Curly Chen

健身，右派偏自由主义

[Curly Chen @Fangchen0105]

Ai agent，侧重cpu决策逻辑，调用api。
以及各Ai应用落地情况 ，包括特斯拉无人驾驶等等，AI大考年。
AMD
INTC
RKLB

26年底印证

[一起发财 @yiqifacai]

2026企业AI Token支出大调查：无脑烧钱时代结束了？
SemiAnalysis 团队最近与超50家大企业深度交流后发现，企业内部的 AI Token 消耗，正从年初的“无序竞赛”全面转向“预算管理”！
总结了几个极其核心的洞察，打破了目前的媒体叙事👇
1️⃣ 媒体报道的“Token超支”被严重夸大
新闻里天天说大厂 Token 预算爆炸，但真相是：少数头部客户贡献了绝大部分收入。超支案例（如 Uber、Meta）多源于内部激励不当和监管松懈，并非普遍现象。AI 实验室的 API 收入根本没有大幅削减的风险。
2️⃣ 预算标准天差地别，没有统一答案
企业都在设上限，但金额差异极大：
🔹 紧缩型：航天、制药企业约 $250-$500/月
🔹 宽松型：网络安全公司初级 $800/月，高级 $1600-$4000/月
🔹 财大气粗型：Workday、Stripe 约 $2000/月
💡 最成熟的做法是“软性限制”——超支找 manager 谈话，而不是直接断网。
3️⃣ “抠门”经济学：员工与公司的极限拉扯
为了省 Token，大家各显神通：
⚙️ 公司降级默认模型（把 Opus 换成 Sonnet，关闭高级模式）。
🤫 员工学会“钻空子”：先用 Microsoft 365 免费的 Copilot 聊天、列大纲，再去用按量计费的 Claude/Codex 干活。
4️⃣ AI 成了“人力杠杆”，打工人更累了？
一家美国大航司直接把 Token 预算和项目预期收入挂钩。虽然 AI 把过去一周的活儿缩短到了几小时，但公司立刻拔高了产出预期。打工人发现：效率变高了，自己反而比以前更忙了……
5️⃣ 市场远未见顶，编程是绝对主力
财富500强企业在 AI 上的投入其实还很低（多数远低于 $2000/员工/年），S型增长曲线还有巨大空间。目前 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 超过 70% 的收入都来自“编程”用例。接下来，网络安全和白领知识工作将成为新的爆发点。
🌟 总结
企业仍在持续投入 AI，只是花钱变得更聪明了。将 Token 分配与业务 ROI 挂钩，在控成本的同时榨取生产力，才是未来的新常态

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

China's Real Estate Market has erased all gains from the last 20 years

[Curly Chen @Fangchen0105]

Big news! Token bank

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Nvidia officially launches program to let AI startups swap compute for revenue share

[Money Quotes @MoneyQuotesX]

Make money. Act broke. Be unknown.

[Dissident West @dissidentwest]

According to Mamdani this is how New York City was built.

[Naval @naval]

Happy Birthday America, Land of the Free.

Don’t give up on the First, Second, Fourth, and Ninth Amendments.

They’re unique, and your freedom - and the worlds’ - depends on them.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Well said

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

10 WAYS TO PLAY ROBOTICS IN 2026

1. $TER tests AI chips & owns the cobots through Universal Robots
2. $NOVT precision photonics & motion inside surgical & industrial robots
3. $OUST eyes & perception for physical AI machines that need to see & map physical world
4. $HIMX provides vision & display chips that help robots process images, depth & sensor inputs at edge
5. $AMBQ low power edge AI layer for robots & devices that need intelligence without burning massive amounts of energy
6. $ON becomes physical AI edge stack after acquiring $SYNA combining power, sensing, connectivity & edge AI for robotics
7. $SYM warehouse automation pure play using robotics & software to redesign how goods move through fulfillment centers
8. $VPG sits in force sensing & precision measurement layer that helps robots understand pressure, weight & real world movement
9. $TSLA humanoid platform bet with Optimus combining custom hardware, AI inference, autonomy software & real world manufacturing scale
10. $CCXI gives public market exposure to Agility Robotics which is one of clearest pure play humanoid robotics companies through its Digit warehouse robot

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Be SemiAnalysis:

- Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash.

Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted

- Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.

[Curly Chen @Fangchen0105]

Sadly, I lost my mother when I was 24. I’m 31 now and have achieved financial freedom, but she is no longer here to share in it or enjoy the life I’ve built.

[Dear Son. @DearS_o_n]

If your mother is alive, may she live long enough to witness your success with her own eyes.

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

Too much confusion about $META’s so called “excess compute.”

It doesn’t mean demand is declining.

You have to accept that most of the demand is concentrated at three big AI labs that have real consumer and B2B businesses—OpenAI, Anthropic, Google.

$META and $SPCX have excess compute because their AI businesses are yet to be competitive. What matters is whether the top 3 frontier labs can make productive use of extra compute. So far they achieved that as their revenues closely tracked their compute capacity.

Also look at the exploding inference demand from open-weight models and it’s not hard to see compute supply will remain tight for years.

Compute is like capital now. Somebody has capital but can’t deploy it productively doesn’t mean others can’t deploy it as well.

Long $META, long neoclouds.

[Dear Son. @DearS_o_n]

You're a man. Act broke. Delete food delivery apps. Drive a modest car. Live in a cheap apartment. Keep a simple wardrobe. Ignore their judgment. Stack cash. Invest, invest, invest. Set yourself up for life.

[Curly Chen @Fangchen0105]

True

[lidang 立党 （劝人卖房/学CS/买SP500/纳100/OpenAI/Anthrop第一人） @lidangzzz]

列位，您记住了。

无论杭州宣传任何概念，包括智慧城市、杭州六小龙、战略新中心、余杭科技城、AI第一城、数字经济第一城、都市圈协同、最具幸福感城市、5+3产业、万亿产业集群，

本质上都是城市宣传片，核心目的是为了骗你过去看房、买房的。

[Allen 热评（文鑫） @liuyuxin89064]

2022年5月10日，习近平在庆祝中国共产主义青年团成立100周年大会上讲话间隙，突然转头看向其右侧的栗战书，并低声表示“这也得鼓掌！”，全场随即领会其意，才响起掌声🤔

[Tim Denning @Tim_Denning]

I regret to inform you that personal growth comes from hitting rock bottom, losing everything, bankruptcy, divorce, or the death of a loved one.

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

🇲🇽 Mexico now has its own “Batman”: He hunts motorcycle thieves at night and duct-tapes them to poles

In Lagos de Moreno, Jalisco state, five men have already been found tied to lampposts. Some had their mouths taped, showed signs of beating, and stolen motorcycles were left next to them. Locals have dubbed the vigilante the “Mexican Batman.”

Police said that at this time the tied men are being treated as victims rather than criminals.

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

Probably the most bullish thing I’ve seen recently on the AI buildout.

Assuming 8% cost of capital, 30% operating margin and 5 years of depreciation, hyperscaler capex turns positive roughly at 1.7-1.8x revenue/D&A.

We are still far from there, but the progress is promising.

[Noah @antibearthesis]

Investors who know what’s about to happen

[Max For AI @MaxForAI]

tmd中国AI真的疯了，第一见国家鼓励个人贷款买AI的😅

原文：

财联社6月18日电，商务部等8部门关于加快“人工智能+消费"发展的实施意见，意见提出，加大财政等资金支持力度。

统筹用好现有资金渠道，推动人工智能技术在消费领域的普及应用，落实好数码和智能产品购新政策，鼓励地方在消费品以旧换新政策框架内，自主制定实施补贴政策，重点支持“人工智能+”行动明确的新一代智能终端等消费。

用好个人消费贷款财政贴息政策支持消费者购买人工智能相关产品。

鼓励金融机构围绕消费者购买人工智能产品的金融需求开发相关金融产品和服务。

发挥国家人工智能产业投资基金作用，助力“人工智能+消费”发展。

鼓励个人消费贷款买AI产品，这种口径之前从来没有过没见过。。。。

准备刷花呗充Qwen了，或者买昇腾950🤣

[包叔 @baoshu88]

在全球科技大牛市中，中国科技股步入熊市...港股又一次内外双打，刚刚IPO全球第一，遇到了内资严防外流，外资避险回流美国，周边台日韩屡创新高吸走流动性，跟2021年的“防止资本无序扩张”那拨港股绞肉机太相似了，不砸到底不罢休。