doug rivers

absent-minded professor, some-time entrepreneur, pollster and econometrician

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

Then maybe you don’t really need the numbers.

[Matt Ashby @LessCrime]

@doug_rivers Absolutely there’s a need for the bars: it’s much easier to see the relative size of the differences between numbers represented as bars than solely as numbers in a table. The example at https://t.co/tldb8X4Y8A illustrates the difference well:

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

Once you’ve added the numbers, is there really any need for the bars? It’s just a table with some decoration.

[Albert Rapp @rappa753]

Are there reasons to prefer grid lines in a bar chart over direct labels? 🤔

LEFT: Grid
RIGHT: Direct labels

I have the feeling that the translation to actual numbers is much harder with grid lines.

And once the labels are added, there's really no use for grid lines. 😅

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

I dunno. Aren’t LPs the customers for VCs?

[Gil Dibner @gdibner]

VCs ultimately fail when they focus on talking up to LPs instead of listening to and building for founders. Founders fail when they focus on talking up to VCs instead of listening to and building for customers. Keep your ears to the ground. Listen. Build. Create value.

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

This would be a bonanza for estimating the returns to schooling.

[Daron Acemoglu @DAcemogluMIT]

Remaining slots are filled from those in group 2 on the basis of lotteries. The justification is that there aren’t big differences between those in group 2 in terms of academic preparation, and any quantitative scores are imperfect and noisy anyways.

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

Seems like the authors of the measure didn’t understand marginal tax rates, which exceeded 100% between 4-4.2M and 10-10.15M.

[Tim Groseclose @Tim_Groseclose]

Proponents of the L.A. "mansion tax" hoped it would generate $900 million a year. In the first two months since it was implemented, it generated $15.5 million.

https://t.co/jmekABb4qS

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

Could be R over Stata

[Dirk Eddelbuettel @eddelbuettel]

@doug_rivers Did anybody do a 'value over replacement' analysis for the Nate to Elliott swap?

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

538 is alive (and better)!

[G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris]

538 has upgraded polling averages!

All of our models, including for the 2024 GOP primary, Biden & Harris job approval, and many candidates’ favorability ratings, update automatically on the polls page: https://t.co/4mBIRY19dR

And here’s our methodology: https://t.co/KUgLq00Dq0

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

Hey Tim, are you saying Republicans have turned the House into a faculty senate instead of a serious legislature? The debt ceiling debate was pretty good, but I’m eagerly awaiting the impeachment vote.

[Tim Groseclose @Tim_Groseclose]

House Democrats act more like college, ethnic-studies students than serious lawmakers.

https://t.co/3cWAQbYlUT

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

Can’t you respond directly using the chip Bill Gates implanted in your brain?

[Joe Rogan @joerogan]

This is a non answer. I challenged you publicly because you publicly quote tweeted and agreed with that dogshit vice article. If you’re really serious about what you stand for, you now have a massive opportunity for a debate that will reach the largest audience a discussion like this has ever had. If you think someone else is better qualified, suggest that person.

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

My favorite is from Gayle’s Bakery in Capitola. https://t.co/8rtAv5ha4J

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

??

[David Shor @davidshor]

@SolomonMg @JustaNormalDino @RexDouglass I think it’s really mostly a function of complex processes being able to be modeled well with linear models due to the central limit theorem

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

@gelliottmorris Congratulations, Elliott!

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

@Apoorva__Lal @mikedecr Tidylog?

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

Well worth reading for those unhappy with the current state of affairs here

[Sol Messing @SolomonMg]

As I threatened to do earlier, I wrote about the structure of BlueSky & implications for content moderation, recommender systems, monetization & its future. It starts with Jack. Everyone at Twitter--esp Jack--has known this could replace Twitter.

[Cowles Foundation @YaleCowles]

Are speculators driving up oil prices? Should we raise energy prices to slow global warming?

New work compares answers from economic experts and the public, by William Nordhaus & @doug_rivers: https://t.co/UewEChJirH

[Opinion Today @OpinionToday]

Are speculators driving up oil prices? Should we raise energy prices to slow global warming? The present study takes a small number of such questions and compares the views of economic experts with those of the public. (William D. Nordhaus & @doug_rivers) https://t.co/813BzDPSJI

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

@FrnkNlsn For a peek into what you can do without smoothness using geometric measure theory https://t.co/XLsvRksNkV

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

Pro tip: “populated areas” are a good place to get votes

[umichvoter @umichvoter]

Michigan GOP “we’ve got some problems in populated areas”

[doug rivers @doug_rivers]

Not so crazy after all.

[Will Jordan @williamjordann]

https://t.co/ZiFvKBRvqR

[Opinion Today @OpinionToday]

Which issues do Americans think the national media gives too much and not enough attention to? (@taylor_orth @CarlBialik @yougovamerica) More: https://t.co/UEZuT8C9S5