EnergyBasis🛢️

(Cash - Futures = Basis) Series 3 #OOTT “Oil is like a wild animal. Whoever captures it has it.” - J. Paul Getty - Man City Fan @HoustonCityzens

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will have "no choice" but to accept a US deal with Iran, because he "calls the shots," per FT.

Details include:

1. "I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots," Trump said

2. Trump said today's missile strikes by Iran will not impact the deal

3. Trump said he believes "the deal is going on"

4. Trump said that Iran’s strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations

Oil prices are trading higher.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

A senior U.S. official told me the White House didn't give a "green light" to the Israeli strike in Beirut. "We had no part in this", a second U.S. official said

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT TELL

US Embassy in Jerusalem: “Security Alert: As a result of the current security situation in Israel, including Home Front Command alerts for multiple regions, the U.S. Embassy has directed all U.S. government employees and their family members to shelter in place, and be prepared to move to a protected shelter in the event of a red alert, until further notice.

Operating Status: The U.S. Embassy Jerusalem and Embassy Branch Office Tel Aviv consular sections are closed on Monday, June 8.  In the event of missile, rocket fire, or hostile aircraft intrusion, a “red alert” siren may be activated. Follow the instructions from local authorities and the Israeli Home Front Command and seek shelter immediately.”

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🚨🚨More quotes from my phone call with president Trump: “The Iranian strikes didn’t hurt anybody. Hopefully Israel is not going to retaliate. If Bibi strikes them back it’s just gonna keep going like the last 47 years, or the last 3000 years"
🚨🚨Trump added: "We are very close to a final deal with Iran. It is going to be a good deal. I don’t want it to blow up because of what is happening now"
🚨🚨Trump stressed: "I am going to call Bibi right now and tell him not to retaliate. Each of them had their fun. Israel had its strike and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one"

[IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) @iribnews_irib]

🚨 BREAKING: Missile alert in Israel now.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Tank Bottom: Europe, Singapore next

[U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM]

🚫 CLAIM: Iran claims it fired warning shots at U.S. warships in the Gulf of Oman, forcing American vessels to “retreat” toward the Indian Ocean. FALSE.

✅TRUTH: Iranian forces did NOT attack or fire at U.S. Navy warships. Doing so would be a gross violation of the ceasefire. U.S. forces continue to operate freely in regional waters while fully enforcing the ongoing blockade against Iran.

[U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM]

🚫 CLAIM: Iran is now claiming it has targeted a U.S. Navy destroyer in the Gulf of Oman.

✅ TRUTH: Iran is lying. U.S. military assets at sea continue to fly, sail, and operate safely and unimpeded.

[Mark @Mark4XX]

ART BERMAN'S BASE CASE: OIL SPIKES TO $160 THEN STABILIZES PERMANENTLY AT $110

Petroleum geologist Art Berman built a probability model for the current oil crisis that rejects political theater and quick deals. He treats every forecast as a distribution of outcomes because the situation has no historical precedent. His base case carries the highest weight and it points to a permanent break from the energy world of 2025.

ART BERMAN'S PROBABILITY MODEL

➡️ He maps best case, base case, and worst case scenarios instead of offering single predictions because no one can know the exact path through unprecedented disruption.
➡️ The best case assumes a perfect deal by early June yet still delivers only 50 percent of normal flows by the end of 2026 due to demining, insurance delays, and weeks of tanker queuing.
➡️ Even that optimistic path leaves three quarters of 2026 operating under severely reduced energy supplies with catastrophic economic consequences.

THE BASE CASE THAT DRIVES EVERYTHING

➡️ Iran has no incentive to ever fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and will likely maintain control indefinitely.
➡️ Restarting shut-in production faces massive lags from damaged reservoirs, lost investment confidence, and infrastructure that may never fully recover.
➡️ The global system faces irreversible change with no realistic path back to 2025 economic conditions.

THE OIL PRICE PROJECTION

➡️ In the realistic base case oil prices will almost certainly spike into the 150 to 160 dollar per barrel range by summer.
➡️ Extreme prices trigger demand destruction that pulls Brent back down to around 100 to 105 dollars.
➡️ Prices then slowly rise and stabilize in the 105 to 115 dollar per barrel range through 2027 and likely beyond.

WHY THIS SHOCK IS 60 TO 99 TIMES FASTER

➡️ The rate of supply loss is 60 to 99 times faster than the greatest previous oil shocks in recorded history.
➡️ No rapid solutions like vaccines or policy reversals exist this time to cushion the blow.
➡️ Inventories have masked the crisis so far but those savings are running out fast and the full impact is coming.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Art Berman's model shows the world just suffered its greatest energy blunder in modern history by jeopardizing the entire global economy with one move.

Oil will spike hard then settle into a permanently higher range because the old supply system is broken beyond repair.

#OilPrices #ArtBerman #EnergyCrisis #OilShock #HormuzBlockade #DemandDestruction #NewOilNormal
HT: YouTube @PalisadesRadio @aeberman12

[Michael (Hedge Fund Manager) @HedgeFundFomo]

I remember back in 1929 when the S&P 500 hit a 10-week win streak and semiconductor stocks were on fire

Do you know what happened next?

Yep, that's right

An epic Black Wednesday Crash

See you guys tomorrow

[Michael (Hedge Fund Manager) @HedgeFundFomo]

Just heard from a friend in the oil wells

Asked him what the price of oil will be in 2-3 months, and if it's true that inventory levels are dangerously low

Here's what he said:

"I am trapped in a fucking oil well. Stop asking me questions and call for help! I am about to fucking drown in oil you idiot!"

Wow!

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

KUWAITI ARMY SAYS AIR DEFENCES CURRENTLY INTERCEPTING HOSTILE MISSILE AND DRONE ATTACKS

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

Today’s Iranian front pages are particularly interesting because they reveal how Tehran is trying to frame the Lebanon escalation internally.

- Kayhan openly argues that “the answer to fire is fire,” presenting military pressure as the only language Israel understands.
IRGC linked Javan adopts a more strategic tone, suggesting that deterrence itself is the mechanism through which a ceasefire can eventually be imposed.
Vatan-e Emrooz goes even further by emphasizing a “credible Iranian warning” and explicitly linking Beirut’s southern suburbs with northern Israel through the logic of mutual vulnerability.

- What is striking is that none of these papers are really talking about Hezbollah as an isolated Lebanese actor anymore. Lebanon is increasingly presented as part of Iran’s broader regional deterrence architecture.

- At the same time, these newspapers are not celebrating unlimited war. Even the hardest headlines repeatedly combine deterrence with concepts like “credible warning,” “imposed ceasefire,” and pressure designed to shape negotiations.
In other words, the Iranian debate increasingly looks less like “war vs diplomacy” and more like an attempt to use calibrated escalation as negotiating leverage without triggering a full regional collapse.

#Iran #Lebanon

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Iran hasn’t responded yet to the latest US draft.

“The final text from Iran is still under discussion in Tehran and no response has been sent yet,” Iran’s semi-official Mehr reports, citing a person close to the Iranian negotiating team.

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

"I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut... I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop." - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸

[Abdulkhaleq Abdulla @Abdulkhaleq_UAE]

وكالة تسنيم الإيرانية 
1 السلع الأساسية كانت تصل إلى ايران عبر الإمارات
2 الصادرات من الصين إلى ايران لا بد ان تمر عبر الإمارات
3 مدفوعات ايران التجارية تتم عبر الإمارات
4 اعتماد ايران الاستراتيجي على الإمارات لا بديل له
5 ايران تحتاج إلى الإمارات اكثر من حاجة الإمارات إلى ايران

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN SIGNALS IT IS STICKING TO ITS ORIGINAL POSITION IN NUCLEAR TALKS, WITH NO MAJOR CONCESSIONS EXPECTED

TEHRAN CONTINUES TO REJECT KEY U.S. DEMANDS, INCLUDING HANDING OVER HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM STOCKPILES AND CHANGES TO ITS CORE NUCLEAR POLICY

#BREAKING

[UKMTO Operations Centre @UK_MTO]

JMIC Advisory Note: 006-26 (Blockade Reminder)

Click here to view the full advisory note⤵️
https://t.co/Hp4vuJbzue

#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

🚨 BREAKING: The U.S. has launched a self-defense military operation against IRGC targets on Iran’s Qeshm Island, marking another escalation in tensions with Tehran.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*CHEVRON WOULD NOT PAY IRAN TOLL FOR STRAIT OF HORMUZ, CEO SAYS

*CHEVRON HAS SIX SHIPS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ CURRENTLY, CEO SAYS

*CHEVRON SEES MORE PIPELINES BUILT TO BYPASS STRAIT OF HORMUZ