Thoughts

One of a Kind

[MARMOT @Web3Marmot]

🚨 SPACEX: THE BIGGEST EXIT LIQUIDITY IN HISTORY

SpaceX is up 70% from IPO.

Everyone is FOMOing hard.

But almost nobody is talking about the real reason.

Only 4% of shares are available to the public.

So they can paint any price they want.

The playbook never changes:

Hold 96% in your pocket.
Drop a few crumbs into the market.
Pull the chart wherever you want.

But now it’s wrapped as "the biggest IPO in history."

And Wall Street has already found their FORCED buyers.

On June 13, SPCX was rushed into the MSCI indices.

This means every passive fund worldwide is now obligated to buy it.

Not because they believe in Elon Musk.

Because that's how the system works:

If it's in the index, you must buy it.

We're talking about $15–20 trillion in passive funds.

Massive forced demand + tiny float = perfect pump.

But the lock-ups are coming:

August: first 20% unlock
November: another big wave
Day 180: everything unlocked

In other words, early investors will exit in 1–2 months, not in 6 months like most people think.

And who will they sell to?

Retail and those funds that were just forced into the stock.

No one is arguing that SpaceX isn't a real company with a real future.

Moon bases, Mars, orbital data centers: all of this might happen.

But not anytime soon.

Right now, something else is happening.

The US stock market is going through a wild overvaluation of everything.

SpaceX is just the biggest example.

They are selling a dream about space today, at a price that won't make sense for another 15 to 20 years.

And as always, the crowd will buy the top just to fund the exit.

Remember, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including short BTC from $111K in October.

My next call will be the biggest one this cycle.

Turn on notifications. Most people will follow me too late.

[Liam Nissan™ @theliamnissan]

We're supposed to believe Daniel Cormier was hacked but then he regained access to the account two minutes later without any help from Twitter? Riiiiight. Eric Trump is as corrupt as his daddy

[MrBujok @BujokMr]

Unpopular opinion:

They slammed oil this hard because Warsh is going to give the markets a .25bps rate cut.

He can claim that oil prices due to the Iran war, is what brought about the elevated CPI & PPI numbers. But now that the war is coming to an end, and oil is down 33% off of its April peak, we should begin to see inflation coming down, and hence the interest rate cut has no risk of causing more inflation.

Gold is suggesting that’s the case imo

[Cenk Uygur @cenkuygur]

If the text of the leaked 14 point MOU is correct, it's a good deal. We get a firm committment that they can never have a nuclear weapon and they open the Strait of Hormuz and we give them back their money that we froze and the Gulf countries give them some, too. Let's come home!

[Bark @barkmeta]

Realizing SpaceX is pumping because 96% of the stock is locked and nobody can actually sell

[Toby Rogers @uTobian]

I hope everyone understands that the $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran will go to Trump-aligned contractors who will give a cut to the big guy, pocket the rest, and build nothing. The Iran war was another massive Trump grift.

[Tim Hannan @TimHannan]

The President’s son was looking to bet on fixed fights and then made a ridiculous claim to try and cover it up and everyone just shrugged. We are morally broken.

[QE Infinity @StealthQE4]

I realize that the stock market is not the economy.

However, I’ve never seen a period of time where the market was so high with so many people struggling and sinking financially.

Many people can’t even afford McDonald’s anymore.

The wealth disparity rn is deeply disturbing.

[Derrick Evans @DerrickEvans4WV]

Sean Strickland was arrested before anyone on the Epstein List.

Let that sink in.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

World central banks are incredibly bullish on gold:

45% of central banks said they plan to buy gold over the next 12 months, the highest reading on record, according to the World Gold Council survey of 74 central banks.

This percentage has more than doubled since 2020 and marks the 3rd consecutive annual increase.

Emerging market and developing economy central banks led the increase, with a record ~53% of this group planning to add gold, up from 48% last year.

Overall, 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, the 2nd-highest reading on record.

Central banks are buying the gold dip.

[Alex Mason 👁△ @AlexMasonCrypto]

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS FRIDAY

Everyone thought the biggest risk was SpaceX IPO day.

Wrong.

And if you think SpaceX is going higher, you are completely wrong.

SpaceX’s IPO launched at $135.

Now it’s trading around $230.

That is almost +70% from the IPO price in days.

And now the real problem begins.

At $230, SpaceX is being valued at almost $3.1 trillion.

On only $18.7 billion in annual revenue.

That is almost 200x sales.

After the IPO, everyone finally sees the same thing:

SpaceX demand is massive.

Retail wants more.

Funds want more.

Institutions want more.

But money does NOT appear from nowhere.

To buy more SpaceX, they need cash.

And to get cash, they sell what they already own.

Stocks. Crypto. AI names. High-beta tech.

Everything retail is already holding.

This is a liquidity black hole trading at almost 200x sales.

Now connect the dots:

The IPO already happened.

The first-day pump was already insane.

And now everyone who did NOT get enough allocation is heavily buying shares:

- LIGHT SHOCK: people sell small positions, stocks get hit first, crypto follows, then markets try to stabilize.

- HEAVIER SCENARIO: funds raise cash after the IPO, high-beta tech dumps, Bitcoin loses support, and retail gets trapped.

- WORST CASE: everyone rushes to buy at the same time, stocks dump hard, crypto gets hit first, and people get liquidated.

And now one of the most hyped IPOs in history is absorbing even more money at one of the most insane valuations ever seen.

Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000.

The next call will be even more important.

When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.

Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

[Thoughts @DocROBDDS]

@BullTheoryio I remember a few weeks back Trump said Iran will never close the strait of Hormuz again

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

The U.S. and Iran have a deal to work on a deal. During the next 60 days, there'll be a ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz will be open. In other words, the same situation we had before the war, only lives have been lost, oil is far more expensive, and about $100B has been spent.

[Toby Cunningham @sircryptotips]

Am I the only one just sitting here waiting for the next bomb to drop and this “peace deal” to collapse?

[lynk @lynk0x]

When you realize tech companies are just passing around billions in a circle to boost their stocks to all-time highs.

[Thoughts @DocROBDDS]

@Timcast Hope you’re investing the money you’re receiving for being a shill wisely because someday they will just kick you to the curb when they don’t need you and the money will stop coming in and meanwhile you’re true fans have left because they realized you’re a paid shill.

[Darth Powell @VladTheInflator]

and you think they're not rigging Wall Street?

[Dan Bilzerian @DanBilzerian]

The Pentagon just raised Israel’s espionage threat rating to the U.S. to “critical.”

Congress’s response? Expand intelligence sharing and make it harder for future presidents to scale it back.

Our government is more committed to advancing Israel’s interests than defending ours.

[Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) @adamscochran]

Claiming it is AI generated when the guy posted it himself, and the post had a URL that then said “deleted by the author” is next level stupid lol

[Jimmy Dore @jimmy_dore]

So he’s basically admitting that Trump got the EXACT same deal that he ripped up in his first term.

Absolute clown show. A war for absolutely nothing.

At least it’s gonna be funny watching the moronic influencers beclowning themselves pretending this war was necessary