Alexey Eremenko

Control Risks, political analysis, post-Soviet space. Views my own. RT not endorsement.

[Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti]

Is the West losing interest in #Ukraine?
Interviews by Zelensky and Zaluzhny reflect Ukraine's challenge of keeping the West engaged, for @SpecCoffeeHouse
Not my title, but if I had to answer it, I'd say not yet, but it's possible hence a PR campaign
https://t.co/GlbDVsVGJj

[simon saradzhyan @saradzhyan]

Some numbers ahead of 2nd Russia-Africa summit to put the relationship in perspective: More numbers in this RM blog post: https://t.co/oGEHBWL20e

[Nataliya Vasilyeva @Nat_Vasilyeva]

Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine 461 days ago. That war was bound to boomerang on Moscow sooner or later.
As a Muscovite I have a personal connection to the drone attack on Moscow this morning.

[Pavel Podvig @russianforces]

A few thoughts about missile defense in the last night's missile attack. First, I'm cautious about the "all intercepted" claim. Of course, I'd much rather see this being true (or, indeed, that no missile launched to begin with). But even if some went through, intercepts matter 1/

[Lilia Yapparova @lilia_yapparova]

ФСБ отправляет агентов под легендами преследуемых «активистов» и «журналистов» переходить американскую границу, заказывает экс-боевикам «Имарата Кавказ» ликвидации в Украине и всерьез обсуждает убийства афганских политиков; я честно офигевала пока писала https://t.co/l8XhNDTsxK

[Konrad Muzyka - Rochan Consulting @konrad_muzyka]

Since late April, Moscow has stepped up air and missile strikes on targets across Ukraine. Although strikes occur every few days (compared to every two weeks during winter), the number of missiles used in these strikes is too small to deliver tangible results.

[Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman]

Will the five Central Asian states and Mongolia become the world's first "sanctions locked" countries?

If China is one day targeted by a major Western sanctions program, these countries won't be able to trade by road or rail without going through a sanctioned jurisdiction.

[Cloooud |🇺🇦 @GloOouD]

The continuation of the battle between the Ukrainian military and the beaver appeared on the network

Unfortunately, after the enemy was pushed back from the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he struck with renewed vigor, completely taking control of the trench

[Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien]

The transcript of Secretary Austin’s and General Milley’s post Ramstein press conference has been released. There was lots on the Reaper incident, but I’m more interested in the course of the war and a few things stand out. https://t.co/yXLiJTdX7Q

[Luca Anceschi @anceschistan]

Two pieces capturing the difficult energy predicament currently experienced by #Kazakhstan + #Uzbekistan. Here, @TUmarov explains how short-sighted energy policies continue to limit execution of foreign policy agendas that aim at loosening ties w #Russia. https://t.co/zXJH7dvldy

[Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti]

Prigozhin’s increasingly vitriolic war of words with the Russian MOD over ammo supplies suggests chickens are coming home to roost after he thought he was able to prosecute multiple vendettas 1/

[Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael]

A few thoughts on the Russian winter offensive, which began 3+ weeks ago, and has so far yielded little progress for RU forces. Poor force quality, loss of junior officers, ammunition, and equipment constraints limit Russian offensive potential. Thread. 1/

[Franz-Stefan Gady @HoansSolo]

I know this is not the space for nuance but believe me you can be both critical of Germany‘s reluctance to supply Leopard II MBTs & still be realistic about their likely impact on the battlefield & e.g. point out that they won’t be “Wunderwaffen” (“miracle weapons”) even if…

[Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 @AlexGabuev]

🧵🇨🇳🇷🇺
Does China distance itself from Russia because of war against Ukraine? A terrific @FT piece helps to understand how Beijing wants its policy towards Moscow to be seen in Western capitals. Spoiler alert: the real policy might be very different. Let me help to unpack it. 1/

[Mike Martin MP 🔸 @ThreshedThought]

There’s been a few developments in Ukraine over the run up to Xmas.

Three things to watch, I’d say.

[Sergey Radchenko @DrRadchenko]

On the question of why protests are breaking out in China and in Iran but *not* in Russia. This has nothing to do with any kind of predisposition for authoritarianism or some special degree of subservience that the Russians supposedly possess. Let's look at what's happening.

[Janis Kluge @jakluge]

How does the EU oil embargo affect Russian #budget revenue? Quick and dirty calculation: It could double #Russia's deficit in 2023.
Russia plans to get 8.9 trillion RUB oil/gas revenue in 2023. This would allow the budget to have a deficit of only 2% of GDP next year. 1/

[Jack Watling @Jack_Watling]

There has been a lot of discussion around the effects of winter on operations. I thought I’d outline a couple of aspects of winter fighting that are both critical and often under appreciated. BLUF: Winter will likely favour the Ukrainian military. 1/17

[Max Fras @maxfras]

New "Kazakhstan" chocolate advert with a young Russian refugee crossing on foot into the country.

- What is this?
- This is freedom
- Kazakhstan. Feel the taste of freedom

[Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael]

A few thoughts below in a Q&A with Kyiv Independent. Had the opportunity to meet with some of the members from their great team @IAPonomarenko and @olya_rudenko when I visited Ukraine last month.