Eric

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/n

It is critically important to understand what markets are pricing in.

But, do not confuse this with "therefore this is what will happen." I cannot emphasize this distinction enough.

So while I always post charts showing what the market are expecting (the most famous is the fed fund futures probability chart), do not confuse this with thinking this is what will happen.

This get me to a Bloomberg story posted yesterday.
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It’s still early, and things can get fluid when financial stress is afoot. But amid warnings of a banking crisis, a credit-fomented recession, pivoting central banks and stagflation, the best strategy so far — particularly in stocks — has been to sit still.

The S&P 500 just capped its second straight up week, and while Treasuries have dealt body blows to short sellers, holding on through the worst volatility in four decades would’ve reaped sizable profits.
---

Yes, they offer a bunch of caveats, but the message is clear, the stock market has held together for two week, "so therefore" all is well with the economy.

Like I noted above, this confuses what the market prices with what will comes next.

These are not the same things!

Some examples, of dramatic events that happened at once and market pricing right after it.

The most obvious is Lehman

The black line is the S&P 500's movement since March 8 (they day before we knew there were banking problems) vs Lehman's bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.

The next 13 days after these events, the stock market returns were very similar, then the TARP vote failed, another unexpected event, and the bottomed dropped out of the market. Eventually the S&P lost nearly 50% from its high.

https://t.co/L80AQeBaDl

[db @tier10k]

[DB] US Says Signature Bank Closed Today by State Authority: BBG

[Robert W Malone, MD @RWMaloneMD]

BREAKING: NHS Director confirms Hospitals lied about Cause of Death to create illusion of COVID Pandemic – The Expose https://t.co/2BhhriMZqJ

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The World Economic Forum should control the world

[Gold Telegraph ⚡ @GoldTelegraph]

BREAKING NEWS

SAUDI ARABIA IS OPEN TO DISCUSSIONS ABOUT TRADE IN CURRENCIES OTHER THAN THE US DOLLAR

Here we go…

[BullionStar @BullionStar]

We have enough gold to exchange for oil - Bank of Ghana: "The central bank stated that it was well-positioned to meet the transactional demand of 160,000 ounces of gold per month." https://t.co/utM0wiGYrr

[Eric @Eric_Terry_]

@WifeyAlpha “What good is it for someone to gain the whole world, yet forfeit their soul?”
Mark 8:36 NIV
https://t.co/BhUcTdMUXR

[Stefano Bottaioli @stebottaioli]

$SILVER the stars are aligning in favor of Silver. in 12 months the results will be surprising and not having followed the signal will have been a mistake .... I'll wait for you on my blog https://t.co/CQuFNj9YeQ

[Eric @Eric_Terry_]

@MichaelAArouet How about a neutral reserve currency… Gold perhaps?

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

This is the highest mortgage cost as a percentage of household income in decades...another reason home ownership is unaffordable for many.

Prices have to come down as rates aren't likely to do so soon.

[Eric @Eric_Terry_]

@MarketOmega @zerohedge =higher hurdle rate to break even in real terms

[Eric @Eric_Terry_]

@stlgotmynikeson @Schuldensuehner Wonder what happened in August of 71 right around the 15th?

[Eric @Eric_Terry_]

@CJUNilsson @Schuldensuehner Bingo!

[Keith Weiner @RealKeithWeiner]

@SantiagoAuFund America was the first (only?) country founded on a moral principal, rather than by conquest or historical accident.

America is one of few countries that fought, not to loot or enslave, but for moral principal.

She is now abandoning this principal. But that does not undo it.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

This useless pet rock is less than 3% away from record levels on the monthly chart.

Never forget:

Gold is money, everything else is credit.

[Eric @Eric_Terry_]

@aaronhyden 💯

[Eric @Eric_Terry_]

@UpshamR @DowGoldEquals1 2026?

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

Anyone else notice that all the people who were very quick to attribute every death (no matter the actual cause) to Covid over last two years...are noq asking others not to rush to judment and avoid attributing the number of young adults having heart attacks to the vaccine...?

[808 @prpl8]

Money Changes Everything