Crudehead🛢

Oil analyst formerly known as Lord Crudehead: funder of hedges; professional drinker of your milkshake. #OOTT

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

The IEA better be getting ready for another SPR #oil release for Aug-Oct.

Give the market what it wants.

#OOTT

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

@maxseddon More importantly, who’s Stephen Mao when he’s at home?

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

Sell crude the ‘MOU rumour/vibes’, buy it on the ‘MOU release’

#OOTT

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

I wonder if they're actually going to release the text of the deal this time or if it's just going to be another vibes-based ceasefire where the deal is whatever various American/Iranian/Pakistani leaks claim it to be

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

Why can't he capitalize 'bp'?
Very irritating.
#OOTT

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

MUST READ: BP former chairman Albert Manifold issues a lengthy statement setting his view of his tenure at the British oil company. And he hints strongly about clashes over “unnecessary or excessive expenditure.”

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

2/ But since it is not clear and not obvious what defines a state secret then everything and anything is a state secret.

Bottom line is China will do what it needs to do for China.

Why have an SPR if you are not going to use it?

#OOTT

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

1/ Welcome to the China grey area.

If China is not SPR releasing then we will never know.

If China is releasing we will never officially (or semi- officially) know.

If you were certain that China was releasing & had evidence/sources you run the risk of jail time.

#OOTT

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

The scale of the reduction in Chinese oil imports is increasingly difficult to explain with available data.

On paper, Beijing is currently running its economy with ~1/4 less oil than pre-war. But demand destruction (or shift in petchem feedstock) can hardly explain *all* of it. So is China drawing hard on difficult-to-track commercial stocks of refined products? Has it tapped underground SPR sites? All of the above?

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

For all the millennials out there: Blackstone IPO’d in June 2007.

On the day that was in it CNBC interviewed Tom Wolfe live from the NYSE: “We may be witnessing the end of capitalism as we know it."

Mic drop comment.

Rest is history…

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

Jim Cramer said he is worried that the SpaceX IPO could be ‘destructive’ for the rest of the stock market - CNBC

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

What's "Motherhood and apple pie" in mandarin?

#OOTT

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

On Iran:
US Says Xi Made Clear China Opposes Militarization of Hormuz

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

Thinking more about this. This is almost exactly how the Chandlers (secretive Kiwi multi billionaires) made all their money. No 5 ten baggers in a row per se but 5 multi baggers, in a row, rolling the entire stack forward each time (with leverage.

Went from a few hundred k to >$10bn over 25yrs or something like that

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

The other point is - and it’s one I really agree with - that despite the facetious framing it’s really an affirmation of massive concentration. Forget the 10 baggers, you need to make massively concentrated bets to build wealth, if you are starting small. Diversification does nothing for you if you don’t have your chip stack at the beginning.

That is - max conviction; high concentration; oh and you have to be right.

Upside/downside skew is the real big differentiator in my personal worldview vs Wasteland (I’m guessing) but that’s a separate discussion

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

Word up.

#OOTT

[Mason Hamilton🛢📊⛽️ @T_Mason_H]

For scale: The average annual GLOBAL oil & natural gas CAPEX for 2022-2025 was ~$575bn...

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

This is excellent.

But it is also a post on LinkedIn that is worth 5 mins of your life reading. Unlike everything else on LinkedIn.

[Jamie Webster @websterdrake]

After one too many conversations of “but the futures curve says…” I put together a short deck to explain that no it doesn’t

https://t.co/jVEr66eksH

@Rory_Johnston @chigrl @gbrew24 @JoeMcMonigle @MBazilian @T_Mason_H @SheDrills @JavierBlas @ArjunNMurti @Bob_McNally @kevinbookdc @AzizSapphire

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

@tleilax___ may have caught on camera some US navy ships on fire?

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

Must say this is is pure genius (but dangerously close to the rabbit hole)

#OOTT

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

Is there a large [ex-IEA/OECD] SPR in the room [monthly #oil balances] with us right now?

#OOTT

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

Must say this is is pure genius (but dangerously close to the rabbit hole)

#OOTT

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Some ships are burning hard in the designated "safe" Omani water transit corridor.

Likely two ships drifting, maybe three.

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

The military top brass of the IRGC have been very quiet over the past 24 hours....

[Morgan Downey @morgan_downey]

I’ve decided to make Oil 101 online second edition free.

Because clearly the world needs more experts before the next spike hits.

Grab it now while you still can and pretend like me that you saw it coming.

https://t.co/XDgbbMHc7W

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

@rurunlogistics Bingo

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

The first buzzword of this Strait of Hormuz oil crisis was 'air pocket'.

The next buzzword will be 'sequencing'.

#OOTT

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

@JavierBlas ha! no need. My life (work + personal) is one big psychodrama...

[Crudehead🛢 @cbjom]

Apparently* Trump's whole depiction of 'exploding pipelines' is remarkably similar to the dramatic opening first chapter of a Tom Clancy book (1986): 'Red Storm Rising'.

*I don't read Tom Clancy.

#OOTT

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

COLUMN: Donald Trump's assertion that Iran's oil industry is about to “explode” shows a misunderstanding of the effect of the US naval blockade.

@Opinion

https://t.co/j9w99iyoZN