🇺🇸🇮🇷 Prof. Robert Pape says Trump's repeated Iran walk-backs aren't signs of peace. They show that Washington is out of moves.
Every time Trump pulls back from striking Iran, markets breathe a sigh of relief and headlines declare tensions are easing.
Prof. Robert Pape says that's the wrong conclusion.
His view is that the U.S. is trapped between two options it doesn't want. Either accept Iran's growing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, or escalate into a conflict with no clear endgame.
Neither is politically attractive. So Washington hesitates.
Pape argues the real risk is a slow grind of escalation, where rising oil prices, retaliation, economic pressure, and domestic politics gradually leave Trump with fewer and fewer alternatives.
His broader warning is even more significant: this is more than just a crisis over Iran. It's a sign that the post-1991 unipolar era is fading, while Iran continues expanding its regional influence.
His takeaway is simple: don't confuse hesitation with peace. Sometimes paralysis is just conflict waiting for its next trigger.
@ProfessorPape
I love that we’re the new Rome. Peace with Persia in the afternoon and a gladiator fight in the evening, all on the Emperor’s birthday. Another 1,000 years.
I’ve seen a lot of reminiscing about OG’s time in Toronto but haven’t seen anybody post the single funniest thing he did there: his drawing of the OVO logo
A man working as a welder at SpaceX for $28 an hour has just become a millionaire.
Juan Hernandez, who came from Mexico, welded rockets for SpaceX at $28 an hour.
SpaceX gave him $10,000 in stock when he went full time in 2015, and he bought more with every paycheck for 10 years.
$SPCX is now trading at $167, making his shares worth over $1 million.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 38 times Trump said the deal was close
Since late March he's stood in front of cameras, posted on Truth Social, and worked the phones with reporters to sell the same line, Iran's desperate, the agreement's basically done, just give it 2 weeks.
CNN sat down and actually counted them. 38 separate times.
It kicked off March 23 with "major points of agreement," even as Iran flatly denied any talks were happening at all. By late March Tehran was "begging to make a deal," by April 17 they'd supposedly "agreed to everything," and by April 30 they were "dying" for one.
Then on April 7 he announced a ceasefire that was meant to run 2 weeks while they wrapped the whole thing up.
Today, fresh off the NBA Finals, he was right back at it, this time promising the Strait of Hormuz, the oil chokepoint the whole world watches, would reopen the second a deal got signed.
Trump: "It'll open up immediately upon signing, which could be in two or three days."
The 2 weeks never end. The deal never lands. Meanwhile the ceasefire he keeps pointing to fell apart over the weekend, with Iran and Israel firing at each other again.
Here's the analytical read. The more he talks about the finish line, the further away it seems. Tehran clocks that his patience is the soft spot and plays every fake deadline for more leverage, while markets, allies, and his own public slowly stop flinching at the next big announcement.
That's the real cost. Credibility is the one thing you spend once, and he's been spending it in 2 or 3 day increments since March.
Maybe he believes it, maybe he's trying to keep oil and a nervous economy calm, maybe he figures saying it enough drags it into reality. After 38 swings and zero contact though, "two or three days" stopped meaning anything, and everyone standing outside that podium already knows it.
Source: CNN / Writer: Daniyal
Rest Easy my brother. For a guy who struck fear in so many peoples heart Anthony Johnson was a caring person. From random text to check ins during loss. What a person he was, Rumble will be missed. Sometimes life doesn’t seem fair. Horrible news #RIP#Rumblesquad@Anthony_Rumble