EdgyFin

Searching for an edge in the deep blue sea of financial markets. Be good and kind, it matters - but also be funny.

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

@hkuppy Hydra (Idra) - this is where I want to spend my last days, a little slice of heaven.

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

@iamKierraD Assuming you are right, then companies who adopt AI and layoff employees first will win the comp advantage in the end. The speed at which that strategy accelerates could greatly outpace any legislation. At what % unemployment do leaders act?

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

https://t.co/zrUOherjul

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

If flows matter, who will drive flows when boomers are risk off with net redemptions over contributions, when AI drives up unemployment, and as fertility rates continue to decline? $ORCL #boomers #AI #fertility #iRobot

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Share of consumers saying their financial situation is worse compared to a year ago due to higher prices jumped to 54% in April vs. 47% in March … now highest on record

[Tips Excel | AI Productivity @gudanglifehack]

Delete 99.8% of your digital footprint from the internet.

Here is a step-by-step guide:

[Evan Luthra @EvanLuthra]

🚨RESEARCHERS JUST MATHEMATICALLY PROVED THAT AI LAYOFFS WILL DESTROY THE ECONOMY.. AND EVERY CEO ALREADY KNOWS IT.. BUT NONE OF THEM CAN STOP..

Two researchers from UPenn and Boston University just published a paper called "The AI Layoff Trap"..

They proved something terrifying..

Every company replacing workers with AI is also firing its own customers.. Every laid-off employee is someone who used to spend money.. When enough people lose their jobs.. Nobody can afford to buy anything.. And the companies that fired everyone go bankrupt selling products to an economy with no purchasing power..

Every CEO can see this coming.. The math is obvious.. Fire workers.. Lose customers.. Lose revenue.. Collapse..

But here's the trap..

No company can afford to stop..

If you don't automate.. Your competitor will.. They cut costs.. Undercut your prices.. Steal your market share.. And you die anyway..

So every company automates.. Knowing it's collectively suicidal.. Because the alternative is dying alone while everyone else survives..

It's a Prisoner's Dilemma.. And the researchers proved it mathematically..

The numbers are already stacking up..

Block cut nearly half its 10,000 employees this year.. CEO Jack Dorsey said AI made those roles unnecessary and that "within the next year, the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion"..

Salesforce replaced 4,000 customer support agents with AI..

Goldman Sachs deployed an AI coder that lets one senior engineer do the work of a five-person team..

Over 100,000 tech workers were laid off in 2025 alone.. AI was cited as the primary driver in more than half the cases..

80% of US workers hold jobs with tasks susceptible to AI automation..

And here's what should scare policymakers..

The researchers tested every proposed solution..

Universal Basic Income.. Doesn't fix it.. It raises living standards but doesn't change a single company's incentive to automate..

Capital income taxes.. Don't fix it.. They change profit levels but not the per-task decision to replace a human..

Worker equity and profit sharing.. Narrows the gap but can't close it..

Collective bargaining.. Can't fix it.. Because automating is a dominant strategy.. No voluntary agreement between companies is self-enforcing..

Only one thing works.. A Pigouvian automation tax.. A per-task charge that forces every company to pay for the demand it destroys when it fires a worker..

The researchers call it a "Red Queen effect".. Better AI doesn't solve the problem.. It makes it worse.. Because every company sees a bigger market share gain from automating faster than rivals.. But at the end.. Everyone automates equally.. The gains cancel out.. And the only thing left is more destroyed demand..

The paper's conclusion is devastating..

This isn't a transfer from workers to company owners.. Both sides lose.. Workers lose their income.. Companies lose their customers.. It's a deadweight loss that harms everyone..

And no market force can break the cycle..

The AI layoff trap isn't a prediction.. It's already happening.. And the math says it won't stop on its own.

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

Umm No. Just stop girl.

[Fox News @FoxNews]

NEW: Kamala Harris says she's STILL considering a presidential run in 2028:

"I might."

"I'm thinking about it."

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

First, this is from the president of the United States, not my FIL from our family group chat.

Second, my favorite part is when he says “nobody’s talking about them” lol. Umm, ok Mr. President.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Trump has posted:

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

Threatening the Catholics now lol. You can’t make this shit up.

Republicans proving they are no different than the democrats who let Biden continue given his condition.

Grow a pair, get behind @JDVance, and do what needs to be done. Or get slaughtered in the midterms.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: The Trump administration gave a Vatican envoy "a bitter lecture warning that the United States has the military power to do whatever it wants—and that the Church had better take its side," per the Atlantic

[Rossium @rossium]

> be anon
> studies math and statistics since 14
> gets into Harvard for applied math
> recruited by Medallion Fund at 21
> $400k/yr, 90hr weeks for 3 years
> signals are wrong 85% of the time
> but they don't predict. they combine 50 weak signals into one
> leaves to apply the same math to events trading
> builds 50 signals in one weekend with Claude
> runs them through the combination engine
> loads $1,000
> first month: +47%
> second month: +63%
> quits job
> now makes 6 figures/month from a beachfront villa in Portugal

never before in human history has it been so easy to escape the permanent underclass

you can literally build this system using AI, and locking in for 3 months, bookmark this article & read, no matter what

- but most of you will not

[Josh Kale @JoshKale]

This is big... Anthropic just announced a model so powerful they won't release it to the public out of fear over the damage it will cause 😨

Claude Mythos Preview found thousands of zero-day exploits in every major operating system and web browser...

The numbers are hard to believe:
> $50 to find a 27-year-old bug in OpenBSD, one of the most security-hardened operating systems ever built

> Under $1,000 to find AND build a fully working remote code execution exploit on FreeBSD that grants unauthenticated root access from anywhere on the internet

> Under $2,000 to chain together multiple Linux kernel vulnerabilities into a complete privilege escalation exploit

For context: these are the kinds of findings that previously required elite security researchers working for weeks.
Anthropic engineers with no formal security training asked Mythos to find exploits overnight. They woke up to working code the next morning.

The results were so impressive Anthropic assembled Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, and seven other organizations into Project Glasswing:

A $100M defensive coalition. They're not releasing this model publicly. Instead, they're racing to patch the world's infrastructure before models like this proliferate.

[Fox News @FoxNews]

🚨 BREAKING: Trump warns 'whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again' if Iran doesn't agree to deal to end war

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

As a former FBI Financial Crimes TFO, I can say this is true.

Also, I think @JDVance would be surprised to know the SBA removed borrower criminal history disclosures from their form 1919. Now the form only asks if a borrower is “currently” under investigation.

[Chief Nerd @TheChiefNerd]

🚨 JD VANCE: “I had no idea that we do not prosecute fraud in this country if it's under $1.5 million per year … We're trying to … commit the Department of Justice to investigating all fraud and actually going after people who are doing it at the small scale of $1.4 million.”

[LayoffHedge @LayoffAI]

Dell’s 11K cut went viral two weeks ago.

Since then:

Oracle: 30,000
HSBC: 20,000
Meta: 16,000
Nokia: 14,000

We’re already tracking 100+ more companies expected to cut in the next 3 months.

Here’s the full Q1 2026 recap. Buckle up for Q2.

[Kalshi Finance @Kalshi_Finance]

**SALESFORCE JUST BORROWED $25 BILLION TO BUY BACK THEIR OWN STOCK WHILE PLANNING THE LARGEST TECH MASSACRE IN HISTORY**

Marc Benioff is about to eliminate 45,000 human beings to pay for his $50 billion stock buyback scheme

Read that again. They took on DEBT to inflate their share price while preparing to destroy nearly half their workforce

Company is sitting on $34.9 billion in annual revenue. UP 11% year over year. Most profitable quarter in company history.

Benioff made $29.9 million last year. Stock buyback will pump his personal wealth by another $180 million.

Sources inside are saying the "workforce optimization" targets every division. Sales, engineering, support, marketing. Nobody is safe.

I'm hearing middle management got the kill lists yesterday. Termination emails queued for Monday morning. Badge access revoked at midnight Sunday.

The fucking audacity: they're calling it "strategic realignment for AI efficiency"

Translation: we borrowed billions to make our stock price go up and now 45,000 families have to pay for it

Salesforce employees logging in Monday morning are about to find out if they still have jobs

If you work there, screenshot everything. Download your contacts. Update your LinkedIn tonight.

This is what happens when CEOs treat human beings like line items on a balance sheet

Benioff just turned borrowing money into a weapon of mass destruction

[George Noble @gnoble79]

$315 BILLION in stablecoins are now backed by US Treasuries.

And I don't understand why no one's questioning this.

Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch:

Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create demand for Treasuries, make it easier for people outside the United States to hold dollars.

Sounds great. Until you look at what's actually happening underneath...

The GENIUS Act passed in July 2025. First federal stablecoin framework in US history. Stablecoin market cap has grown 50% year over year. Tether alone holds $141 billion in US Treasuries, making it one of the largest holders of American government debt on the planet.

Washington's pitch is simple: every time someone in Argentina, Turkey, or Nigeria buys USDT, they're buying Treasuries by proxy. Dollar dominance strengthened. Problem solved.

And here's the part they REALLY love...

The US ran an $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2025. CBO projects $1.9 trillion this year. National debt just crossed $39 trillion. Interest payments alone now exceed $1 trillion annually.

Meanwhile, the biggest foreign buyers of Treasuries (China, Japan, Canada) have been pulling back for years. ARK Invest found that the share of Treasuries held by the largest foreign creditors dropped from 23% to just over 6% in the past 13 years. The Fed is STILL running down its balance sheet.

So who's going to buy all this debt? Washington's answer: stablecoin issuers.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said it himself: "A thriving stablecoin ecosystem will drive demand from the private sector for US Treasuries and help rein in the national debt."

Think about what that actually means.

The government is counting on a $315 billion crypto product (run largely by a company in El Salvador that just got its first real audit last week) to help finance a $1.9 TRILLION annual deficit.

Stablecoin issuers currently hold less than 2% of outstanding Treasury bills. Even if the market hits $2 trillion by 2028 like Standard Chartered projects, that's still just a rounding error against $39 trillion in total debt.

This is literally a NARRATIVE designed to make the debt problem sound manageable.

But the Federal Reserve published a study showing that for every $1 that moves from bank deposits into stablecoins, bank lending contracts by roughly 50 cents. Stablecoin issuers can't make loans. The GENIUS Act prohibits it. They can ONLY hold Treasuries, reverse repos, and cash equivalents.

So when deposits leave banks and flow into stablecoins, that money stops funding mortgages, small business loans, and commercial credit. It starts funding government debt instead.

The US Treasury itself estimated stablecoins could drain up to $6.6 TRILLION from the banking system.

That's not "strengthening the dollar." That's redirecting the lifeblood of the real economy into government IOUs while starving Main Street of credit.

And then there's the run risk nobody wants to discuss.

Fed Governor Michael Barr said it yesterday:

Stablecoin issuers have every incentive to chase higher returns on their reserves. But unlike banks, they CANNOT access the Fed's discount window. If a stablecoin run happens, issuers dump Treasuries into the market all at once.

Stablecoin inflows push Treasury yields down 2-2.5 basis points. Outflows spike yields UP 6-8 basis points. Easy in. Ugly out.

Meanwhile, Tether is the 800-pound gorilla. $185 billion in circulation. 550 million users. And until last week, it had never had a Big Four audit. It just hired KPMG after 12 years of operating with nothing but quarterly attestations.

This is the entity Wall Street is celebrating as the future of dollar dominance. A company headquartered in El Salvador that fought transparency in court twice and LOST both times.

Here's what Solomon and Mnuchin are actually telling you if you listen carefully:

Stablecoins create captive demand for short-term US government debt. Foreign governments don't want to hold Treasuries anymore. So Washington's solution is to get 550 million retail users in emerging markets to hold them instead through a digital wrapper called a "stablecoin."

The holders get zero interest. The GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits it. The issuers pocket the Treasury returns. Tether made $10 billion in profit last year. And the real economy loses credit while the government gets cheaper funding.

This is a classic Wall Street pitch to sell financial innovation as progress:

"This strengthens the system. This is good for everyone."

Then the leverage builds, the risks concentrate, and the people who sold you on it are nowhere to be found when it unwinds.

Stablecoins are NOT saving the dollar. They're a $315 billion shadow money market fund with no Fed backstop, no deposit insurance, and run dynamics that could destabilize the very Treasury market they're supposed to support.

If you want to hold dollars, hold dollars. If you want to own the asset that central banks are actually buying instead of Treasuries, you already know what that is...

🥇

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

$COPX

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

Road Ahead

1. Data Centers, $2.5T Capex.

2. $2T US Power Grid Rebuild - copper, aluminum.

3. Currency Debasement: USA $1.9% Defecit / 6.2% of GDP vs 3% average last 40 years.

4. Re-Build: Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, Israel - copper.

5. Robotics - 100M Robots next decade, copper.

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

If flows matter, who will drive flows when boomers are risk off with net redemptions over contributions, when AI drives up unemployment, and as fertility rates continue to decline? $ORCL #boomers #AI #fertility #iRobot

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

https://t.co/X8MZ92esj3

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

#MAGA #AI $ORCL

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Oracle has reportedly begun layoffs, with 30,000 employees likely to be fired, per the Deccan Herald.

[EdgyFin @EdgyFin]

Ouch.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

"Foreign central bank holdings of USTs at NY Fed fall to lowest level since 2012 in wake of Iran war"

Via @seaniechaos