ElectionsAddict

Politics/Elections. Every D is better than any R. Supporter of ALL Democrats, Big tent party advocate, Pragmatic progressive, Hate purity tests. #VoteBlue

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

My election theory

First off, I have no way to actually prove it, but I think it’s one of very few possibilities that explains elections from 2016-2024, polls + also difference between Obama vs Trump/Biden years. Short answer: it’s “the resistance”, long answer, a thread 🧵 /1

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

Losers complain, winners win.

Republicans fucked around and now they’re finding out.

10-1.

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

@SpecialPuppy1 1) Republicans gave up in CA.

2) TX already passed their redraw into law, so the average voter in CA saw the referendum as righting a wrong already committed by the opposition, wanted to balance the scale. Way easier to get voters to go along with that argument.

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

The 2 spice picks of my predictions = total failure, along with Texas Senate 😂

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Decision Desk HQ projects Kelly Ayotte (R) wins the Gubernatorial election in New Hampshire.

#DecisionMade: 11:16 PM EDT

Follow live results here:
https://t.co/mfCcHijvYb

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

@VinkemesMom @fiona_webster22 What other House race was called for Democrats? Sorry, I must have missed it. I can only use WaPo maps because of NYT paywall. This is what my screen looks like, I guess it’s a bit behind then.

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

First flip of the night for Democrats!

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Decision Desk HQ projects John Mannion (D) wins the US House election in New York's 22nd congressional district.

#DecisionMade: 10:32 PM EDT

Follow live results here:
https://t.co/McCh3uxbCa

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

@dnna1993 I’m not going to try to put sugar on a turd and try to convince you it’s a yummy pizza. I’m going to tell you the truth when it comes to election results. Good OR bad. That’s what y’all deserve! ❤️

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

I’m going to be straight with y’all because you deserve that.

In rural areas fully or near fully counted, Trump is matching or exceeding his 2020 margins. In suburban and urban areas I’m seeing Harris matching or exceeding Biden’s 2020 margins.

My bet is latter matters most.

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

@Grumpy_old_boi @PolyglotFella Cheers my friend 🍻

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

@PolyglotFella The whole “wait until 90% is counted” should be attached to every tweet I make.

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

If he isn’t already, Connecticut Dave is moving back to his home state.

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

Not going to lie, I did a double take 😂

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

Wait a second, you’re telling me that all of the small sample size crosstabs were less accurate than large subsamples of specific demographics? Knock me over with a feather.

[Swann Marcus @SwannMarcus89]

You love to see it. Now we just need their turnout high enough

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

The first sign of a suburban GOP collapse? Stay tuned for more results!

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

Holy crap!

Boone County, IN (suburb surrounding Indianapolis)

91% counted

Trump 54.4 🔴
Harris 43.9 🔵

2020:

Trump 58.1 🔴
Biden 39.6 🔵

Shift: D+8 🔵

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

If Harris and Democrats win tonight, their spending on “it’s the economy, stupid” messaging as the GOP ranted about culture war stuff will be a big reason why.

https://t.co/4eIEwyjKnQ

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

For those who may not understand, US voters are by far the most conservative on immigration topic, than any other issue. It was 50/50 for “deport all immigrants” polls over the summer and fall. So either everyone changed their mind or more Democrats turned out than expected.

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

👀

[Acyn @Acyn]

Fox just showed this exit poll 👀

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

Ok, so why do I think this will happen? Here’s a 40 tweet research thread breaking down this theory, but the TLDR is pollsters are missing Democratic voters.

Add in a net favorable viewed politician Harris + you have potent recipe to create a wave 🌊

https://t.co/HclwAeBK2T

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

My election theory

First off, I have no way to actually prove it, but I think it’s one of very few possibilities that explains elections from 2016-2024, polls + also difference between Obama vs Trump/Biden years. Short answer: it’s “the resistance”, long answer, a thread 🧵 /1

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

Election Eve Megathread!

I’m predicting a wave, here’s why 🧵👇

First: What is wave election? It’s when 1 party does 5+ points better than opponents, getting big base turnout, vast majority undecided, that overwhelms opposition. 2008, 2010, 2014 + 2018 were waves. 2 D’s, 2 R’s.

[ElectionsAddict @ElectionsAddict]

Cook Political 8-5 left 🔵
Sabato 27-13 left 🔵
Inside Elections 22-9 left 🔵

Did they expand battlefield? Yes. Democrats, Republicans spending millions of dollars in IN Gov, TX/FL/NE Sen + Trump won House districts in last stretch. If both parties invest, both see it winnable.