InvestGeoMacro

[InvestGeoMacro @DylanPuchert]

@yanndine Calls

[InvestGeoMacro @DylanPuchert]

@mattkiu Well done. Thanks for your insights.

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

Meanwhile, the long lags of monetary policy continue to weigh on the economy, with the inventory of newly built unsold homes reaching the highest level since late 2009 and 20% of mortgages now sporting a rate above 6%.

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Expect to hear a lot of wildly inflated claims about future Saudi investment in the US over the next few days.

Don't tho expect to hear any details about how the Saudis will pay for these investments.

1/

[Warren B. Mosler @wbmosler]

@ProfSteveKeen CB's buy/hold $US financial assets to keep their currency competitive/drive exports. The $US assets are funded by public+private US def spending. With a private sector surplus gov def spending funds both so foreign savings desires=the benefit of lower taxes/more public spending.

[Warren B. Mosler @wbmosler]

Balanced US trade= a $1trillion+ annual real consumption decline @ current employment levels=a massive negative productivity shock. It adjusts via prices rising faster than income. GDP grows via employment/productivity and theoretically can continue even as living standards fall.

[Warren B. Mosler @wbmosler]

Just means demand for OPEC oil fell off a tad. They set price and sell to all who want to buy at their posted prices:

[Inevitable West @Inevitablewest]

This footage of the Spanish far-left celebrating the destruction of nuclear power plants aged liked milk…

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Thanks for having me on for a wide-ranging discussion about the tactical & more importantly, the potential strategic reasons👇 large amounts of gold are moving globally, @TuckerCarlson.

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

GDP forecast, 2024.

🇸🇳 Senegal: 8.3%
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire: 6.5%
🇹🇿 Tanzania: 5.5%
🇰🇪 Kenya: 5%
🇨🇩 DR Congo: 4.7%
🇩🇿 Algeria: 3.8%
🇳🇬 Nigeria: 3.3%
🇲🇦 Morocco: 3.1%
🇪🇬 Egypt: 3%
🇬🇭 Ghana: 2.8%
🇿🇦 South Africa: 0.9%

(IMF)

[S.L. Kanthan @Kanthan2030]

Share of US dollar in China’s cross-border transactions (including trade), by year:

2010: 85%

2024: 42%

#Dedollarization in real time.

As for Russia-China trade, 95% of it is done in Yuan and Rubles now!

[Armstrong Economics @StrongEconomics]

The Coming New Monetary System - The only way to create a neutral, NON-POLITICAL world currency would be one where international transactions are carried out in gold – BUT on a FLOATING RATE – not fixed. https://t.co/DE930HynH9

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Career risk, recency bias, USD bias, & dogma.

Losing money in bonds has not been a fireable offense since the 1970s, while losing money in gold has been a fireable offense since the 1980s

IMO the real outperformance in Gold & BTC won’t even start until these biases reverse.

[Robert Rennie @Robert__Rennie]

Industrial #Commodity #narratives 05/02/24:
- Brent falls 7.4% last week as traders focus on the Israeli-Hamas peace process
- Situation in the Gulf deteriorated markedly over the weekend with the US hitting 85 IRI targets at 7 facilities in Iraq and Syria which NSA Sullivan describes as the "beginning, not the end"
- US + UK launches strikes against 36 Houthi targets
- Houthi spokesperson says attacks "will not pass without response"
- Kpler reports oil tanker transits through the Red Sea were down 23% last month versus Nov, LPG down 65%, and LNG down 73%
- Fire at Lukoil refinery in Volgograd follows drone attack with "as much as 30% of production capacity could be taken offline"
- This is the third successful Ukrainian drone attack on Russian oil facilities with 1 commentator noting that more than 50% of Russian refinery capacity is within attack range of Ukrainian drones
- World's 5th largest copper producer, Southern Copper Corp, downgrades 2024 production guidance from 946,700t to 935,900 due to lower ore quality and water restrictions
- Bloomberg reports that the "Nickel industry has imploded" due to heavy Chinese investment in Indonesian production plus cheap labor and easy access to raw materials
- Iron ore was down 5% last week as focus turned to lack of pre-LNY buying and forecasts of a 4.7%qq increase in supply from Alliance Bernstein

[InvestGeoMacro @DylanPuchert]

@chrisreddy777_ Awesome, thanks!

[Liger Cub @realLigerCub]

John Griffin, ex right-hand man to Julian Robertson and founder of the now-closed Blue Ridge Capital, taught several classes at UVa and Columbia: The Analyst’s Edge, The Investor’s Edge, Seminar in Advanced Investment Research, and Securities Analysis and Idea Generation. Unfortunately, the syllabi for these courses are not readily available. However, @MebFaber, who attended one of Griffin's classes, has shared his "Hedge Fund Analyst Checklist" on his website: https://t.co/jl8PthQhew. Additionally, Griffin's recommended reading list can be found here: https://t.co/x1epoCu9qB

[Karin Richards @Richards_Karin]

Global debt is at a staggering $307 trillion per IFF.
Up by $100 trillion in a decade. And at 3 TIMES global GDP vs 1.015x in 1960’s (IMF).

Prior to 1971 when Nixon unpegged the $ from gold, there was a natural limit to how much money could be printed. Limit was gold in coffers.

[Alf @MacroAlf]

People: ''The stock market is booming!''

The stock market:

[SuperSport 🏆 @SuperSportTV]

HISTORY FOR SOUTH AFRICA! DRICUS DU PLESSIS IS THE NEW MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPION OF THE WORLD 🇿🇦👏
#UFC297