Dragon Field

Change is the only constant in life and in investing. Be flexible and have a beginner's mind. Don't pretend you can be Warren Buffett because you can't.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@hkuppy When a ram is stuck with its horns in a hedge, it cannot go forward, and it cannot go backward. Yi Ching said this ~2,500 years ago.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

An interesting data point. The big boys are getting nervous about tech valuation and AI CapEx, and they are using put options for protection. The problem is that, when so many people are doing it, it might pre-emptively nullify the very thing that the protections are supposed to prevent.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

https://t.co/XHcfvHopHP

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

Option series Part 3 is out, Options for Speculation and Reflexivity, using $NU as the example. Link below.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@HedgieMarkets This probably explains a lot of the weakness in Chinese consumption. Unfortunately, the US and other countries are also going down this direction. Good for capital, bad for the middle class.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@LukeGromen It's pretty amazing that the US could use the USD and SWIFT to dictate to the whole world for almost 50 years, while the real production capacity has been declining.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@gave_vincent https://t.co/1HCiVnEMNw

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@KELMAND1 可能只有中国人才知道什么叫做“丧权辱国”。MAGA 们说不定还要为此庆祝一下呢？🎉🍾🎊😉

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@KELMAND1 可能只有中国人才知道什么叫做“丧权辱国”。MAGA 们说不定还要为此庆祝一下呢？🎉🍾🎊😉

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

It took a while. But once the Ram gives up, he will be released. https://t.co/OVL3fUGl6P

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@hkuppy When a ram is stuck with its horns in a hedge, it cannot go forward, and it cannot go backward. Yi Ching said this ~2,500 years ago.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@NBCNews Well, once the Ram gives up, he will be released. https://t.co/Kt4ozcAbab

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@hkuppy When a ram is stuck with its horns in a hedge, it cannot go forward, and it cannot go backward. Yi Ching said this ~2,500 years ago.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

This RIA short article is a good reminder that sometimes a prevailing narrative can take price to a level that is too far from the underlying logic (fundamentals); therefore, when a new and fresher narrative is needed to sustain the rally, it might do the opposite. https://t.co/uKhKbcLsOE

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

Many investors think they should avoid options because Warren Buffett said derivatives are "financial weapons of mass destruction".
They don't know that Warren Buffett sold index put options for a "worst-case" loss of $40B to collect $4.9B premium, prior to the GFC.

[The Babylon Bibi @TheBabylonBibi]

Only one man could pull this off!

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

$WEAT is traded surprisingly strongly today. Looks like it's no longer a "war premium" trade, but a fundamental one now.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

This needs to be watched closely. 👀

[BreakWave @DryBulkETF]

SOH is open: probably everyone that wants to get out will.
However, most owners will refrain from going in the AG as the risk of relapse and getting stuck in a war zone is high.
This is going to be a very long process

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@Steveflowers88 Hard to say. Some IMRs may cause serious consequences if delayed; therefore, one must catch up. Some might be done because it's on the schedule. A delay there would result in a permanent loss of revenue.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

Interesting. Postponing maintenance to pump as much oil as they can...I guess this might impact Astead Technology IMR revenue.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Oil producing countries ex-Hormuz are starting to delay maintenance to keep pumping at max throughout the summer.

Kazakhstan is postponing maintenance at its top oilfield until 2027. As a result, CPC Blend crude is trading in the physical market at a 4-year low differential.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

https://t.co/zpfXWepIfq

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

$NU Option series part 2 is out, Cash-Secured Puts and Risk Reversal.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

The hype is expected. But what's surprising to me is how capital-intensive the satellite internet business is (Starlink). The low-orbit satellites have to be replaced every 3-5 years. It's more capital-intensive than maritime shipping, where the vessels can last 20-30+ years, plus you don't need $1M RSUs per employee to maintain the fleet. The rocket business is still in the red, and the AI side is a money pit.
They highlighted Starlink's EBITDA margin. But you can't exclude the D and A for a capital-intensive business.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@GaryMarcus Staying on the sidelines probably is better. Both long and short can be highly risky. Not for my nerve.

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

@unusual_whales I can't believe Warren will do it for Elon. Hmmm?
https://t.co/1SCCxypEVr

[Dragon Field @DragonFieldInvt]

$SPCX: I think it's now too late for Elon to pull the SPCX IPO, even if the market continues to sell off. But I would watch it very closely and see whether Anthropic and OpenAI would proceed or push back.
I always keep this Warren Buffett quote in my mind when it comes to high-profile IPOs. Why do you think they are giving retail investors 30% of the allocation?