Elliot Chin

Harvard 25, neuro + stat. SF. sometimes well thought out sports analytics takes. Co-pres emeritus, @Harvard_Sports.

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@SpoofIdk @nfl_jersey_num Niners legend

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@CrumpledJumper Todd this is so sick wtf

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

what

[The Athletic @TheAthletic]

For fans, comparisons between Taylor Swift songs and football situations will help reveal the genius in her lyrics.

For Swifties, they're an entry point in understanding the drama that is the NFL.

Which of her songs best describes this season?

More ⤵️
https://t.co/13tJB1N5zX

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@PFF_Moo at home, that is

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@PFF_Moo mahomes has had no games as a favorite by <2 pts?

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@ericeager_ nfl is the only sport in which people haven't learned to listen to the nerds yet

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@JoshuaBurke21 @PFF_Moo yes, absolutely.

it's not a bad question, it's been asked before! but a model will take this into account. https://t.co/Ia5crHlt6u

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

No one asked, so I'll ask it

There's a fairly important part of the go for 2 down 8 discourse that is constantly ignored

What is it?

Explanation at end of my current train ride

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@inpredict Absolutely. Theoretically you could game theory yourself into a run a small % of the time there, but practically no defense is over-emphasizing the pass there as much as they should, so a run is difficult to justify.

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@benbbaldwin one of those rare instances where the benefit may be small but so is the uncertainty! https://t.co/UTB1Fa78FK

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

+1 - that Brill & Yurko paper that made some waves last year (link below) showed that our 4th down models are not actually as good as we think they are!

Meanwhile, it should be pretty obvious that going for 2 is better, even if the benefit is marginal
https://t.co/J63GoYrzTX

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@inpredict @StatsbyLopez @skepticalsports agreed, this thread reminds me of that "win probability is like blackjack" debate from last week - ideally this should be baked into the model!

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@tejfbanalytics doesn't matter! https://t.co/iXxVTjnW9z

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

sports analytics twitter is going to be (justifiably) unbearable when any 50/50 calls go to the ravens this weekend

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

+1 - that Brill & Yurko paper that made some waves last year (link below) showed that our 4th down models are not actually as good as we think they are!

Meanwhile, it should be pretty obvious that going for 2 is better, even if the benefit is marginal
https://t.co/J63GoYrzTX

[Seth Walder @SethWalder]

@benbbaldwin I strongly disagree!

First: That is a small effect decision but one where we can be certain which side is the correct result. Don't blow that!

Second: in the event the Bucs stop the Lions and score another TD -- the only way any of it matters -- the WP change is very high!

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

Super interesting project!

[Nick Lopez @nicklopez86]

Last semester, I worked with @ElliotKChin on a project applying counterfactual regret minimization to poker and testing the results against a genuine user pool. We created our solver and game entirely from scratch. Read and play against our bot here: https://t.co/wm584HPIFv

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

brock purdy

[Tej Seth @tejfbanalytics]

the 25 best EPA/play performances of the season so far

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@Stat_Ron @PerThirtySixers !!

[Elliot Chin @ElliotKChin]

@tejfbanalytics seems like this might just be a "teams that rush X number of times always win" stat rather than being causal, no?

[Golden State Valkyries @valkyries]

Coming in 2025 to the Bay Area

@WNBA BASKETBALL.

[Harvard Undergraduate Sports Analysis Collective @HUSACOfficial]

HSAC featured in @AdamMinter's Bloomberg opinion this morning. Check it out!

"'Teams that are top-heavy tend to have worse winning percentages,' explains @meron_ben , a recently graduated member of HSAC who contributed to the analysis."

[Adam Minter @AdamMinter]

Want to fix the Yankees? Send in the antitrust lawyers (or their statisticians). https://t.co/e9u1QprS0E by me for @opinion