@BCalusinski People evolve, just like cigarets they “should” find entertainment elsewhere once the phycological effects are widely known. Takes time though and like most things, intelligence to persevere.
@BCalusinski Probably the same ROI as scratch tickets at the gas station, but peeps still wonder why they are forever broke and can never catch a break. 😂
$spx $spy $Qqq $ES1! COVID low TL to recent previous resistances has perfectly rejected the last top.
Now the real crazy part is the red channel diagonal that’s started back in 2016 that broke out 2 weeks ago has now acted as SUPPORT for the last 2 attempts back into channel uptrend.
When these local low break, we’re going to have an actual -2%+ day.
This is an incredibly tough trading environment for many folks out there. If you’re struggling right now, just know that you’re not alone. All of those core principles that you learned when you first started engaging in the markets are extremely critical right now like proper risk management, leaving your ideology behind, trading only what’s in front of you etc.
I’ve gotten so many phone calls over the last week or two asking if the market has bottomed or if they should be buying the dip, and I try to explain to them everything I outline here. The next biggest question I get asked is why the market is continuing to fall. Do you remember a mere 3 months ago when the market just climbed a wall of worry and continued to rip into 6100? It’s simply the same thing, there are more sellers than buyers. Literally the backbone of our markets and this simple concept is so difficult for participants to understand.
Nobody knows where the market is truly going to bottom/top, it's a fool's game to try and guess that. All you can do is manage risk and say "what is a possible outcome?" Matter of fact, I’m not convinced that anyone knows what’s going on. A few examples: on April 7th every mainstream media outlet called a bear market and then we ripped 10% the next day, negating a “bear market.” Nearly all sell-side banks had 6200+ EOY price targets and now we are -1000pts lower. Or how about the S&P triggering a “death-cross” and now we’re a few hundred points above that trigger? The point that I’m trying to make here is that there’s so much noise out there, you gotta just stick to your own system and timeframe (whatever it might be) that works. Only you trade your portfolio, nobody else.
Something else that I see a lot on this platform is people trying to bring their own ideology into trades. Like “I’m not going to buy the S&P because Trump's policy is XYZ,” or "I can't long Tesla because Elon Musk is doing XYZ.” We’re here to extract money from the markets, piss off, and do it again the next day. If that’s tough for you to understand then this might not be the profession that’s best for you. The market does not care what you have to say or think. I can’t even begin to tell you how many times I’ve traded earnings on companies where it’s the first time seeing the ticker. I don’t care what the CEO is saying or their belief system, I’m trying to make money, it’s plain and simple. So leave your ideologies at the door.
There doesn’t always have to be an explanation for every price movement. Markets are like complex adaptive systems, stop thinking that you know better than it. Again, at the end of the day, if there are more buyers than sellers- prices will go higher. Likewise, if there are more sellers than buyers- prices will go lower. So the next time that you see the S&P 500 up 12% in one day and then down 4% the next and you’re wondering why, just remember this.
So stick to what you do best, leave your ideology behind, manage risk, and please, just trade what’s in front of you my friends- not what you want to happen. Cheers🍻
@CyclesFan If I hear orderly one more time...... 10% in 3 days on spy isn't orderly, it just means positioning wasn't heavily affecting the vix index. Hindsight is 20/20.