go up from others.

Donovan had an insane 17 reb chances last game and has averaged 5.8 rebs games with 32+ mins this playoffs. The rebounding has been solid for and now we're getting edge on his playmaking based on how DET is expected to adjust based on Bickerstaff press conferences.

He's over this 8.5 RA line in 15 of his last 18 playoff games with 32+ mins. Mitchell aversges 10.25 RA in playoff career with CLE.

Widely available on DFS sites and sportsbooks, best line currently -110.
#NBA #Gambling𝕏

[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

New week, new opportunity.

All plays have been posted in discord, should I drop a FREE PLAY today ⁉️👀

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Had a rare tough week for us last week, but the process remains the same as usual when I'm securing strong values daily. Looking to get back on track this week as we're overdue to avoid some brutal beats/hooks.

[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

Looking like we're still only about 33% to the LIKE goal, not much interest today or not showing up in the algorithm for whatever reason.

If you guys show the simple engagement getting the attached post to 125 likes, I'll drop the free play no problem 🤝

[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

RUN UP THIS POST to 125+ LIKES and I'll drop a Free Play later today 👀 🤝

Just posted everything in discord ✅

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[🍷 @Dlogoat0]

@Mattplayerprops 🤞🏾

[🍷 @Dlogoat0]

@Mattplayerprops 💰💰

[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

🚨 𝗡𝗕𝗔 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬 🏀

Josh Hart over 11.5 points

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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis⤵️
Josh Hart is in a very favorable spot for this matchup in round 2 of the playoffs vs PHI.

In the 1st round, Hart only covered this prop in 2 of the 6 games but for reference he still averaged 11.83 FG+FT attempts which is nice volume. This even includes the final 3 games all being large margin wins, 2 of them being massive blowouts.

In the competitive games vs ATL decided between 12 pts which were games 1, 2 and 3, we saw Josh Hart get 37, 35 and 40 minutes. That's great to see as I expect this series and especially game 1 to be nicely competitive, this should also of Hart to see upper 30's minutes. In the regular season with 34+ minutes and all NYK starters healthy, Hart averaged 15.7 pts.

I like for his productivity to improve from the 1st round as he wasn't being guarded by a center in that series. Here in round 2 vs 76ers, I believe there is a strong chance Joel Embiid spends alot of time as the primary defender on Hart. Joel doesn't want to get out to the perimeter and PHI will strategically sag off Hart and invite him to take shots.

The recipe opposing teams have started to figure out vs KAT is to put a forward to slow him down rather than a slow center, I could see Paul George spending time on KAT or a guy like Barlow off the bench.

Nick Nurse is also known for creating ganeplans and schemes to slow down opposing teams best players, Jalen Brunson could be forced to pass more than usual here. Josh would benefit from that and I expect him to be used in actions as a screener to roll to the rim or pop out for open 3's.

In the only H2H game vs PHI with Embiid in, Hart went for 10 pts but had great volume of 14 FG+FTA. In 2024 he faced PHI with Embiid playing 7 times with more than 30 minutes and averaged 16.43 pts on 16.86 FG+FTA going over in 6/7 including 5/6 in 2024 playoffs.

I expect him to get alot of open looks from the perimeter regardless of who is gaurding him and the opportunity to create/drive as a secondary scorer when the defense collapsed on Brunson.

Widely available on DFS sites and sportsbooks. I got this at -104 on Novig and was +100 on a few books at time of post in premium.
#Gambling𝕏 #NBA

[🍷 @Dlogoat0]

@Mattplayerprops Lets cashhh

[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

Who wants a FREE PLAY today!? Run up the LIKES/comments and let me know

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+12.05U last week, let's keep building 🚀

[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

Who wants a FREE PLAY, let me know by running up the LIKES & Comments. Show the interest and I'll look to get one posted later today!

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[Lev’s Locks @LevsLocks]

NBA POTD 🏀 If my parlay hits, I’ll send $50 via Cash App to one lucky person who likes and retweets this tweet! 🔥 Must like and retweet to enter. Let’s eat! 🍽️

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[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

🚨 𝗡𝗕𝗔 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬𝗢𝗙𝗙𝗦 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬 🏀

Isaiah Hartenstein over 11.5 rebs+asts

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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis⤵️
Isaiah Hartenstein and OKC look to complete the sweep vs Suns tonight. With the game being @ PHX and them playing for pride, I expect the game to be competitive enough here.

Jalen Williams remains out which is can allow for more involvement for I-Hart in the reb/ast categories. For some reference, with both SGA and JDub on the court we see Hartenstein has a 11.8 AST%. However with JDub off the court this season, Hartenstein has an 18.8 AST%.

He is used more as a hub of the offense at the top of the key when playing without one of their high usage handlers. Based on his rotation, I-Hart also gets all the non-Shai minutes as well which is important.

Being ultra conservative projecting Hartenstein for 24 minutes with 10 being without SGA and 14 with him still leads to this play holding value. Isaiah averages 6.2 rebs+asts per 10 mins without SGA+JDub and 6.4 RA per 14 mins with SGA on/JDub off. That's 12.6 RA per 24 mins without taking into account the advantageous matchup for a player like Hartenstein with PHX being a small team.

He played 23 minutes last game even while getting into some foul trouble and backup center Jaylin Williams playing good off the bench getting extended run. Even in the regular season we would routinely see Isaiah get mid to upper 20's mins in close games, so that should be no different here.

Good buy low off just 4 RA on 22 combined reb chances + potential asts in game 3. Hartenstein is over this line in 9/11 games this season with 21+ mins and 16-28 combined reb chances + potential asts (with JDub out but SGA, Chet, Jaylin healthy).

Isaiah covered with 12 RA in game 2 even with JDub in, and came up short in the 35 point blowout win in game 1. If we avoid a monumental blowout, I like the chances for him to cover.

Suns allow 45.7 rebs overall and 13.0 offensive rebs in playoffs, 4th and 2nd most respectively. In regular season PHX gave up 8th most offensive rebs, I-Hart gets 34% of his rebs as offensive.

With JDub out but SGA, chet, Ajay & Jaylin in with 21+ mins this season, he averages 14.4 rebs+asts in 26 mins per game (over in 10/13).

Widely available on DFS sites and sportsbooks. Best line currently +100 on Fanatics. -102 on Novig, -103 on DK.
#Gambling𝕏 #NBA

[🍷 @Dlogoat0]

@Mattplayerprops Lets cash 💰

[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

🚨 𝗡𝗕𝗔 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬 🏀

Cooper Flagg over 25.5 pts+asts

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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis⬇️
Cooper Flagg gets a very strong buy low spot tonight against the Hawks. Since his return from injury, Flagg has not only dealt with some blowouts but also tougher matchups.

In his first game back we saw the Mavs limit him to 26 mins. Then the next 2 he got up to 30 minutes in each despite huge blowout losses of 20 and 30 pts. There's definitely upside for mid 30's minutes if the game stays reasonably close.

So Cooper has gone under this mark in all 3 games since returning, but has still gotten 24, 22 and 23 PA even in less than ideal spots. Mins limit and 7/22 shooting vs ORL who ranks 6th best DEF rating in last 10 (7th best in restricted area). 20 pt blowout loss vs BOS who is 5th best DEF rating & 1st in restricted area, he went 7/23 FG's. 30 pt blowout loss vs TOR, who ranks top half in DEF rating in last 10 and Cooper shot 7/17.

The key here is the absolute massive usage he is seeing on top of now playing PG. Brandon Williams off bench backing up Flagg, Nembhard not in rotation and Tyus not on team, this means he has the ball in his hands even more. 6 asts in each game since back from injury.

Huge offensive role, Flagg has had a 40.3, 37.5 and 29.7 USG in these 3 games. Notably with a 26+% USG vs non top 10 paint defenses and 30+ mins, Flagg averages 35.1 pts+asts in 36.4 mins.

This is a great spot vs ATL who allows 10th most ppg and 8th most paint ppg. Hawks give up 3rd most made & 2nd most attempted FG's in restricted area, Flagg gets 66% of his made FG's in the paint, 37% in restricted area.

ATL and DAL both top 5 in pace, we have a huge 240.5 game total here. More possessions means more opportunities for stats. Now operating as PG and 33.1% USG in this situation, this line is far too low.

Great buy low off some poor FG% games in tough spots/blowouts. We can't expect that bad of shooting to be sustainable when Flagg shoots 47.2% on FG's this season.

Widely available on most DFS sites and sportsbooks, best line currently -114 on Fanduel.
#NBA #Gambling𝕏 #playerprops

[Serbian NBA Capper @serbianbacapper]

Please read this analysis again carefully, word by word until the very end. It’s probably one of the best game reads you’ll come across today — absolutely everything was nailed perfectly.

Minutes – 15 ✅
FGA – 5 ✅
Completely marginalized in the rotation ✅
The easiest under of the day – ✅✅✅

1u J.McCain (Thunder) UNDER 9.5 💎💎💎

Who tailed this one? 👀

[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

🚨 𝗡𝗕𝗔 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬 🏀

Jaylen Brown over 27.5 points

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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis⬇️
Jaylen Brown gets an excellent spot tonight to score vs the Hornets. We've seen CHA has been stingy to spot ups and catch & shoot opportunities which has led to opposing teams best player to get good volume.

On the season the Hornets give up the 4th fewest pts on 5th fewest possessions to spot up shooters and tied for the 10th fewest catch & shoot 3-PT attempts per game. Just in the last 10 games, 7th fewest C&S 3-PT attempts.

This is good because it should help limit volume from the role players/shooters like Hauser, Scheierman, and White.

This should also induce high volume for Brown as not allowing many catch & shoot looks is indicative of playing alot of 1v1 defense with minimal help.

CHA allows tied for the 5th highest effective FG% on pull-ups this season. In their last 10 games the Hornets give up the 3rd highest pull-up frequency in the league. This is ideal for JB as opposed to his teammates because he takes 10.5 pull-up FGA per game making up for 47% of his total shots (7th highest pull-up volume in the NBA).

They also gives up 4th most pts to PnR handler which is about 20% of Brown's production and the 10th most made FG's in restricted area (28% of JB's FG's.

When facing bottom half pull-up and  restricted area defense with 31+ mins and Pritchard+White in, Jaylen Brown averages 31.2 ppg going over this line in 10/11 games.

Similar style high USG players have had big games on high volume vs CHA:
Cade 33 pts (34 FG+FTA)
SGA 27 & 24 FG+FTA in 29 & 30 mins
Brunson 26 and 33 pts on 24 & 33 FG+FTA

Good buy low here after Jaylen has been under in 5 of last 7 (alot of blowouts), notably all games decided by double digits and 6 of them by 16+ pts. Should be a closer game here with a 6.5 pt spread where he is needed to be aggressive.

Widely available on DFS sites and sportsbooks. Line was -110 on books at time of post in Discord. Current best odds I'm seeing is -120 on Bet365.
#NBA #GamblingX #PlayerProps

[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

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[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

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