Dominick

Former: Political Director @nationaldmo / Political Director & Senior Advisor @georgiademocrat / GA Political Director @joebiden
(He/Him)

[Dominick @Dominick__P]

Republicans in Georgia lost in 2020, in large part, because they couldn't lie their way out of the failures and racism of Trump, Perdue, Loeffler, etc. They had no message and no substance beyond repeating the word "radical" over and over again. (1)

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING IN THE STOCK MARKET.

The S&P 500 is near all time highs, but beneath the surface, a completely different market is forming.

Almost half of S&P 500 stocks now are moving differently from the overall market.

Goldman says this kind of divergence looks very similar to the Tech Bubble.

The biggest reason is market concentration. The 10 largest stocks now make up around 40% of the S&P 500, and many of them are riding the AI boom.

Because these companies are so large, they can keep pushing the entire index higher even when a large part of the market is struggling.

Meanwhile, the rest of the market is dealing with rising bond yields, $100+ oil, a stronger dollar and higher borrowing costs.

These pressures are hitting companies that are more sensitive to rates, energy costs and the broader economy.

So the S&P 500 being near record highs doesn't mean everything underneath is doing well.

A small group of massive companies is making the overall market look much stronger than many stocks actually are.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The US Dollar has lost -23% of its purchasing power since 2020.

In other words, if your assets are up +30% since 2020, you have effectively just broken even in real terms.

Inflation has now been above the Fed's 2% target for 60-straight months, and the bond market knows this.

Own assets or be left behind.

[Trip Gabriel @tripgabriel]

The NYT confirms Haaretz's report that Benjamin Netanyahu was secretly warned before Oct. 7, 2023 by the Emirati president that Hamas planned a major attack, per 2 sources

The warning was not shared with Israeli security chiefs, per 5 ex-officials

https://t.co/BCnwcyzg8C

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: GOP on track to lose House majority as 15 race ratings shift towards Dems. Full analysis by @ercovey: https://t.co/2r1bmKg5by

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Japan

Japan's 30-Year Yield just jumped to its highest level in history 📈 🤯 👀

[Morning Brew ☕️ @MorningBrew]

Price history of standard (ad-free) streaming plans, since launch:

Netflix (2010)
• $7.99 --> $19.99 (+150%)
• Increases in 3 of last 5 years

Hulu (2015)
• $11.99 --> $21.49 (+80%)
• Increases in 4 of last 5 years

Apple TV (2019)
• $4.99 --> $14.99 (+200%)
• Increases in each of last 4 years

Disney+ (2019)
• $6.99 --> $21.49 (+207%)
• Increases annually since 2021

HBO Max (2020)
• $14.99 --> $18.49 (+23%)
• Increases in 3 of last 4 years

Peacock (2020)
• $9.99 --> $19.99 (+100%)
• Increases in each of last 4 years

Paramount+ (2021)
• $9.99 --> $13.99 (+40%)
• Increases in 3 of last 4 years

[Thomas Peters @AmericanPapist]

Does political texting work?

In 2026, that's a $750,000,000 question.

@xscreenmedia recently tested persuasion texting and came to many of the same conclusions we've found to be true over the past 8 years:

They texted 50,000 voters (low-turnout Republicans and high-turnout Persuadable voters), and measured against the control audience:
--"Ad recall in the test market increased by 22 points, a 16-point difference over the control market"
--Young voters (who are the hardest to reach with traditional channels) "were the most likely to recall the messaging"
--frequency matters! "people who had seen our ad six or more times viewed the issue positively, while the rest of the electorate viewed it very negatively"
--Voters who received texts dramatically changed their voting preference (see attached graphic)

===

So there you have it (again). Texting works (when done right).

[Jonathan Martin @jmart]

NC and GA fading >>>

GOP operatives are already eyeing cutbacks in their spending against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), I’m told by well-placed party sources, and by October may have to cede North Carolina entirely and hand over a Republican-held seat. Internal Republican polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper leading that race by double digits, a margin that can perhaps be halved but not erased.

In both Southern states, Republican officials increasingly believe they’re wasting their money, and it would be better spent on flipping Democratic Senate seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, where their candidates are stronger and Democrats are more vulnerable.

Fittingly. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) hosted a fundraiser at a private home in Dallas Monday night, featuring former president George W. Bush, that included Rogers and John Sununu — the GOP nominees in Michigan and New Hampshire — but not the party’s nominees in North Carolina and Georgia.

[Ben Wieder @benbwieder]

FL GOP Gov. candidate Byron Donalds has stripped references to Donald Trump on his campaign website, via @claireheddles https://t.co/o8YmGgx3DM

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

Patriots officially placed OL Mike Onwenu on injured reserve.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: The Trump administration announces state-run media, similar to Russia and North Korea, launching "Trump TV," its own 24/7 streaming channel of the administration's remarks and events, going live tonight at 7 PM and claiming "just the news that matters most - straight from the Trump Administration."

This is the first time in US history an American president has launched a formal state-media channel in his own name.

It comes 3 days after the White House banned CNN, MS NOW and Politico, and hours after the five-network TV pool stopped covering Trump's events in response, leaving a White House event today with video but no sound. The White House is now broadcasting the president itself.

[Molly Jong-Fast @MollyJongFast]

The cryptocurrency industry, furious at Democrats for blocking the passage of a major business-friendly bill last week, is beginning to wage war on the party’s midterm candidates.
The industry’s main super PAC, Fairshake, which is backed by some of the richest people in Silicon Valley, is starting to unspool a planned $30 million advertising campaign against former Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, a Democrat running again for the chamber, the group told The New York Times.

[George Conway ⚖️🇺🇸 @gtconway3d]

“The temperature on the artificial turf at Nissan Stadium reached 157F (69.4C), according to the Fox broadcast.

“‘It was hot as shit, everybody was as hot as shit,’ Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni said after his team’s 24-20 win. ‘I didn’t play a snap and I had to get an IV.’

“The Fox broadcast showed water being poured on players’ shoes to keep them cool, and [EaglesOG] Cam Jurgens said he had to replace his cleats several times because they melted.”

https://t.co/4hQ6eQctfK

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Diesel hits $6.50/gallon for the first time in history 📈 📈

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇫🇷 11% of gas stations in France are now out of gas or diesel.

• Diesel has surged to €2.38 per liter, putting it within 1% of a record high.

• French President Emmanuel Macron called an emergency meeting to address the situation.

• The French government is preparing financial assistance for drivers who travel long distances.

[Tom Kloza @TomKloza]

The next 24 hours will see staggering increases at the pump for both gasoline & diesel. Fuel margins have yet to catch up with previous wholesale hikes. Watch for huge increases in Great Lakes and Rocky Mountain states in particular.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Saudi Aramco has cancelled all of its September European crude oil allocations and is scrapping every cargo slated for late-September loading onward, with a European lifter saying no Saudi oil cargoes at all until November, per initial reports citing oil trading firm Onyx and market sources.

That takes the world's largest exporter out of the European market for the rest of September and all of October, a de facto force majeure on Saudi crude to Europe from the 3rd largest energy producer in the world.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the fuel crisis oil executives warned would follow a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has now officially arrived, with the mechanisms that mitigated price and supply risk having "largely now played out" and the system holding nowhere near the buffers it had when the war began, as Trump officials continue to claim the disruption is temporary, per WSJ.

Wirth says he has not spoken to Trump since August 3, when Trump attacked him on Truth Social for not crediting the administration and demanded oil companies bring retail prices "DOWN, NOW!"

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Jet fuel prices in the US surge to $4.35/gallon, now up +61% over the last 10 weeks.

Over the last week alone, jet fuel prices have risen by +10% as US oil prices continue to push above $100/barrel.

As a result, US airline fares jumped +23% year-over-year in August, with much of the recent crude oil rally not yet reflected in the data.

We could see a +30% surge in airline fares in September CPI.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The 10Y Note Yield officially rises above 5.00% for the first time since October 2023.

US mortgage rates are back above 7%.